A Critical Look at the Denver Defense

[shaka]

30 minutes ago, Bronn said:

Okay I am going to be that guy... but maybe I am misunderstanding something...

Are you discounting that the fact that Denver's D played against these offenses might make them look statistically worse after the fact (ie. end of the year rankings?)

This would indicate that the Panthers didn't necessarily face better offenses, only that they gave up more offense to the teams they did face.

I'm as big of a Panthers homer and fan as anyone, but I think these stats actually reinforce the point that Denver's D might be better, at least statistically. (Because, the teams they faced ended up with lower offensive rankings)

Am I not interpreting this right?

Good points.  

No discounting was done.  The actual impact of Denver's defense on opponents offensive ranking is not something I have a desire to calculate.  But let's napkin math an example for a division opponent.  

Let's use 350 yards per game as an average.  This would put our imaginary team at 17th in offensive yards per game.  The Broncos let up on average 283 yards per game.  

Scenario 1) They play the Broncos twice and put up their averages.  

14 other games x 350 yards + 283yards + 283yards = 5466 total yards

Scenario 2)  They put up their offensive average each game

16 games x 350 yards = 5600 yards

That's the difference between coming in 21st and 17th in yards.  For non-divisional opponents the effect would be dampened.  

 

There's certainly some merit but that's a slippery slope to go down.  You start adding in other variables and we'll begin over analyzing and looking like Seahawk fans quoting advanced metrics.  

 

They're a great defense, but this "elite" stuff is nonsense.  

 

 

[CatAttack]

26 minutes ago, !stUp said:

I've also heard that KC runs a similar offense to us, and had success this year against Denver's D.

Yup, that is a popular one along with "Alex Smith is just as mobile as Cam."  

[joemac]

We put up 31 in one fuging half against Seattle. This narrative that Denver is one of the greatest defenses of the last 15 years is completely laughable! The only reason everyone is going on and on about the Denver D is because that's all that they have!!! The media has to give them and their fans something to hold on to these next 2 weeks. They can't advertise a colossal ass whooping...might turn people off.

[caatfan]

In week 14, at home, Denver dominated Oakland, 310 yds. vs. 126. Time of possession 36 min. to 24. Penalties 10-70 for Oakland and Denver only 4-27. Broncos lost 15-12.

They lost 2 fumbles and I don't know if either resulted in points for Oakland, although all points in the game were scored on offense. The stat that stuck out for me was red zone scoring. Raiders were 2 for 2 in the red zone, while the Broncos were 0-3. Oakland wasn't bad at red zone scoring % this season (8th), but we're #1 with a 91% rate over the last 3 games. Denver is at only 50% over the last 3 games, and finished 27th. 

If we were facing the 2013 version of Manning, plus their current D, I'd be worried. Their D, no matter how good it is, won't keep the Panthers' scoring down enough for this creaky old version of Manning to beat us. The way I see it is they can't stop our offense, but we can stop theirs.

 

[Lilsmitty09]

Damn they barely played any decent offenses. NE and Pitt are the only two good ones and Pitt was so beat up this year..

[-13 Amp-]

I know Denver delt with injuries and QB issues themselves, but did the AFC falling apart at the end help them more than the numbers can show?...The Pats when healthy looked damn good but fell apart at the end of the year, The Steelers limping in with an injured Big Ben and no Brown...The Bengals losing Dalton so they had no offense to play with in the playoffs...

[Carolina Cajun]

If at ANY point we have more than a 1 TD lead, the game will snowball and get ugly as hell.  I keep looking at the matchup, and I don't see them stopping our run offense the way it's designed and I can not feasibly conceive of a way for them to get more than 20 points barring us having a total collapse in regards to turnovers.  If we take care of our business and execute the game plan as planned, this game is ours where as on the other side of the ball I think there is no margin for error.  All of that said, I won't count out the broncos, the superbowl has been riddled with Teams that "shouldn't win" but did, and who knows...they just might finally be able to contain Cam and bracket Olsen.

