2007 16-0 Patriots vs. 2016 14-0 Panthers

[MHS831]

In the event any of you were curious....

Division Strength: The 2007 Pats hailed from a soft division, as do the Panthers in 2015--but the AFC East was so weak, it makes the NFC South look formidable.  The Bills won 7 games, the Jets won 4, and the Dolphins won 1 game that season--for a combined .250 win percentage.   Currently, the Panther's NFC South opponents' records are 7-7 (Falcons), 6-8 (Bucs) and Saints (5-9), for a win percentage of .428.   

Dominance:  The Patriots played 3 games during the 2007 season that were decided by one score (8 points) or less.  Half of the Panthers games (7) have been decided by one score or less....The Patriots scored a whopping 589 points that season, surrendering only 274 for an incredible +315 difference.  The Panthers are currently at 449 points scored vs.278 for a +171 difference.  If current averages play out, the Panthers will finish with 513 points for the season and will have surrendered 318 for a +195 differential.

Reading the Tea Leaves:  By these numbers, the Panthers do not seem to be as dominant as the 2007 Patriots.  What can be learned from this?  Nothing, unless you consider that the 2007 Patriots did not win the Super Bowl.  Could it be that they were not accustomed to playing in close games? Perhaps.  While I disagree that losing a game is productive, I think winning too easily is counterproductive.  On the other hand, the Panthers have been dancing with the devil all season, and sooner or later, there will be a card to pay.  Think about it--Norman's interception vs. the McCown-led Saints,  TD's interception to halt the Packers, The Olsen TD at Seattle when the defense broke down, Gano's FGs vs. the Colts and Giants, etc.

The point is--the Panthers find ways to win, but they rarely seem to play above the level of their competition.  Will they continue to do so with teams gunning for them?  You all wanted respect--from newspaper reporters to TV announcers--something I never cared about.  Now we have the limelight, and we are not the team we were at the beginning of the season.  What that means remains to be seen.

[Sapper]

We're pretty much all in at this point fortunately or unfortunately.  The Falcon's game is the last game this year in which we can afford the 'drop one to ease the pressure' since we certainly cannot go into the playoffs coming off a loss to Tampa.  With Ron's shaky off the bye record, every fan would be sleepless for 2 weeks.

Best case scenario is we play 2 full games as if it were preseason game number 3 and win in convincing fashion, resting starters while knowing our 2nd unit can hold onto the lead.

Understandable case scenario is we play our defensive until the final whistle and tune them up for 60 full minutes of football regardless of the score.

[TheRumGone]

Brady also had all-world randy moss.

i think this squad is tougher intangible wise than the 2007 patriots. 

Good info MHS

[TheRumGone]

And also for a bit of history: saints dropped three in a row to end their season after starting perfect and went on to win it all. This all goes through Cam and our front fours ability to pressure IMO. This is where legends are built. I believe in Cam to get us there

[TheRed]

Patriots division has been pure poo for more than a decade.

In fact, the only quarterback to win the division other than Brady since 2001 has been Chad Pennington twice with two different teams.

[Cyberjag]

Here's what you really need to know about the two clubs.  The Patriots had a historically good offense, that started out as tops in the league by far, and steadily got worse as the season progressed.  Their defense was it's typical solid unit, and one that also got a little worse as the season progressed.  Note that the Panthers defense has also gotten worse as the season progressed.

If you plot both defenses against each other, and add trendlines, they both have a surprisingly similar slope (0.4 vs. 0.4).  But the offensive production of Carolina has continually improved where the Patriot's got worse.  The trendlines for those two units (Pats. vs. Carolina) have slopes of -0.7 vs. 1.3.  Basically, the Panthers have improved over the course of the year while the Patriots play declined.  That carried over into the playoffs for them, as they scored 31, 21, and 14 in their three games.

Here are their averages by "quarter" of the season:

	1	2	3	4	16-game Slope
Patriots Off	37	45.75	34.5	30	-0.7
Patriots Def	12	19.75	20.5	16.25	0.4
Panthers Off	27	30	36.25	38	1.3
Panthers Def	17.75	23.5	19.5	17.5	0.4

TL;DR - They got worse, we're getting better

[Jangler]

2015 Panthers

[Donald LaFell]

At this point in the season I feel we would get slaughtered considering our "Achilles heel" is playing anybody good. 

[MHS831]

2 hours ago, Cyberjag said:

Here's what you really need to know about the two clubs.  The Patriots had a historically good offense, that started out as tops in the league by far, and steadily got worse as the season progressed.  Their defense was it's typical solid unit, and one that also got a little worse as the season progressed.  Note that the Panthers defense has also gotten worse as the season progressed.

If you plot both defenses against each other, and add trendlines, they both have a surprisingly similar slope (0.4 vs. 0.4).  But the offensive production of Carolina has continually improved where the Patriot's got worse.  The trendlines for those two units (Pats. vs. Carolina) have slopes of -0.7 vs. 1.3.  Basically, the Panthers have improved over the course of the year while the Patriots play declined.  That carried over into the playoffs for them, as they scored 31, 21, and 14 in their three games.

Here are their averages by "quarter" of the season:

	1	2	3	4	16-game Slope
Patriots Off	37	45.75	34.5	30	-0.7
Patriots Def	12	19.75	20.5	16.25	0.4
Panthers Off	27	30	36.25	38	1.3
Panthers Def	17.75	23.5	19.5	17.5	0.4

TL;DR - They got worse, we're getting better

Great stuff.

[MHS831]

2 hours ago, Jangler said:

2015 Panthers

Duh.  Must have been thinking of the Super Bowl.

[Frank Hollywood]

Any info on their entire strength of schedule during their regular season that year and ours this year?

All week I've been hearing from haters saying we have by far the easiest strength of schedule this year even though I don't think we're even in the top 5.

[KillerKat]

7 minutes ago, Frank Hollywood said:

Any info on their entire strength of schedule during their regular season that year and ours this year?

All week I've been hearing from haters saying we have by far the easiest strength of schedule this year even though I don't think we're even in the top 5.

Didnt we have the hardest in the league at the beginning of the season? Thats the only time I think it counts. You can't change poo and make up your own standards as it happens.

[Davidson Deac II]

8 minutes ago, Frank Hollywood said:

Any info on their entire strength of schedule during their regular season that year and ours this year?

All week I've been hearing from haters saying we have by far the easiest strength of schedule this year even though I don't think we're even in the top 5.

I can't vouch for accuracy, but here is one listing.

http://nfltraderumors.co/nfl-strength-of-schedule-rankings/

Of course, one of the reasons that our opponents appear weak is that they have played us. 

[Major wRecktum]

I would add that most of our close games this season involved inclement weather. I'm not professing that we would have won with bigger margins, but rain and slippery conditions really don't do our style of offence any favors and it negates, in large part, the speed of our defense. Dink and dunk/ screens out of the backfield work well because of the momentum gained by the ball carrier.