#1 Defense vs. # Offense Narrative

[Thanatos]

It's also a bullshit statistic used to just be catchy.

It's not #1 vs #1. It's #1 scoring offense vs #1 total defense. Which are two totally different stats.

The #1 scoring defense was Seattle. Panthers are ranked #11 in total offense. It just seems to me that you should at least pick the same stat. So #1 scoring offense vs #3 scoring defense OR #11 total offense vs #1 total defense... but of course that doesn't sound nearly as catchy and ruins the NFL SB trailer, (1 vs 1).

Scoring offense is a misleading stat. It should be scoring "team" as it merely takes into account all points scored- this includes defensive touchdowns and turnovers that are returned inside the 20 yard line. Over the course of a whole season, total offense is *generally* a better way to measure how well an offense will perform, but the Panthers have kinda turned that on its head this year due to the defense forcing 48 turnovers in 18 games. 

The Panthers are not the #1 offense in the NFL, but they are the best overall team in the NFL. It doesn't guarantee a win, but Carolina's best is simply better than Denver's best. If the Panthers play to their full capability, Denver is not going to beat them.

[JawnyBlaze]

51 minutes ago, Thanatos said:

IScoring offense is a misleading stat. It should be scoring "team" as it merely takes into account all points scored- this includes defensive touchdowns and turnovers that are returned inside the 20 yard line. Over the course of a whole season, total offense is *generally* a better way to measure how well an offense will perform, but the Panthers have kinda turned that on its head this year due to the defense forcing 48 turnovers in 18 games.

I agree with most of what you said, but not this.  Points win the game, points are what matters.  I DO agree they should remove defensive/st touchdowns from the total.  I've always had a problem with that.  Scoring offense should be points scored by the offense. 

"Total offense" is affected by a bad st return game just like "scoring offense" is affected by a good defense that gets turnovers and gives the offense a short field.  So you can't look at either in a complete vacuum, and since points are what matter I think scoring offense is the best way to look at it.  Always have.  And scoring defense the same way, points are what matter so the defense that prevents the most points is the best defense. 

[iamhubby1]

7 hours ago, CRA said:

#1 scoring offenses are generally overly heavy pass attacks.  Which makes it comical that Denver fans are trying to paint themselves as Seattle and Carolina Denver of a few seasons ago.

Carolina is an anomaly.  When is the last time a rushing team lead the NFL in scoring? 

 

I just spent 10 whole minutes trying to find this out. I found nothing. So you will have to do your own research. But I get were you are drifting.

 

In todays NFL we are not the anomaly. But there are way more teams that pass the ball, than there are who play like us. Teams talk about balance. We actually achieve it. That makes it much more difficult to defend us. Add in the Sherman Tank of a QB, and we are basically one tough out.

 

[Thanatos]

In general, when you are looking at the strength of an offense, piling up more yards will lead to more opportunities to score. 

There are two major exceptions: A team that turns the ball over a lot, and a team that gets a lot of turnovers, and thus short fields. Relatively speaking, however, yardage is a better indicator of offensive firepower over the course of the whole year for all the teams, which is why they use it for "total" defense and offense. There's too many variables to account for to make scoring offense and scoring defense the standard. They are valuable tools for measuring impact, but total offense is 90% of the time a better stat.

As I said, however, the Panthers fall under one of those exceptions.

[FootballMaestro]

16 hours ago, Thanatos said:

It's also a bullshit statistic used to just be catchy.

It's not #1 vs #1. It's #1 scoring offense vs #1 total defense. Which are two totally different stats.

The #1 scoring defense was Seattle. Panthers are ranked #11 in total offense. It just seems to me that you should at least pick the same stat. So #1 scoring offense vs #3 scoring defense OR #11 total offense vs #1 total defense... but of course that doesn't sound nearly as catchy and ruins the NFL SB trailer, (1 vs 1).

Scoring offense is a misleading stat. It should be scoring "team" as it merely takes into account all points scored- this includes defensive touchdowns and turnovers that are returned inside the 20 yard line. Over the course of a whole season, total offense is *generally* a better way to measure how well an offense will perform, but the Panthers have kinda turned that on its head this year due to the defense forcing 48 turnovers in 18 games. 

The Panthers are not the #1 offense in the NFL, but they are the best overall team in the NFL. It doesn't guarantee a win, but Carolina's best is simply better than Denver's best. If the Panthers play to their full capability, Denver is not going to beat them.

FWIW: The Panthers are also the #1 Scoring offense (as opposed to team) at 29 pts a game.

[FootballMaestro]

10 hours ago, Thanatos said:

In general, when you are looking at the strength of an offense, piling up more yards will lead to more opportunities to score. 

There are two major exceptions: A team that turns the ball over a lot, and a team that gets a lot of turnovers, and thus short fields. Relatively speaking, however, yardage is a better indicator of offensive firepower over the course of the whole year for all the teams, which is why they use it for "total" defense and offense. There's too many variables to account for to make scoring offense and scoring defense the standard. They are valuable tools for measuring impact, but total offense is 90% of the time a better stat.

As I said, however, the Panthers fall under one of those exceptions.

The Panthers are also a different team, where stats can tell lies.