[MadHatter]

Key is....we are an offense that comes out on fire and lights it up in the first quarter.....and Denver does not have an offense to score a lot of points and make big comebacks.  I agree....we get a 2 score lead and it might be over.

[Carolina Cajun]

10 minutes ago, -13 Amp- said:

I know Denver delt with injuries and QB issues themselves, but did the AFC falling apart at the end help them more than the numbers can show?...The Pats when healthy looked damn good but fell apart at the end of the year, The Steelers limping in with an injured Big Ben and no Brown...The Bengals losing Dalton so they had no offense to play with in the playoffs...

The Bengals were the most dangerous team in the playoffs (in more ways than talentwise), Dalton getting injured was a huge blessing for us, then the Patriots losing was great for us because honestly, I was afraid of what a healthier patriots team could do especially giving Bellicheat and Brady 2 weeks to scheme a way to obliterate Finnigan and McClain.  I and a lot of people have said that whoever won the NFC was gonna win the whole shabang and I still firmly believe that.  

[NanuqoftheNorth]

42 minutes ago, caatfan said:

In week 14, at home, Denver dominated Oakland, 310 yds. vs. 126. Time of possession 36 min. to 24. Penalties 10-70 for Oakland and Denver only 4-27. Broncos lost 15-12.

They lost 2 fumbles and I don't know if either resulted in points for Oakland, although all points in the game were scored on offense. The stat that stuck out for me was red zone scoring. Raiders were 2 for 2 in the red zone, while the Broncos were 0-3. Oakland wasn't bad at red zone scoring % this season (8th), but we're #1 with a 91% rate over the last 3 games. Denver is at only 50% over the last 3 games, and finished 27th. 

If we were facing the 2013 version of Manning, plus their current D, I'd be worried. Their D, no matter how good it is, won't keep the Panthers' scoring down enough for this creaky old version of Manning to beat us. The way I see it is they can't stop our offense, but we can stop theirs.

The talk of who has the best D is almost irrelevant since the defenses do not play one another.

What is relevant is whose D is more capable of neutralizing their opponents offense?

Denver's D may be good, but they will not manage to keep Cam and Company out of the end zone for a quarter, much less 60 minutes.

On the other hand, it is quite possible for Carolina's D to shutout Manning and his tepid offense.

Advantage:  Carolina

[cgarsmoker]

The second half of the year, all we heard was Seattle was the most dangerous team and Arizona was the most complete team.  Both of them were the "team to beat" in the NFC.  Well, the "teams to beat" got beaten and my eyeball test in the playoffs tells me we are gonna roll hard on both sides of the ball.  The Broncos will be the next member of the "we just got steamrolled by the Panthers" club.  

[NanuqoftheNorth]

5 minutes ago, cgarsmoker said:

The second half of the year, all we heard was Seattle was the most dangerous team and Arizona was the most complete team.  Both of them were the "team to beat" in the NFC.  Well, the "teams to beat" got beaten and my eyeball test in the playoffs tells me we are gonna roll hard on both sides of the ball.  The Broncos will be the next member of the "we just got steamrolled by the Panthers" club.  

Expect more shots like those of the exasperated Cardinals coaches on the sidelines asking each other "Do you know what is going on here?".

Sometimes it is hard to believe if you haven't experienced it first hand. 

Denver, you're next.

[tondi]

Whats the over/under on how many minutes into the game we see the first meltdown on the Denver sideline because they are getting their ass handed to them?

[Carolina Cajun]

Last thing I'll say about the Denver defense is, we've just made 2 straight top 5 defenses bitch at each other on the sidelines before half time.  If they think we're gonna be a slouch or that their more focused on rubbing nutsacks on faces, then they will be doing the same.  You may hold off the blitzkrieg, but it'll eventually get to you because we're high powered AND we don't turn the ball over.