Reverse line movement

[hdevonxz]

As unpredictable as this season has been, you can't expect for it all of a sudden to become predictable.   

[millsous]

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/14575633/chalk-las-vegas-bookmakers-discuss-biggest-line-moves-sharp-public-bets-nfl-divisional-playoff-round

[bigdog10]

33 minutes ago, TheGreatestOfAllTimeCam said:

It's just a really bad early indicator - coupled with the way I think I am feeling and a lot of others who are realists. The guys in this forum just kill me who say we'll win by 2 TD"s and all that stupidness. I hope we win, it will kill me if we don't, I'll be depressed the rest of the playoffs, might not watch another game; but if I am completely honest with the facts and what I know and had to bet my life on this game; I already know the outcome really. 

I hate the fact that I'm sitting here agreeing with everything you type, but you are spot on. 

[USC/panthers_11]

I don't post that much, but the OP has been really annoying in this thread. You don't know everything, buddy. Following points spreads and public betting has been a hobby of mine for a few years now. Here are a few points off the top of my head:

-these spreads are set mainly on public perception. Seattle has gotten more respect from vegas than any team in the nfl the last couple years. On the other hand, carolina has not got much respect at all this year. Do you not remember we were only favored by 3 over the texans, bucs and jaguars? I think we were only a 3.5 favorite over the eagles. The spread against the titans had reverse line movement. It moved down to -4 right before the game, then we beat them by 17. We were also and an underdog at Dallas which was a complete joke.

-I see you spelling doom because more public betting is on the panthers. I've learned this is not a strong indicator of who will win unless public betting is more than 80 percent or more on a team. There's currently only 68 percent on the panthers. You also failed to point out (or didn't realize) the public was on the panthers for 15 of their 16 games this year!  The game at Seattle was the only week we didn't have more public betting. 

-Final point... you didn't even mention money lines. The spread opened with carolina -123 and seattle +107. For the newbies out there, this means carolina bettors only get 77 percent of the money they bet, whereas seattle bettors get 107 percent! 

The spread is now at -2. With how much love vegas gives seattle, this is right where I thought it would be.

For the record, I'm not saying carolina is the sure play. I wouldn't bet money on either team. With a gun to my head, I would pick carolina since we are the better team at home, and for all reasons I pointed out above. I wasn't going to post until I saw the douchebag comment "pull this thread up Sunday". OP is a borderline chump if you ask me. 

[USC/panthers_11]

Lol. I noticed a few more gems from the OP. He pointed out all the big buildings in vegas. This is due to the house winning, not the "sharks". 

He also expected the panthers to open at -4 or -4.5? Does he even follow this??! We were only favored over the texans by 3 yet would should open as 4.5/4 favorites over the best team in the nfl over the last 2 years in the playoffs? Right. Chump.

[AceBoogie]

13 hours ago, TheGreatestOfAllTimeCam said:

0-5 prior to that; prior to this season. 1-5 off a bye week lifetime, which is terrible.

Make sure you dig up this thread Sunday night okay? And try not to get us both suspended again. You're just constant. 

If you can't be confident that your 15-1 team can beat a 10-6 theyve already defeated then why are you here? 

[Mr. Scot]

22 hours ago, TheGreatestOfAllTimeCam said:

you know what this means

It means you've found another reason to panic.

[uncfan888]

So, we all agree that OP sucks, right? 

[Mr. Scot]

4 minutes ago, uncfan888 said:

So, we all agree that OP sucks, right? 

I'm reminded of what John McLain's daughter said in 'Live Free or Die Hard'.

"Do you think maybe you could dig down deep and find a bigger set of balls?"

Ditto for a couple of others here.

[TheGreatestOfAllTimeCam]

9 hours ago, Kuechly59 said:

When we win can @TheGreatestOfAllTimeCam be perma banned so we don't have to read his threads about how we can't possibly beat the packers/cardinals in the home NFC title game.

only time I have ever been banned here is when the mod said you wouldn't stop so he had to ban us both, which made little to no sense. You are always in a shitting contest with someone here; it's never just football talk. Always conflict. Weak minded individual, very obvious

[TheGreatestOfAllTimeCam]

11 hours ago, AceBoogie said:

If you can't be confident that your 15-1 team can beat a 10-6 theyve already defeated then why are you here? 

 I am objective. 

We will win, but not cover. But there are people here who just don't get it, saying we will win by 2 TD's etc.

Filled with unrealistic expectations that I doubt people really even believe. 

[TheGreatestOfAllTimeCam]

1 minute ago, Kuechly59 said:

I'm curious what is the highest level of education you have completed? I'm guessing dropout from your lack of grammar punctuation and a linear thought process.

want to compare W-2's when you get yours in april?

[TheGreatestOfAllTimeCam]

2 minutes ago, 15 said:

How many times are you gonna flip flop before kickoff?

I never said seattle would win, but they will definitely cover. 

[TheGreatestOfAllTimeCam]

1 minute ago, Kuechly59 said:

He needs perma banned.

god you're always right on cue; you ever go outside for a walk? Your data entry job allows for you to always have an eye on this forum, doesn't it.