2016 Roster Churn

[SpclKen]

There are 20 teams in the NFL who are starting their offseason evaluations, 7 teams looking to hire a new coach, and 3 new general managers. With the success of the Panther's regular season (and hopefully post season) this year, there will be a large amount of teams looking at the upcoming Carolina FAs and RFA's. Since the Panthers are in a holding pattern waiting for the wildcard round to finish so they can prepare, I though I would do a little primer of what this offseason has in store for the Panthers. 

 

First of all Gettleman has done work in locking up long-term talent and there is relatively little left to be done in locking up starters on the roster for next year. There are a few big names and contributors that are still without contracts going into the 2016 season. I will give you their current salary, their age, name and position and if they are an RFA or FA. A quick reminder for those that do not know, a restricted free agent is a player that has accrued 3 seasons in the NFL, but not 4 seasons. Their current team can offer them a tender offer (negotiated in the CBA), the player is then allowed to negotiate with other teams, if another team offers them a better contract and the player signs that contract, the current team has a chance to match that offer and retain the player, or let the player leave, and sometimes receive draft compensation.

 

Player                              Position                     Age        2015 Cap          Status            

Mike Tolbert                     FB                            30            3.425 M            UFA                 

My Take: RB over 30? Gone! Well, that is what everyone in the analytic circles say, but he has consistently been a great teammate, worker, and roll-player. Hes great fit in the read option, versatile back that i think gets resigned because of the contributions and variety of roles he plays on the offense. I think he wants to retire a panther and will be given that option especially after a probowl year. When Jerry Richardson gives you a nickname, you know you are liked by the organization. I think he stays around the 2.5-3.5 million a year cap hit, and given a 2-3 year extension. Teams moving away from the FB roll greatly decreases his value on the open market.

Roman Harper                 SS                            33           1.8 M                UFA

My Take: Really surprised me this year, has elevated his play and been a huge mentor to the young DB group. I think he was instrumental this year and still has the desire to play, but with a deep playoff run, I do not see the Panthers or Harper agreeing on a roll or compensation that will fit into the plan next year, there are 3-3 young players with more speed and with Coleman playing lights out, this spot will go to a younger player in 2016.

Josh Norman                    CB                           28             1.591 M            UFA

My Take: Panthers reportedly offered Norman a 7-8 M per year contract last offseason. He has played great this year and has held his position, played with fire, and provided excellent interviews all year long. I am less high than most on the long term prospects or benefits of keeping Norman on the roster. I do not see Gettleman overpaying for Norman's services, and Norman wants to be a top paid CB in the league, I think Carolina values him less than he values himself. Roman Harper said it best. "We have a bunch of really good football players, but most of them realize they wouldn't be as good if they weren't on this team". Josh Norman is a very good player, but he's not a corner you give a 5 year 70 million contract too, and I think another team will overpay for his services in 2017, as for 2016, this guy is tagged or signs a contract for around 10-12 million a year, not 14-15 he wants.

Amini Silatolu                   G                             27              1.5 M                 UFA

My Take: Actually feel really bad for this guy. Played really well off the bench this year until he was injured and placed on IR. Could provide valuable depth and is a possible starting caliber guard in the NFL If he can recover and be healthy. I think there is a very low possibility he is back next year because I  know Carolina will not pay him as a starter with Norwell and Turner on the roster. He either stays on a small contract because of his injury, or a team takes a flier on paying for a talented but oft injured starting guard. I think Carolina let's him go and hopes for a compensatory draft pick.

Charles Tilman                 CB                           34               1.5 M              UFA

My Take: Thanks for the last year of your career Tillman. Wish he was healthy for the playoffs, but he is hanging up his cleats and finishing a phenomenal career in 2015.

JJ Jansen                         LS                            29               1 M                 UFA

My Take: They sign him on a vet minimum contract and bring in young talent to compete with him in Training Camp. They will pay him if they can't find a younger, cheaper longsnapper. Has been very consistent, but his vet minimum is getting up there because his years of service.

Frank Alexander              DE                            26               750k              UFA

My Take: Super disappointing 4th round pick. He coulda been a contender, after a year long drug suspension and a ruptured Achillis, the Panthers are done waiting, and i am guessing so is the NFL.

