Top Secret! A multi-faceted game plan to defeat the 2015 Carolina Panthers

[PhillyB]

Nobody mail this post to Tom Coughlin.

The Panthers are 13-0. With three games left in the regular season, they've got a target on their backs. Nobody wants a piece, but everybody wants to be the ones to take them down. We've all heard the tired old tropes: bracket Greg Olsen, keep Cam Newton in the pocket. Thirteen fanbases have offered that suggestion, and starting with sacrificial lamb Gus Bradley, thirteen teams have found out it's an insufficient strategy. Greg Olsen is too good, Cam is too good, and the Panthers are two good as a collective squad to let a limitation to one part cripple the performance of the whole. And with the highest-scoring offense and the lowest-scored-upon defense in the NFL, there's no stopping them. All you can do is limit them and pray it's enough.

But every Death Star has its thermal exhaust port, and every scrappy team of underdogs has a pair of proton torpedoes at their disposal, so it would be the height of hubris to interchange Panthers dominance with Panthers invincibility. In light of this fact, here are eight distinct ways the Panthers roster, schemes, and tendencies can be exploited in a compact, mutually-inclusive game plan. Though certain personnel variations will help, theoretically any team in the league could pull it off with the proper execution, with chances increased accordingly.

Without further ado:

 

On Offense

1) Spread 'em out. Nothing groundbreaking here; teams have been using spread formations to marginalize top-tier cornerbacks for years. With Josh Norman in the mix this seems obvious enough; but now, with Benwikere out and Tillman fighting a knee sprain, you can spread the Panthers thin by forcing questionable talent on the field. Knowing Josh Norman is going to stay outside - and that returning Panther Robert McClain could be a liability wherever he plays - teams with top-shelf receiving talent could choose to rotate their WR1s inside in an attempt to create a mismatch. The Falcons found late-game success with it, and it's likely the Giants will try something similar with Odell Beckham Jr. on Sunday. Here is a formation and route combo that could take advantage of current personnel:

 

 

The important thing here is that the WR1 is matched up against the CB3, or nickel corner. You win games by creating mismatches, and here you've done it: both starting outside corners are going to be occupied by subpar receivers, and unless they happen to be playing cover three zone with Norman (CB1) assigned deep up the sideline, you've got your best receiver isolated against their nickel. Beckham Jr. versus Cortland Finnegan or Colin Jones? Eli will throw that all day. Note the tight end's fly route and the X receiver's complex route at the bottom of your screen keep both safeties occupied in diagnosis and deep coverage, and away from the targeted man. This is a winning play for the offense.

 

2) Take advantage of Kurt Coleman's aggressiveness. Easily the best offseason addition to the defense, Coleman has 7 INTs on the year and he's gotten them by playing incredibly aggressive football at the free safety position. As noted earlier in the season, the team has used this to their advantage, frequently moving Coleman to the line of scrimmage pre-snap to disguise the coverage (and sending him on occasional blitzes from that position.) But his aggressiveness has cost him more than once. Consider this play early in the week thirteen matchup against the Saints:

 

 

The Saints run a simple clear-out, sending the guys at the top of your screen deep while #16 drags across the formation into the vacated space. Coleman, bracketed in red, stays poised between the box and the routes developing past him watches the play unfold. So far, so good. But take a look at the next screen. As #16 enters the vacated zone Coleman instantly drops in, zeroing in on the receiver to make the stop. Coleman exhibits great instincts here, but in his hurry to tackle the ball carrier he under-pursues, possibly trying to lay the wood rather than secure the tackle, as he's prone to doing, and ends up whiffing on the horribly-angled stop.

 

 

The result of the play was a missed tackle, a 31-yard gain, and a setup for the Saints' first score. This isn't the first time Kurt Coleman has missed tackles (or assignments) due to over-pursuit or hair-trigger aggression and it won't be the last; a smart coordinator figures out how to exploit this.

