DE targets for this draft

[KB_fan]

(cross posting this from the Panthers forum...)

Now the fun begins....

The reason I put the effort into developing that consensus list of top DEs yesterday was to give myself a tracking list to be able to work from during Mock Drafts - to permit tracking which of the top players will be available when we pick.

So, I've now just done 7 1 round drafts at Fanspeak this a.m. using the 7 different most recent boards.  For each, I noted which of the consensus top 10 DEs would be available for our pick at #30.  Here are the results:

Unless Gettleman is willing to trade up, you can kiss Bosa / Buckner / Lawson / Spence goodbye.  Generally all four of them are gone by pick 12 - 15.

Bullard, Dodd and Ogbah are very interesting to track.  They are almost certainly the 3 best DEs that would still be available when we draft in round 1.  Bullard was available 4 times, Dodd & Ogbah 3 times each.  In 3 of the 7 drafts, two of those 3 were both available, but the majority of cases, only one of those 3 were there.  So far, there has not been a draft where NONE of those 3 were there.   If we are ok with taking ANY of these 3 players at #30, it looks pretty likely that we can get one of them, but it's not a sure thing.  On average 6 of the top 10 DEs are being picked by the teams at 1 - 29.  Given the price being paid for good DEs, if just one more team picks a DE before us, we could be in a situation where none of these 3 are available. 

Of the final three DEs in the top 10 consensus list:  Calhoun / Nassib / Kaufusi,  are all quite likely to be available.  In 6 of 7 drafts, all 3 were still available.  However, from what I've been reading, I think most here would probably not consider Calhoun, Nassib or Kaufusi worthy of being picked at #30 (i.e. they would not be BPA at 30, we would probably go with some other position, because if all the other 7 DEs ahead of them were gone, other very good players that would have fallen).  However, if we do like any of these 3 guys, based on these 7 drafts, we could almost certainly pick one of them.

I've not yet done a new set of 2 round drafts, but my sense is that Calhoun and Nassib would likely go before our pick in round 2, while Kaufusi would quite probably still be available.   Pretty much to get a top 10 DE, with the possible exception of Kaufusi, we will have to pick a DE in the first, or trade up in the 2nd.

[davos]

The more I read and watch stuff of Bullard's, the more intrigued I am. 

Calhoun is interesting because he seems like that type of guy that could fit any scheme but makes more sense in a 3-4.  Though he does look like a beast.  If he could add some power and get to 265/270, he could be a monster 4-3 DE.  3X All-American from the Big-10, awards galore, and athletic as hell. 

[Riverboat Ron]

On 3/11/2016 at 0:45 PM, davos said:

The more I read and watch stuff of Bullard's, the more intrigued I am. 

Calhoun is interesting because he seems like that type of guy that could fit any scheme but makes more sense in a 3-4.  Though he does look like a beast.  If he could add some power and get to 265/270, he could be a monster 4-3 DE.  3X All-American from the Big-10, awards galore, and athletic as hell. 

Really starting to think Bullard might go in the late teens early 20's. Wouldn't surprise me if he picked him if he's on the board.

[LukeBeastly]

This pass rusher class is meh. Give me James Cowser in the 5th.