Watched a replay of the Cardinals/Packers game

[hepcat]

I just got finished watching an abridged replay of the Cardinals/Packers game and have a few quick notes.  Overall the Cardinals came very close to losing a game that they shouldn't have even been close to losing.  They were clearly the better team but kept making mistakes on both offense and defense that allowed the Packers to hang around.  The Cardinals got pretty lucky in this game overall, and the Packers played a great game all things considered.  I'm ignoring the final plays of the game (the Hail Mary's, Fitzgerald's wild play in OT), because they were crazy "heat of the moment" plays that could happen to anyone at any time.  This is a meat and potatoes analysis of the rest of the game.

1) First Points: Arizona got lucky on their first TD because the Packers punter Tim Mastay had a terrible punt that gave the Packers the ball at their own 45 yard line for the Cardinals first drive.  Palmer looked sharp throwing short darts to his receivers, but they also dodged a huge bullet when Palmer was sacked and fumbled.  Luckily he recovered his own fumble and they scored a TD two plays afterward to take an early 7-0 lead.

2) Cardinals Passing Game:  Carson Palmer had a very up and down game, which seems to be a trend for him.  He made some good throws, and some awful throws.  Palmer's first INT on the Cardinals first possession of the 2nd half set up a Packers scoring drive.  This was more the defender making a great play than it was a bad throw, but it was still a questionable decision.  http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000623909/Ha-Ha-Clinton-Dix-picks-off-Carson-Palmer

Palmers 2nd INT in the red zone was ugly and ill advised.  The Packers pass rush was starting to get to him, but overall he had good protection.  But he threw up a prayer off his back foot in a situation where he should have just thrown the ball away.  Poor play, no one was open. http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000623941/Damarious-Randall-picks-off-Carson-Palmer-in-end-zone

Palmer almost threw a second INT in the red zone later in the 4th quarter that if Damarious Randall holds on, would have probably lost them the game.  Overall, Palmer's decision making in the red zone almost cost them this game.

Three plays later the Cardinals get lucky again, with Michael Floyd catching a tipped ball for the go-ahead TD.  http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000623954/Divisional-Can-t-Miss-Play-Gettin-tippy-with-it

Overall I expect Palmer to make some questionable throws against the Panthers, and the defense should be able to bring in at least one or more INT against him.  Against the Panthers, that usually spells disaster.

3) Cardinals Run Defense: The Packers didn't run the ball as well as the numbers indicate, but when they did it made a big difference in moving the ball against the Cardinals defense. Most of their runs went for 1-4 yards behind Eddy Lacy.  But on the 3rd offensive drive of the game, they had Starks in the game who honestly looks like the better RB between him and Lacy.  Starks got them a first down running the ball to start the drive.  This was key for the Packers getting some early points by loosening up the defense.  They should have played Starks more.  Eddie Lacy busted off a huge run in the 3rd quarter following Carson Palmers first INT to set up the Packers with their first TD.  

The Panthers should be able to run on the Cardinals defense, and if Whitaker is back, he could have a nice game.  They seem more vulnerable to speed backs than power backs.

4) Cardinals Pass Defense:  Thoroughly average.  Rodgers made some nice throws but also had some bad ones.  He had an up and down game much like Palmer.  The Cardinals had a Patrick Peterson pick-6 called back because of a hands-to-the-face penalty on a defensive lineman.  Unfortunate penalty that really changed the game.  This was a bad decision by Rodgers.  http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000623860/Patrick-Peterson-s-pick-6-called-back

They made a few plays on some questionable Aaron Rodgers throws, but comparatively, Rodgers has much less talent to work with in his receiving corps than Palmer.  His top WR Randall Cobb was injured early in the game after he made an amazing catch that was nullified because of a Packers penalty.  Two big plays that were called back due to penalties.  They are missing Tyrann Mathieu badly.  

The Cardinals secondary is similar to the Panthers.  They have an elite corner, but after that it's a bunch of average no-name guys.  The Panthers need to stay away from Patrick Peterson but should have some favorable matchups as well.  They blitz a lot and this means Greg Olsen should be able to get open in single coverage and could have a big game.  The Cardinals haven't faced a TE of his caliber this year.  The Panthers offense has an extremely favorable matchup against their defense.

5) Cardinals Running Game: To keep it brief, it's unlikely the Cardinals will get much going in the run game against the Panthers.  They tried to get it going in the 1st quarter but had no luck, and essentially abandoned it all together against the Packers.  They only had 19 total rushes for 39 yards, with their longest run going for 8 yards.  David Johnson was a non-factor in this game, but is still dangerous.  

