Reverse line movement

[Carl Spackler]

I'd feel better about our odds if I didn't think they had a huge advantage over us between their ends and our tackles, and their WR and our CB minus Norman. Seattle is gonna try to blow it open early by zone blitzing the poo out of us

[CPcavedweller]

2 hours ago, 15 said:

You voted for Seattle to win this game too? You two were the only Panther "fans" that picked Seattle lol...

No. I picked us to win 21-18. Go search the thread. I said it would, for all intents and purposes, be a back and forth affair that is relatively low scoring. However, I wouldn't say that we lose simply because I can't do that.

If you make a claim, back it up with a direct quote. 

Lawyered. 

[CPcavedweller]

2 hours ago, 15 said:

You voted for Seattle to win this game too? You two were the only Panther "fans" that picked Seattle lol...

I get what you mean, as far as voting goes, misclick.

For your viewing pleasure.

" If we start out fast and can actually finish the damn game, we win by 17 points.  If we trade punches with Seattle, 3 point game either way. I don't see Wilson making enough mistakes with the ball in crucial situations for us to run away with the game and I don't envision our offense performing much better against their defense then their offense will perform against our defense.  21-18 Panthers "

[TheGreatestOfAllTimeCam]

More crash course. This game opened at -2.5, -3 in some spots.

we went 15-1, we beat seattle by 4 at their place earlier in the year. Now we are home. Only favored by 3, why not higher? I would have expected at least -4.5 or -4 bare minimum (even with the way some of you talk here - that we will cake walk them). 

I will tell you why it isn't higher. It's because Vegas is that damn good. They throw out the -3 and the -2.5 and now the -1.5 because it is a classic Vegas mindf--- line, and those greedy bastards know seattle is the right side and they want all the suckers to jump out and grab the panthers at just -2.5 or less, and an ambush comes on Sunday.

have you seen how many big nice buildings are in Vegas? Nothing is this simple and this line stinks 

[NYPantherFan]

Asked a friend who is pretty big into gambling and he said it sounds about right.

 

You have to remember this game was -7 Seahawks three months ago with the Seahawks at home. I figured Carolina would open as favorites of at least -3 since they were at home, but believed this would be a pickem game when it kicked off. I think you will see things settle out tomorrow with the public being pretty even. It's already down to 60/40.

For what it's worth, my friend says he doesn't think the spread will even matter in this game and the winner is in the high 20s

[TheGreatestOfAllTimeCam]

Carolina is 0-5 off a bye week under Ron Rivera. He is not a coach that changes the paradigm off a bye. 

Our defense has shown signs of leakage lately. Not that I think we get exploded upon and give up 30; but the sledgehammer defense has not played well over the last month+. 

Marshawn Lynch is playing; that was announced today. That should at least get some bets in on Seattle but looking at the early lie of things; it makes me uncomfortable. I would have liked to see us getting points or even pick em line; and with us only getting 30% of the tickets. 

[TheGreatestOfAllTimeCam]

6 hours ago, Jmac said:

Vegas pinheads and assorted bookies don't take the field come Sunday (last time I checked). Piss your money away fools.

No; they bet $100,000 and $200,000 on the outcome. Many of them aren't Pinheads but masters of their field. They are very, very smart people. And I don't know if you've known someone who bets that kind of money on a football game, but I have known a couple; and when they do they are very, very sure of the outcome before it happens. 

[TheGreatestOfAllTimeCam]

6 hours ago, Moorgan said:

Didn't one of them tease 9.5 points for the Seahawks? That's not a bad bet. I don't think it's enough but that's not a bet against the Panthers but a bet that it's a close game.

I made the largest bet of the season on the tease. I couldn't bring myself to bet against the panthers outright but I have Seattle +9.5 and Arizona as a Pick to win for my largest bet of the season. If we win by 10 and I lose my entire account, so be it. I'll happily take that. Unfortunately I don't see it. 

[TheGreatestOfAllTimeCam]

6 hours ago, stankowalski said:

I know nothing about gambling.  That said...if 70% of the public bet on us at -3, SHOULDN'T the line move down?  I mean all I hear is how the house wants to basically get even money on both sides.  So the line moving down I would assume would be to get more money bet on the Seahawks.

That is a common misconception; Vegas is very greedy on some games and good enough setting the line that they can set the line in a manner so a large number of losing tickets are in on one side; which is what they're doing with us. If we are truly getting pounded as numbers suggest at 70% or greater, the line should be going up not down. It should move to Carolina -4.0, or Carolina -4.5 or Carolina -3.5 at the very least. But thus the title of this thread, line is moving down.... they know something and this line completely stinks. Not ALWAYS 100% of the time is this an indicator of an outcome but I have been doing this a long time and usually, and unfortunately; the other side in reverse line movement is the winning side in a complete ambush. 

[TheGreatestOfAllTimeCam]

3 minutes ago, Kuechly59 said:

Yeah no we came off a bye to beat the Seahawks this season.... That kind of proves your entire 0-for wrong stfu you baby.

0-5 prior to that; prior to this season. 1-5 off a bye week lifetime, which is terrible.

Make sure you dig up this thread Sunday night okay? And try not to get us both suspended again. You're just constant. 

[MVPccaffrey]

Heard Cowherd talking about it today on his show (he picked Seattle straight up).  There is concern among vegas sharps about our defense; Like Seattle, we are really good at holding bad and mediocre QBs to very low point totals, but against Eli, Brees, Luck, Rodgers, etc, they have become aware that we are giving up scores in the high 20s and 30s.  Funny enough the "best" QB point total was 23 points allowed against Wilson, though that was when their offense was struggling.  

 

This is why I was laughing at the idea of McDermott getting an HC job.  We have 4 all pro defensive players yet we bleed points against the better QBs.  And that's what vegas is expecting to happen.

 

For what it's worth the line has moved back to -2 on most books.

[TheGreatestOfAllTimeCam]

17 minutes ago, Kuechly59 said:

Yeah no we came off a bye to beat the Seahawks this season.... That kind of proves your entire 0-for wrong stfu you baby.

Go ahead and put some money on Carolina -1 or -1.5 then if you are so sure, and make sure you post your ticket here; a picture of it. Wiseguy

[MVPccaffrey]

Oh and obviously vegas sharps can't predict the future.  The best lifetime sharps I think are only about 55-57% against the spread in their career, but over a sample size of hundreds or even thousands, that's enough to make quite the living.  They sure are definitely better prognosticators than anybody on the huddle, no question about it.  Hopefully they pound some cash our way before the game.

[TheGreatestOfAllTimeCam]

6 minutes ago, Camvp said:

Oh and obviously vegas sharps can't predict the future.  The best lifetime sharps I think are only about 55-57% against the spread in their career, but over a sample size of hundreds or even thousands, that's enough to make quite the living.  They sure are definitely better prognosticators than anybody on the huddle, no question about it.  Hopefully they pound some cash our way before the game.

It's just a really bad early indicator - coupled with the way I think I am feeling and a lot of others who are realists. The guys in this forum just kill me who say we'll win by 2 TD"s and all that stupidness. I hope we win, it will kill me if we don't, I'll be depressed the rest of the playoffs, might not watch another game; but if I am completely honest with the facts and what I know and had to bet my life on this game; I already know the outcome really.