Kyle Love                         DT                            29              745K              UFA

My Take: I think he signs a contract to continue playing in a rotational spot for Carolina. Has been a very good find by Gettleman, and has produced in his spot duties.

Brad Nortman                  P                                26              680k             UFA

My Take: Resigned at a top 10 punter contract, special teams Bomb Squad stays intact, valuable player at flipping field position.

Joe Webb                        QB/ST                        29              665k             UFA

My Take: Surprisingly enough, i think Joe web signs another contract, last year Rivera talked about finding some special teams players that were dedicated, and Joe Webb has carved out a position on the 53 man roster basically doing anything and everything that is asked of him. 3rd QB, Gunner, WR, motivator and lunch pail type of player is retained because he is versatile and buys into the system.

Chris Scott                      G                               28               665K             UFA

My Take: Backup well liked, but not needed in a deep and healthy Oline, i think Scott is expendable with Remmers (coming up) moving to a backup utility olineman.

Stephen Hill                    WR                            24              594K               RFA

My Take: Bad timing for a devastating injury, this was the year he was needed after KB's injury and never got a chance to show his refined route running and hands. I think he get's signed to a one year deal to prove his rehab in Training Camp next year. Not guaranteed a roster spot.

Tyronne Green               G                              29               585K               UFA

My Take: I have no clue who this guy is, didn't even know he was on the roster! I guess he is the cousin of Ladarious Green TE for the Chargers who had a decent season. I doubt he is on the team next year being a 4th round pick in 2009. Suffered an Achilles tear in June of this year. On IR.

Ben Jacobs                     LB                            27              585k                 RFA

My Take: Jacobs is gone next year, with the LB corps we have an the next draft being loaded and LB talent, he does not get resigned.

Mike Remmers                RT                            26              585k              ERFA

My Take: Remmers is rewarded a long term contract with Carolina next year, although I think he looses his starting spot next year, he has played every position in camp and becomes the first player off the bench for G, T, and C and is our swing lineman for the forseeable future.

Fernando Velasco           G                             30             550K                UFA

My Take: Not on the team next year

Brenton Bersin               WR

My Take: Makes it to camp next year, but out of eligibility on PS and has a small chance to take Cotchery's spot on the team as a possession receiver and ST contributor. Bottom of the roster guy and is not on the 53 for more than 3 games next year if at all.

Cortland Finnegan         CB

My Take: Great late season signing, and still too early to see if he plays well enough to be given a contract to provide depth at the CB position next year. If Josh Norman is not tagged or signed to a long term deal, He will make the 53 next year.

 

So I say Tolbert, Remmers, Webb, and Brad Nortman are the main players that receive multi-year contract offers and Josh Norman is tagged. I think only 2-3 players will receive multi year contract offers  from other teams including Amini Silatolu, and Kyle Love and possibly Chris Scott.

 

(all numbers taken from Spotrac)

[London Loves Luke]

Solid post. I think the chances of Norman getting a longer term contract here are a bit higher and KK will also soak up most of the remaining cap space along with him.

Like the idea of Bersin taking Cotchery's place as the key possession guy but think we may hold on to Cotch one more year to support a still-young WR room.

[caatfan]

5 minutes ago, SpclKen said:

Surprisingly enough, i think Joe web signs another contract

Why would it be surprising? He's a good ST player and being able to play QB is a bonus. It's possible that the roster make up next season doesn't doesn't include him, but he is a versatile player. 

Other than that I don't have much interest in a topic like this until the season's over. 

[SpclKen]

3 minutes ago, caatfan said:

Why would it be surprising? 

I am looking at this as I feel he was originally signed to be a camp arm when Cam was recovering from his ankle surgery. He is now a solid contributor, but if you would have asked me last off season or at his original signing I don't think I would have said he would be such a contributor or active on gamedays, much less given a multi year contract. 

 

I decided to do this because there is only so much I can read about the Seahawks or other possible matchups during a bye week... or the superbowl halftime show. This stuff is just interesting to me from a teambuilding perspective, and I think this type of evaluation goes on all year. 

