The Inevitable "Trade-up" Thread

[thefuzz]

DG, and I for that matter never think that teams are "one player away" from a Lombardi.

Just too many variables in the game for that....injuries, bad games, etc....I'm never one to mortgage the future on a player outside of a Blue Chip QB.

[rayzor]

No trading up in first round. That was one of Hurney's biggest mistakes. You don't recover from that for a long time.

Trading up in the second. .. that i can get into. Quite likely that happens, Imo. 

 

[Mr. Scot]

2 hours ago, rayzor said:

No trading up in first round. That was one of Hurney's biggest mistakes. You don't recover from that for a long time.

Trading up in the second. .. that i can get into. Quite likely that happens, Imo. 

And in the name of all that's holy, do not trade away your future first rounders.

[bLACKpANTHER]

[DeSim]

24 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

And in the name of all that's holy, do not trade away your future first rounders.

Wasn't Hurney thinking about trading up for Jimmy Clausen by giving away the 1st rounder of the following year that ended up being Cam?

[Mr. Scot]

25 minutes ago, DeSim said:

Wasn't Hurney thinking about trading up for Jimmy Clausen by giving away the 1st rounder of the following year that ended up being Cam?

So the story goes...

[panfanman]

Don't see any value in trading up or down this year in the 1st.  Our scouts and Dave are too good at finding picks right where we are.  I'd rather aquire more picks by moving down.  I harp about this every year.  This year however more than ever I don't see a trade down happening.  Giving up that one year extension option is just too much to consider.

[ctrcat]

1 hour ago, panfanman said:

Don't see any value in trading up or down this year in the 1st.  Our scouts and Dave are too good at finding picks right where we are.  I'd rather aquire more picks by moving down.  I harp about this every year.  This year however more than ever I don't see a trade down happening.  Giving up that one year extension option is just too much to consider.

Hypothetical-the Browns go with BPA over QB at #2.  A QB target they like free falls all the way to 30.  They give us 32 AND a day 2 pick NEXT YEAR for 30, then game on.  They get in front of their long time nemesis Denver to get their QB with a 5th year option.  We 100% get our guy at 32, and, while he won't have the 5th year option, we would have another talent coming in next year playing on a rookie deal during that would be "5th year" four years from now.

[davos]

I agree with the consensus.  We may likely trade up but it will NOT be in the 1st.  I can see us moving up for a guy we have pegged as a 1st rounder in the 2nd much like last year. 

[KB_fan]

(A bit off topic..., but I don't want to start a new thread just to link to a thread I created in the draft forum!  Hopefully the thread I'm referencing here will be helpful for analyzing what moves up or down would provide good value.)

Over in the draft forum, I posted a series of tables regarding the top 300 draft prospects, creating a table for each position noting the grades / projected rounds (using the NFL.com grades & rankings) for each player in the top 300.  There are 6 centers, 34 CBs, 40 WRs, 27 DEs, 34 DTs.... 

(Think of these as color coded "cheat sheets" to quickly help one see where prospects at each position might be drafted.)

I then also looked at the patterns for each round.  Positions are quite unevenly distributed in the grades.  This draft appears to be quite top heavy towards Defense. 

Round 1 grades:  Dline players dominate the top 30 - 35 prospects the draft, especially the bottom half of "round 1 grades" from 16 - 33.

Round 2 grades are a more diverse group.  Offense slightly dominates this group of players (54%) with Oline, WRs, TEs & RBs well represented.

Round 3 grades:  CBs & Safeties dominate this section of the player grades.

Round 4 grades:  WRs & QBs predominate.

You'll find the thread here:

At some point in the next 5 - 10 days, I hope to get back to the series I started in early March looking at the top 15 - 20 prospects for certain key positions and how recent mock drafts reflect on their availability in different rounds.  (I did this already for DEs and DTs.  I hope to update both of those analyses to reflect recent changes, and also cover CBs, Safeties, WRs, and maybe Oline.)