Rivera, will almost always slow down the game offensively when his team has a 17+ pt lead (no matter when). So this skews Carolina's passing and total offense stats. At this point, they're more interested in running down the clock than getting chunk yards or scoring.

Most teams, have no problems trying to score till 4 min left in the game, boosting QB and total yard stats.

Case in example (as I said earlier): Panther's were tired of hearing about 'blown 2nd half leads' after the Seattle playoff game. So Carolina kept pouring it on, with 500 yds of total offense, and 335 passing yards for Newton.

Normally, Carolina would just try mostly running plays each possession, and Cam would have ended up with 170+ passing yards-as he did vs Seattle-when the Panthers employed that "dead ball" strategy.

[FootballMaestro]

15 hours ago, JawnyBlaze said:

I agree with most of what you said, but not this.  Points win the game, points are what matters.  I DO agree they should remove defensive/st touchdowns from the total.  I've always had a problem with that.  Scoring offense should be points scored by the offense. 

"Total offense" is affected by a bad st return game just like "scoring offense" is affected by a good defense that gets turnovers and gives the offense a short field.  So you can't look at either in a complete vacuum, and since points are what matter I think scoring offense is the best way to look at it.  Always have.  And scoring defense the same way, points are what matter so the defense that prevents the most points is the best defense. 

Panthers are still the #1 scoring offense at 29pts a game.

Defense, Special teams only add 2 pts a game to Panthers total.

[JawnyBlaze]

1 hour ago, FootballMaestro said:

Panthers are still the #1 scoring offense at 29pts a game.

Defense, Special teams only add 2 pts a game to Panthers total.

Yea, that comment wasn't directed at our own rank.  Just in general, dst points shouldn't be counted in scoring offense.

[Thanatos]

9 hours ago, FootballMaestro said:

Panthers are still the #1 scoring offense at 29pts a game.

Defense, Special teams only add 2 pts a game to Panthers total.

I did not think this was true actually. Thought we were #2 behind New England. But regardless, the point was scoring offense as it stands is misleading.

[Alliesend]

While their might be some validity to the #1 defense vs #1 offense argument. In reality the comparison should be more closely to Peyton manning's only super bowl victory. The Bears had the #1 defense in the league but they had Rex Grossman as quarterback. Denver has the #1 defense in the NFL but they have peyton manning who only played half the season and still lead the league in interceptions while Cam Newton is playing like the undisputed MVP. Carolina has the edge because they are top ten in both categories while Denver has a great defense and a mediocre offense. Remember Luke kuechly has more touchdowns in the postseason then Denver's wide receivers.

[heelinfine]

On 2/5/2016 at 0:48 PM, thomas96 said:

I've been seeing this thrown around a lot, especially by Broncos fans... That defense wins championships and historically the #1 defense dominates the #1 offense. They quickly point to their own heartbreak just 2 years ago, and think it'll be the same thing against us just with them being the ones to dominate. But the difference between then and now is that Broncos offense was a finesse passing offense. They walked into a game against the (2nd) toughest defense in the league and got absolutely stomped because the physicality on the Seahawks D was unmatched by the Broncos offense. The Seahawks had guys who could do it all and would knock your ass out of the game at every level of their D. The Denver offense was a complete joke (though it was "historically good). WRs were all complete pansies and the second they got jammed at the line they'd quit on their routes. Peyton was way better than but folded on the big stage. They had no real running game.

 

This game is the complete opposite. The Carolina Panthers offense is far and away the most physical and tough offense in the league, and it's not even close. The Broncos D dominated the Patriots' finesse offense and their crap o-line, so they must dominate us as well right? I don't think so. Just look at Andrew Norwell. That man will fug anybody on that Broncos D up. He's not extremely athletically gifted or physically gifted, but that man will punch them right in the mouth and take 3 or 4 of their guys out of the play. He did it against the Seahawks who still have one of the toughest Ds in the league. The Broncos D is great without a doubt. But they're nothing like the Seahawks have been. The Seahawks' secondary is called the Legion of Boom for a reason--and not because it was a conveniently thought up "cool" nickname. Those guys wreck havoc. They can cover as well as anybody but more than anything else they can come in and knock guys out routinely. The Broncos secondary couldn't be more opposite. Led by Aqib Talib, maybe the biggeest bitch CB since Deion Sanders, that secondary would be afraid to hit the kid taking their lunch money let alone the baddest motherfugers on the planet on the Panthers offense. Talib is an amazing cover corner, no doubt. So is Chris Harris. They have a solid pair of safeties as well. But they are no Legion of Boom. They have an amazing pass rush and I'll give them that. Von Miller is great, as is Ware and the DTs on the interior. Marshall is a tremendous player as well. But this is a group of talented players who were all heralded from day one of their NFL careers. There was no adversity for them. This group was put together by John Elway by paying guys a lot of money and drafting guys early when they were bad. These guys don't have the fight in them like those Seahawks did and it's clear in their play.

 

This isn't even taking into account how good our D is and how poor their O is. Even if they win the matchup between our O and their D by a slight margin we shouldn't have any problems with our D against their O, but I honestly expect our offense to stomp on their D right from the start.

Thomas96 you said it all when you used the word physicality.  That will be the reason why the Panthers will be Super Bowl 50 champs.