The Salary cap - Contract Gap, and how it will affect future contracts

[Doc Holiday]

This past week it was discussed a bit on Mike and Mike on ESPN about the gap between where the salary cap is and where contracts are currently in the NFL. From a salary cap perspective the NFL has seen a period of unprecedented growth. In recent years the Cap has gone from $123m in 2013, to currently sitting at $155.27m for the 2016 season. How this affects contracts is due to how they are negotiated. Current player contracts are negotiated based upon the contracts of players that have performed similarly in recent years. But the Cap has gone up by $32m over the last two years, or in other words by 1/4 since 2013. Contracts have not caught up to this, in fact I'd wager to say they aren't anywhere close.

So what does this mean going forward?  Some star players are going to demanding comparable pay raises to reflect the growth of the cap(1/4). For example Joe Flacco (who signed his original big contract in 2013) this past week restructured his contract getting an additional $44m Guaranteed(smart move by the Ravens). And contracts across the board are going to eventually catch up.  It also means players asking for what is currently considered top money based on older salary Cap restrictions, like Josh Norman may not be as crazy as you think asking for $14m per year, instead of looking at it based on what players made last year, look at it as in what they will be making going forward, which will likely be between end up around $17m-18m per year for a shut down CB within the next 2 years.

This also means that we signed Cam Newton to pretty much a bargain bin contract based upon where Top shelf QB contacts are going be heading soon.  I do not doubt we will start to see $30m a year for to QB's within the next 2 years unless the cap stalls out for any reason. 

[DaveThePanther2008]

This trend has been happening for many years.  This isn't new. Players get their contracts at the going rate and it is what it is.  They can hold out but normally they lose money holding out so that doesn't last too long. 

You make your deal, you get your money and you move on. 

The NFL is a beast.  Regardless of the costs fans still keep coming.  As long as there is growth, which I don't see ending any time soon, salaries will rise.  30m 2 years, not a chance maybe 10.  

[Doc Holiday]

2 hours ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

This trend has been happening for many years.  This isn't new. Players get their contracts at the going rate and it is what it is.  They can hold out but normally they lose money holding out so that doesn't last too long. 

You make your deal, you get your money and you move on. 

The NFL is a beast.  Regardless of the costs fans still keep coming.  As long as there is growth, which I don't see ending any time soon, salaries will rise.  30m 2 years, not a chance maybe 10.  

It's been more incremental pre 2013, from 2005-2007 it jumped $24m, and this time it jumped $8m more.

Also Sam Bradford, who nobody is confusing with being a decent QB just signed a 2 year, $35m, that's $17m a year for mediocrity, yes $30m is just around the corner.

[Mr Mojo Risin]

Who is Joey Flacco Lol

[DaveThePanther2008]

59 minutes ago, Doc Holiday said:

It's been more incremental pre 2013, from 2005-2007 it jumped $24m but that's the last time it jumped like this and this time it's $8m more then that.  

Also Sam Bradford, who nobody is confusing with being a decent QB just signed a 2 year, $35m, that's $17m a year for mediocrity, yes $30m is just around the corner.

Debatable.   Sounds like Hurney is working for Philly.  

[johnnydefence]

I lost track of what value is in the NFL a long-time ago. I frankly don't give a care what a contract number is until it impacts not signing other players that can help the team win more games. 

[t96]

21 hours ago, Doc Holiday said:

This past week it was discussed a bit on Mike and Mike on ESPN about the gap between where the salary cap is and where contracts are currently in the NFL. From a salary cap perspective the NFL has seen a period of unprecedented growth. In recent years the Cap has gone from $123m in 2013, to currently sitting at $155.27m for the 2016 season. How this affects contracts is due to how they are negotiated. Current player contracts are negotiated based upon the contracts of players that have performed similarly in recent years. But the Cap has gone up by $32m over the last two years, or in other words by 1/4 since 2013. Contracts have not caught up to this, in fact I'd wager to say they aren't anywhere close.

So what does this mean going forward?  Some star players are going to demanding comparable pay raises to reflect the growth of the cap(1/4). For example Joe Flacco (who signed his original big contract in 2013) this past week restructured his contract getting an additional $44m Guaranteed(smart move by the Ravens). And contracts across the board are going to eventually catch up.  It also means players asking for what is currently considered top money based on older salary Cap restrictions, like Josh Norman may not be as crazy as you think asking for $14m per year, instead of looking at it based on what players made last year, look at it as in what they will be making going forward, which will likely be between end up around $17m-18m per year for a shut down CB within the next 2 years.