[*FreeFua*]

Nortman ranks 18th in average distance and 17th in net average. I don't think he deserves to be paid like a top 10 punter

With those stats/numbers I just think this is an area where Gettleman might be able to find a cheaper replacement and save some money.

[Toker Smurf]

If we aren't keeping Alexander,  why hasn't he already been cut. Something to do with injury settlement maybe? 

[DelhommesTheMan]

Nice take.  CJ, Allen, and Harper are almost assured to be cut which would give the Panthers nearly 40million in cap room.    That's a significant amount of space for a team with this much talent.  The interesting part will be what do they do with JStew?  Cutting Stewart and handing the job to Artis Payne could free up a lot more room, and the money can be used to get stronger at another thin position.  Love Jstew but would I take him over a CB or SS to replace Harper when we have CAP?  Norman will be franchised for sure, and hopefully a long term deal can be reached with KK.  The question will be greater in 2017 when Norman is a FA again and so is Star, but I feel confident that next years roster will be considerably better than this years which says a lot.  We do need CB depth and DE depth/starters (someone opposite Ealy unless CJ comes back at a much cheaper rate) Ealy deserves a shot to start next year.  

[Ship]

it's tough because after the injuries and the way he has played after coming back, i'm not sure i'd even want CJ at a lower price. right now he seems to have been sapped by injury in a big way. i think if he comes out guns blazing in the playoffs and starts tearing it up, then maybe he should be extended or renegotiate into a retirement contract on the cheap. plus, my other consideration is Kony. this is totally just based off me watching games and in interviews and things, but i think Kony is entering a pivotal moment in his career, and i think CJ coming back and messing up his sack streak was no good. Kony needs to be/feel like the man if he is going to flourish here. and i'm not saying you just give it to him for that reason, but he has proven to have the potential to take it to the next level if he gets enough reps and support. i also don't think there is anything bad between Kony and CJ, but i just think for Kony to take the next step, CJ needs to either take a much reduced role or be gone or else Kony could turn into a sour apple.

Kevin Love has been huge for us. he is a great rotational guy with a little extra umph compared to Dwan or Cole, i think Love gets a solid 3 year deal from us this offseason. we need to find another DT like him in the draft or FA. we might grab both and have a little competition.

I agree that Tolbert is not only a talented and multidimensional player on the field, he is a big part of the personality of our locker room. he seems to have rebounded well from his injury last season and should get a reasonable contract to finish out his career here.

for some reason it feels like Alexander is staying, but it might just be because of the injury. anyway, i think he is gone, which is so sad, but hey, it happens.

Remmers will be interesting because he knows he's on the hot seat here because of the rookie, and yes he has had some bad games this season, but he has also shown to the league that he can start in the right system. i bet we come with an offer that is basically a multi-year premium backup deal and tell him he will compete in camp. the question is, does he accept that or does he wanna remain a starter potentially somewhere else? i see this as being an AJ-lite situation, because relatively speaking i don't think Remmers is as good, but he is still capable as a starter. he also seems to have a hot streak-- at least on the field-- and that may come into how he views his new worth. i think he ultimately takes it, or goes to FA like Munnerlyn did the first time, doesn't like the money he sees, and then comes back for a shorter, cheaper deal, or hell, maybe someone bites because of the Panthers brand.

Ben Jacobs, Chris Scott, Amini and Bersin are all solid guys and they have marinated on this team for a while now. they all have also shown resilience as panthers-- Ben was likely to be cut, but he came to camp this year and played so well that they had to cut Trusnik instead. Scott came in over weight and was let go, he was picked back up after injuries and has seemed to follow the program and played well in spot duty and special teams. every time i see him on the sidelines or field he seems very happy to be here, i don't think he'll screw up again. amini is similar, in that he has had injury issues and some mental set backs, but he appears to be comfortable and reliable on this team. i don't think we let him go. finally, bersin has a well known story of practice squad work ethic and that hasn't changed. i think he comes back and battles for one of the last 2 spots at WR again and probably will make it. i think they all get a vet minimum 2 year deal offer.