 

3) Beat Roman Harper. Strictly speaking he's probably the weakest link on the defense, which says a lot because he's having a pretty good year. For reasons that escape almost everyone - in particular offensive coordinators - McDermott likes to bring Coleman down into the box pre-snap and let Harper range deep in coverage Normally these roles are reversed. Of course, this is often only a coverage disguise, but Harper is very often left deep to diagnose downfield threats and roll coverage accordingly. He's mentally quick but his body can take longer to react, and this can be exploited. The Saints confused him in week thirteen for a touchdown; here's a telling look all the way back in week four against the Buccaneers:

 

 

Here Norman notched another pick-six and cemented his status as a shutdown corner for the rest of the season. But hiding behind the success of the play is the fact that Jameis Winston could've gone deep on this play instead. He missed the read: the receiver on the outside, at the top of your screen, was streaking upfield on a pattern that left him alone as Harper pursued the tight end inside. If Winston had read this he would've beaten Harper handily with some anticipation on the throw. A pre-snap audible could've sent that receiver on a deep pattern and would've resulted in a wide-open touchdown pass.

Speed kills Roman Harper, and if offensive coordinators spot these deep strong safety looks - especially on those unbalanced lines or bunch formations - they'd better be alerting their quarterbacks to audible some deep routes past him, especially when the free safety doesn't move back off the line. They may score.

 

4) Double the interior pass block. Carolina leads the league in sacks, but half of them have come from the defensive tackle position. This is due both to the overwhelming talent and depth at the interior positions, but it's also symptomatic of an outside pass rush that's often anemic without dramatic inside pressure or a linebacker blitz. Until they prove otherwise, ends Charles Johnson and Jared Allen can be handled by a single offensive tackle. Chip a tight end or a running back if you need to, but save that extra guard to hold back Kawann Short or stuff Star Lotulelei at the point of attack. Keep an interior pocket clean and the quarterback will be able to step up into it, past the flailing arms of defensive ends forced outside in pursuit.

 

On Defense

 

5) Play tight press coverage on the outside. Watch every interception Cam's thrown this year and a common thread emerges: frozen ropes to the sideline on those quick outs are vulnerable to being nabbed by physical, fast-reacting cornerbacks. Cam is one of the only quarterbacks in the NFL that can consistently make those types of throws, and they're usually good for ten or fifteen yards. They're damn near unstoppable with the kind of mustard he puts on them. But if you've got a corner playing physical man coverage and the throw is the slightest bit off target - or the receiver makes a mistake on the route - it's a pick and maybe even six points the other way. Sean Payton no doubt recognized this in week thirteen, and here we see cornerback Devin Breaux lined up close across from Ted Ginn Jr. halfway through the first quarter.

 

 

The call is a quick hitch inside. In the only good play he made all day, Breaux recognized the call and leveraged himself inside the route. 

 

 

The pass is only off by about six inches, but it's enough for Breaux to fight past Ginn's outstretched arms and snag it. The ensuing Saints drive would put the Panthers down by 14, their worst situational position of the entire season. Good defensive coordinators have to recognize this, and may try to clamp down on these routes down the stretch in an effort to force similar mistakes.

 

6) Jam Greg Olsen and then bracket him. Yeah, that's been done before, and it's become an un-funny joke at this point. But there's a difference between trying to do it and actually doing it. The Titans didn't bother contacting him at all off the line and he destroyed them in the first half. The Jaguars committed three defensive players per snap to shutting him out and held him to a very pedestrian performance. Of course, both teams lost in the end, but there's a clear difference in outcomes between plans that involve stunting his route development and forcing him to find space between linebackers and safeties and just treating him as another challenge to an rigid system that just needs to execute. 

The moral of the story is the Jaguars held Greg Olsen to 1 reception for 11 yards. Incidentally, the Panthers scored a season-low 20 points against the Jaguars. Do what they did, defenses.

 

7) Commit a free safety deep. Now that Jonathan Stewart is out for the foreseeable future, stopping the Carolina rushing attack becomes a little bit easier. The passing game is on fire anyway, so it makes sense to concentrate on slowing it down anyway. Key in that process is the free safety. Instead of dropping him in for run support, or letting him cheat down a little just in case, just commit him to rolling coverage in all but incredibly obvious running situations.