This also means that we signed Cam Newton to pretty much a bargain bin contract based upon where Top shelf QB contacts are going be heading soon.  I do not doubt we will start to see $30m a year for to QB's within the next 2 years unless the cap stalls out for any reason. 

The highest contract right now is like $21-22ish M I believe and that's Rodgers. It's not going to jump by nearly 50% in 2 years. $30M/year for a QB won't come for at least 5 more years, even with the cap increasing.

[t96]

19 hours ago, Doc Holiday said:

It's been more incremental pre 2013, from 2005-2007 it jumped $24m, and this time it jumped $8m more.

Also Sam Bradford, who nobody is confusing with being a decent QB just signed a 2 year, $35m, that's $17m a year for mediocrity, yes $30m is just around the corner.

He's no worse than Cutler who signed a deal for more money than Bradford and that was before Cam and Wilson got their deals which were still less than Rodgers'. People here keep thinking Luck is getting $25M/year, but he probably won't get more than Cam and if he does then certainly no more than Wilson.

[Doc Holiday]

52 minutes ago, thomas96 said:

The highest contract right now is like $21-22ish M I believe and that's Rodgers. It's not going to jump by nearly 50% in 2 years. $30M/year for a QB won't come for at least 5 more years, even with the cap increasing.

Drew Brees was $24m last year and $30M this year, and Flacco before the restructure was going to be $28m this year($22m now). salaries are already getting there.

 

44 minutes ago, thomas96 said:

He's no worse than Cutler who signed a deal for more money than Bradford and that was before Cam and Wilson got their deals which were still less than Rodgers'. People here keep thinking Luck is getting $25M/year, but he probably won't get more than Cam and if he does then certainly no more than Wilson.

He's a lot worse then Cutler, and it's not even close, Luck is probably getting $25m

[t96]

1 hour ago, Doc Holiday said:

Drew Brees was $24m last year and $30M this year, and Flacco before the restructure was going to be $28m this year($22m now). salaries are already getting there.

 

He's a lot worse then Cutler, and it's not even close, Luck is probably getting $25m

That's just the way those particular contracts were structured, the early years were probably less than $10M and it averaged out to no more than around the $22M I said before. You said we'll be seeing "$30M a year for QBs" within the next 2 years, and that's absolutely absurd.

 

I'm not going to get into comparing these two. Neither is very good. Luck won't be getting more than $22M/year. I would bet a lot of money on that and will remember this thread when he gets his contract.

[Doc Holiday]

2 hours ago, thomas96 said:

That's just the way those particular contracts were structured, the early years were probably less than $10M and it averaged out to no more than around the $22M I said before. You said we'll be seeing "$30M a year for QBs" within the next 2 years, and that's absolutely absurd.

 

I'm not going to get into comparing these two. Neither is very good. Luck won't be getting more than $22M/year. I would bet a lot of money on that and will remember this thread when he gets his contract.

cool beans internet tough guy

[aussiePanther]

2 hours ago, thomas96 said:

I'm not going to get into comparing these two. Neither is very good. Luck won't be getting more than $22M/year. I would bet a lot of money on that and will remember this thread when he gets his contract.

Dude I'd be tempted to take this bet. It'll certainly be more than $20M/year.

He's a lot better than Kirk Cousins. The QB market is insane right now because there are so few options. I can't imagine it'd change much next year.

I just thank Christ we have Getts on the job and he locked up Cam (and DA) at a bargain price.

[PandaPancake]

4 hours ago, Doc Holiday said:

cool beans internet tough guy

You paged me?

[aussiePanther]

On 07/03/2016 at 4:07 PM, thomas96 said:

That's just the way those particular contracts were structured, the early years were probably less than $10M and it averaged out to no more than around the $22M I said before. You said we'll be seeing "$30M a year for QBs" within the next 2 years, and that's absolutely absurd.

 

I'm not going to get into comparing these two. Neither is very good. Luck won't be getting more than $22M/year. I would bet a lot of money on that and will remember this thread when he gets his contract.

It's coming soon:

So @thomas96 what's the line you're giving?

Is it still $22M/year and is that average or guaranteed or cap hit or what?