The early March post for DEs is here.  For the question of trading up for DEs, see especially these 2 comments:  round 1, and  round 2

The early March post for DTs is here.   For the analysis about DT availability and trading up for players, see these tables for availability in Round 1,  and Round 2

 

[shaqattaq]

On 4/2/2016 at 11:50 PM, Frank Hollywood said:

Everyone would hate it, but I'd trade up a few spots to grab Corey Coleman.

 I wouldn't hate that. Several mock drafts have him going to Houston at #22, so it may be too pricey, but this kid is a solid receiver.

[Servant of Cthululelei]

On 4/3/2016 at 6:28 PM, KB_fan said:

(A bit off topic..., but I don't want to start a new thread just to link to a thread I created in the draft forum!  Hopefully the thread I'm referencing here will be helpful for analyzing what moves up or down would provide good value.)

Over in the draft forum, I posted a series of tables regarding the top 300 draft prospects, creating a table for each position noting the grades / projected rounds (using the NFL.com grades & rankings) for each player in the top 300.  There are 6 centers, 34 CBs, 40 WRs, 27 DEs, 34 DTs.... 

(Think of these as color coded "cheat sheets" to quickly help one see where prospects at each position might be drafted.)

I then also looked at the patterns for each round.  Positions are quite unevenly distributed in the grades.  This draft appears to be quite top heavy towards Defense. 

Round 1 grades:  Dline players dominate the top 30 - 35 prospects the draft, especially the bottom half of "round 1 grades" from 16 - 33.

Round 2 grades are a more diverse group.  Offense slightly dominates this group of players (54%) with Oline, WRs, TEs & RBs well represented.

Round 3 grades:  CBs & Safeties dominate this section of the player grades.

Round 4 grades:  WRs & QBs predominate.

You'll find the thread here:

At some point in the next 5 - 10 days, I hope to get back to the series I started in early March looking at the top 15 - 20 prospects for certain key positions and how recent mock drafts reflect on their availability in different rounds.  (I did this already for DEs and DTs.  I hope to update both of those analyses to reflect recent changes, and also cover CBs, Safeties, WRs, and maybe Oline.)

The early March post for DEs is here.  For the question of trading up for DEs, see especially these 2 comments:  round 1, and  round 2

The early March post for DTs is here.   For the analysis about DT availability and trading up for players, see these tables for availability in Round 1,  and Round 2

 

Is Igo paying you yet?  You've got to be spending more time researching and posting valuable stats on this site than I spend procrastinating doing actual work just lurking here.  And that's saying a lot.

[shaqattaq]

On 4/2/2016 at 7:59 AM, uscgamecocks said:

I think it's always going to be much too expensive to move up more than a couple of spots in the first round.

Our 3rd round pick would buy us six spots in round one (up to #24).  That same pick would buy us 13 spots in round two (up to around pick #50).

I'd guess that we don't trade in the first two rounds this year.  Without the extra comp picks, I'm thinking this draft plays out more like the 2014 draft - where we got KB in the first, drafted a guy who "fell" from the first round in the second (Ealy), get a high value lineman in the third (Turner), and then use the fifth or seventh to trade up on day 3.

My picks to fit that profile would be Lawson/Ogbah (DE), one of the many OTs that are projected to go in rounds 1/2, Hargrave (DT - I have no idea where he will go, but he would be a monster backing up Short), and we grab skill positions late.

I really like this plan. Shon Coleman is my pick at OT: as you stated, he is one of many that should be available at 62, but he seems like a solid left tackle who could take over for Oher in the next couple of years. And Hargrave is my favorite pick at 93, he's a beast. We are in sync, sir...provided Hunter Henry is gone from the board when 30 rolls around as many believe he will.

Using our #5 and # 7 to trade up high enough in the 4th to grab Nick Vannett (TE) would round out a hell of a draft; IMO.

 

[juliosantos]

we will trade in the 5th or 6th , no way gettlemans using a 7th rd pick