Tillman is probably retired, but it would be really cool if he ends up sticking around the team somehow.

Finnegan i could honestly see sticking around for a 2 year deal or something short, kind of a play/pay as you go type contract. i think he competes for a spot after we add another CB in the draft or FA or both, and he may make it.

JJ and Joe Webb get similar vet offers for another couple of years. i think JJ is super important and there's no need to fix something that isn't broke. JJ probably gets some kind of competition in camp next year but Joe is huge for Cam i think and huge for our culture.

Josh i think gets the tag. i think we work on KK's deal first this summer like Cam and we do Josh after like Luke if there is still time. it's kind of worrisome, but i think Josh will be a good sport about the tag. he may decide to go too far out of our price range, which is too bad, but i am confident that with Wilks we will continue to grow talented DBs.

I think Roman gets a play/pay as you contract too and i think he takes it and we keep him until Tre or another safety finally over takes him.

I think we try and extend Oher and maybe Coleman too since they are on 2 year deals i think. Also include Ginn if he is a 2 year guy, but he may be 3.

I also think we could do something with Klein, either extend him, extend him and trade him, or just trade him. i think we trade him only if he asks for it or if there is meaningful interest in him.

[KB_fan]

1 hour ago, Cam El said:

If we aren't keeping Alexander,  why hasn't he already been cut. Something to do with injury settlement maybe? 

He's suspended for another year, so we're not having to pay him right now.

[KB_fan]

Great post, thanks.

Forgive me for not looking it up myself (I'm not really all that up to speed on the contract & salary websites), but what's the status of McClain & DelAire.  Did we sign them to two year contracts, or just as stop-gaps for this year?

I sure don't envy Gettleman his job.  Some tough choices.  It's fantastic he's so cool headed and manages to stay true to the vision of the long-term best for the team, rather than letting personal loyalties to players get in the way.  It works well to have him at GM, and Ron, who's kind of a softy and clearly gets attached to some of his players, as coach.  They work well as a team,

[w280sax]

Do you think we keep kk and star long term or will one walk?  They both are under contract next year and star could get a 5th year option...is that correct.

Also, i am  curious  what a top 10 punter goes for in todays nfl.

Also, kudos to the original poster on this thread.  Good work.

[w280sax]

9 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

Great post, thanks.

Forgive me for not looking it up myself (I'm not really all that up to speed on the contract & salary websites), but what's the status of McClain & DelAire.  Did we sign them to two year contracts, or just as stop-gaps for this year?

I sure don't envy Gettleman his job.  Some tough choices.  It's fantastic he's so cool headed and manages to stay true to the vision of the long-term best for the team, rather than letting personal loyalties to players get in the way.  It works well to have him at GM, and Ron, who's kind of a softy and clearly gets attached to some of his players, as coach.  They work well as a team,

I like this site for contract info. 

According to it, we have delaire on a 3 year contract that he signed with tb originally and we signed mcclain for 2 years.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/carolina-panthers/ryan-delaire/

[t96]

10 minutes ago, w280sax said:

Do you think we keep kk and star long term or will one walk?  They both are under contract next year and star could get a 5th year option...is that correct.

Also, i am  curious  what a top 10 punter goes for in todays nfl.

I think Short ends up a Panther for life. Star will almost certainly stay through his 5th year option I believe but not sure he gets an extension. Hope we keep him but KK is more important.

[SpclKen]

52 minutes ago, Ship said:

Ben Jacobs, Chris Scott, Amini and Bersin, Roman ETC

OK this was a great post and what I was hoping for. This is the problem with a 15 win team. It is a deep roster filled with contributors. The issue is that we are going to have 4-5 draft picks, 1-3 FA barging bin shopping, and 1-2 udfa's or practice squad players make the team. This means we need 6-10 roster spots open up and there is no way we can keep all the players you refrenced. Especially guys getting up into their 30's. They are more expensive and declining in skill.

After the poster called me out on Nortman, I think he may be right. He is getting expensive and a middle of the road punter in 2015. In 14 PFF had him ranked in top 5 in open field punts, and his hang time is impressive, but DG is always going to look to build through the draft which means older players are going to get pushed out.