Overall the Cardinals game against the Packers showed they have a lot of weaknesses.  The Panthers are the better team.  It could have just been a bad game, but the Packers were clearly the inferior opponent that the Cardinals made enough mistakes to let them hang around and almost win the game.  I'm not sure why they abandoned the running game so early because I feel like good play-action passes would have helped Palmer have more success, but the Packers defense knew they weren't going to be running later in the game.  From what I saw, the Cardinals offense is relentless - they pound you with short passes and go over the top.  This is the most likely reason the Panthers could lose - they are starting two corners that weren't on the roster even at mid-season and with their weapons on offense, should be able to exploit a weak Panthers secondary.  It will be up to the Panthers pass rush to keep Palmer off his game and force him to make mistakes, because the Cardinals passing offense is diverse and features a lot of weapons.

Honestly, I think the Seahawks are the better team than the Cardinals at this point in the season and the Panthers could win this game easily.  But Palmer is a good QB when he gets into a rhythm and we could see a game similar to the Seahawks game where the Panthers build a big lead, but allow Palmer to get comfortable and lead the Cardinals back into the game.  

[UpstatePanther]

It sounds like the Panthers match up well against the Cardinals in every area but our pass D against their passing attack. Unfortunately, their pass attack is so good and our pass D so banged up, that it could negate the other strengths. 

Sounds like our passing attack will have a good day against their secondary if we can exploit their blitz-happiness. Our running game should contribute strongly too. And our run defense will force the Cards to beat us with the pass. The problem is that they could very well beat us with the pass :/ 

Not hand wringing. We wouldn't be here if we couldn't beat the Cardinals. But this may well be the toughest game we've played all season. I'm psyched to be there, but hoping the boys stay focused, come out ready to dominate like this past week, and don't let up until we are up by 38 or the clock says 0:00 in the 4th...

[OneBadCat]

Best way to combat the ARZ passing attack is for the dline to take over the game and the offense scoring a lot points in ball control fashion.

I do like our chances for Addison and Ealy to have a big game. Even CJ or hell Delaire if he gets to play. Palmer isnt a mobile QB.

[Jeremy Igo]

1 minute ago, OneBadCat said:

Best way to combat the ARZ passing attack

Is for Carolina to run the damn ball down their throats all game and keep Palmer on the bench. 

[chknwing]

last time Palmer played the Panthers he threw 3 picks.  Cam was sacked 7 times though in that game and Ariz won 22-6

[PhillyB]

palmer will step up in the pocket all day given the opportunity. laterally he's about as mobile as the statue of david though, so the key to this will be KK and star getting consistent pressure up the middle. i would expect to see a ton of A-gap blitzing as well.

[Mojo]

That's a great analysis.  Thanks for doing this.  One thing I noticed about Palmer is he's very temperamental.  If we can consistently pressure him is going to be the biggest key for us in my opinion.  Send those hounds so he starts pouting and spitting.  IF we can get pressure with front 4, huge if, we'll be fine.

[hepcat]

2 hours ago, PhillyB said:

palmer will step up in the pocket all day given the opportunity. laterally he's about as mobile as the statue of david though, so the key to this will be KK and star getting consistent pressure up the middle. i would expect to see a ton of A-gap blitzing as well.

Honestly if we can rattle Palmer into making a few early mistakes, this could be a blowout.  Cardinals defense looks very vulnerable especially to the running game.

[ncsfinest21]

Screen passes. We can kill them with this with there blitz. Fozzy or Payne will do well this game because they have the speed and good hands to catch out of the back field and do well off the screen. Make no mistake, they will be blitzing and sending alot of pressure and trying to contain Cam. I see the screen passes working to our advantage here. Even Stew can get in on the action but I believe Fozzy and Payne have the speed to take it to the house. Thats if Fozzy plays.

[rico6]

Something tells me Arians will abandon the run pretty damn early, especially if we strike blood first. Palmer is a Good QB, but his inconsistencies have followed him throughout his NFL Career, and almost cost them a NFCCG if Fitz didn't go nuts in OT.

 

But Greenbay's D, despite ending their season at respectable rankings is still pretty bad and undisciplined. Carolina's D is backed by 2 of the best defensive minds (Ron & McD) in the game. I'll take that set-up 10-ways to Sunday. 

[Moorgan]

2 hours ago, PhillyB said:

palmer will step up in the pocket all day given the opportunity. laterally he's about as mobile as the statue of david though, so the key to this will be KK and star getting consistent pressure up the middle. i would expect to see a ton of A-gap blitzing as well.

I might've missed during my deployments, but what was the shuttle time for the statue of David? Just looking for context. Thanks. I'll take it off the air.

[PhillyB]

3 minutes ago, Moorgan said:

I might've missed during my deployments, but what was the shuttle time for the statue of David? Just looking for context. Thanks. I'll take it off the air.

i'll have that information in my next book