Look at these two plays in the last two games:

 

 

Have you noticed they're basically the exact same play? The Panthers absolutely love sending Ginn on those deep crossing routes, usually in layers with other guys at different levels of the field. Cam has the most accurate deep ball in the league, and his propensity for taking those shots downfield means you can't leave a middle linebacker on a guy like Ginn, like the Saints did. You can't count on a corner to play perfect football and release his lower assignment to come upfield and take the coverage. In both of these plays the free safety was late coming over, either because of having to squat down in run support or freezing between Ginn and a lower-tier route.

Keep him deep. It's not even a question, not after the last two weeks. Ted Ginn Jr. will destroy you if you don't.

 

8) Rush the edges. Mike Remmers has racked up a half dozen penalties over the last two games, all of them either holding in pass defense or false starts. He is not playing his best football and he sometimes seems overwhelmed by power moves inside. He is the weakest link on a very, very stout unit. The interior line is possibly the best in the league, which leaves left tackle Michael Oher as the second weakest link, even though he, too, is playing at a high level. Unlike Remmers, he handles power moves adeptly but occasionally gets beaten by speed rushes around the outside edge.

A good coordinator can pair defensive ends against these two to exploit their respective weaknesses. If you trust your pass defense in coverage, you can also send an extra guy on a C-gap blitz on Remmers' side and one through the left-side B-gap and you could easily come away with major pressure, especially if you're stunting those interior guys at the same time. Cam is sometimes prone to stepping backwards in the face of pressure even if he has a clean pocket, so if you can force those types of throws it's possible to make him pay for it downfield (maybe with that free safety you wisely committed to the deep zone!)

 

That's it. You're welcome, NFL coordinators. That's how you beat the 2015 Carolina Panthers.

But can you?

 

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

 

You'd need to execute all eight plans simultaneously, and the odds of that happening successfully are slim to none. We all know the Death Star has its weaknesses, and proton torpedoes can do catastrophic damage. But you've got one thing wrong: we're not the Death Star. You are. And the Force is on our side, not yours. It's with us, not you.

It's why we're about to go 14-0.

 

View full article

 

[TheNewStandard]

59 minutes ago, PhillyB said:

 

Without further ado:

 

On Offense

View full article

 

1. Spreading the offense only works if the routes have time to develop and spreading the Panthers out allows inside rushes and blitz packages by TD as Shaq/Klein pins the slot and allows Luke to be 1on1 with a RB or to mirror the QB and step in front of the Slot receiver if the RB commits to blocking TD. So the spread actually works to our strengths as new DBs can play man to man with a safety reading the seam.

2. Coleman is a read safety and clear-outs don't work without a crossing TE which opens up stunts for the nickel as Luke and Roman play the second and third tiers. NYG don't have a formidable TE to rub and Addison with TD are both capable of covering screen's while Luke covers the middle with the LE crashing 1on1 with NYG's RT. 

3. There's a good chance that Roman plays zone on bunch formations and rarely jams the line. Luke and TD would crash the gaps in a zone passing down with CJ or Addison left to cover the seam.

4. This would be an obvious passing situation with a possible release if the Panthers go for inside pressure, which they won't, but you can bet the Panthers DL will hold the line and get their hands up, leaving a true man-to-man defensive situation with Luke and TD hitting any releasing backs at the line. 

Eli may be left to rush if their isn't a coverage sack that occurs or just a throw away play.

5. NYG doesn't have the personnel to play a grinder-out game plan so their defense is gonna spend a lot of time trying to get Cam to make poor decisions and will be keeping 8 in the box to try and limit our rushing attack and that's gonna leave a lot of room for a lot of possession receptions by Cotch, Brown and Olsen.

Edited December 17, 2015 by TheNewStandard

[PhillyB]

ban

[uncfan888]

Dude, don't quote the OP..   Especially when it's an article.. And especially when you're the first response to it 

[Moorgan]

Awesome work PhillyB. It's clear that every team is exploitable. It highlights the importance of adjustments and execution. Every military tactic has weaknesses and strengths. The opposition not only has to have the knowledge of that weakness (getting the plans to one wamp rat sized exhaust port) but they have to have the ability to exploit that weakness (the cojones to turn off a targeting computer) and a little luck (like a rapscallion smuggler entering the fray at the right moment).

So I'm the words of Caesar: it's only hubris if I fail.

And to Cam I say: you may fire when ready. 

[Khyber53]

Hrm, flame out, they will.

 

Good read!

[cbarrier90]

Oh man. Last week you said "Just show up" and the Panthers won 38-0.

Now you've gone beyond even that and are actually releasing the game plan to stop the Panthers.

They aren't good, but are the Giants really THAT bad?

[countryboi]

wonderful write up...this kinda content is better than anything we get from ESPN. on a sidenote the deathstar weakness was really really stupid

[UpstatePanther]

1 hour ago, cbarrier90 said:

Oh man. Last week you said "Just show up" and the Panthers won 38-0.

Now you've gone beyond even that and are actually releasing the game plan to stop the Panthers.

They aren't good, but are the Giants really THAT bad?

The Giants are the last team until January that has the ability to stop us. I have held my breath on an undefeated season until this point, waiting to see how the team would respond to the ebbs and flows of the season. They have responded stunningly. So if they win this game, I will officially be on 16-0 watch. 

The Giants defense is terrible, so the only way I see them winning is to somehow exploit our defense and turn this into a shootout. After New Orleans though, I think the Panthers will be wary of making the same mistakes twice. Here's to hoping it won't even be a game and that the Panthers are once again up 21 points in the first quarter.

[Cardiac Cat]

Nah all you gotta do is double Greg and keep Cam in the pocket.

[smash_n_dash]

1 hour ago, countryboi said:

wonderful write up...this kinda content is better than anything we get from ESPN. on a sidenote the deathstar weakness was really really stupid

But they have to have exhaust ports big enough to release all the hot air from the Death Star's core, and it had to be in a straight line to the core otherwise the air wouldn't exhaust right...

[Cary Kollins]

ITS A TRAP

[joeyxfresco]

21 minutes ago, Cardiac Cat said:

Nah all you gotta do is double Greg and keep Cam in the pocket.

Don't forget to stack the box 

[Bartin]

4 hours ago, PhillyB said:

7) Commit a free safety deep. Now that Jonathan Stewart is out for the foreseeable future, stopping the Carolina rushing attack becomes a little bit easier. The passing game is on fire anyway, so it makes sense to concentrate on slowing it down anyway. Key in that process is the free safety. Instead of dropping him in for run support, or letting him cheat down a little just in case, just commit him to rolling coverage in all but incredibly obvious running situations.

Look at these two plays in the last two games:

 

 

Have you noticed they're basically the exact same play? The Panthers absolutely love sending Ginn on those deep crossing routes, usually in layers with other guys at different levels of the field. Cam has the most accurate deep ball in the league, and his propensity for taking those shots downfield means you can't leave a middle linebacker on a guy like Ginn, like the Saints did. You can't count on a corner to play perfect football and release his lower assignment to come upfield and take the coverage. In both of these plays the free safety was late coming over, either because of having to squat down in run support or freezing between Ginn and a lower-tier route.

Keep him deep. It's not even a question, not after the last two weeks. Ted Ginn Jr. will destroy you if you don't.

I disagree here. One safety doesn't cut it against us unless you've got Earl Thomas. You need both playing a deep cover 2 shell. Almost every time the defense lines up single high in cover 3 or cover 1, Cam audibles to a go route to Ginn, Philly or Funchess. Getting to Ginn on the sideline from the middle of the field is an impossible task. This is how the Cowboys shut down our passing attack. It does leave the middle of the field open to be exploited by Olsen and Cotchery, but if you force us to beat you with dink and dunk over the middle than that is your best chance. The Cowboys do have Sean Lee who is one of the best coverage LBs in the NFL and the Giants don't have anyone close to that, but it's a risk you have to take. You have absolutely no chance to stop us with the way Cam is throwing the deep ball right now. There's a chance if you make us sustain long drives down the field as his intermediate accuracy can be hit or miss. If you make him throw it over the middle and hope he misses high leading to INTs.

The opposing fan refrain of "stack the box, contain rush Cam and double Olsen" is exactly what I wouldn't do.