Lucky Birds, Vikings, Cards

[MHS831]

First, a word about the luckiest team in the NFL, the Falcons.

Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons have benefited from opponents dropping their own passes (5.4 percent, third in the NFL) and Matt Ryan's passes (four dropped interceptions). Atlanta has turned the ball over 14 times without any touchdown returns, but its 14 takeaways have led to three touchdown returns. No team has been aided more by opposing kickers, who are just 10-of-15 on field goals with all five of those misses coming indoors. The Falcons have also faced below-average opponent performance on kickoff and punt distance.

Combine all these fortuitous events with Atlanta's ridiculously easy schedule, and it's no wonder the Falcons rank 19th in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric (read more here) despite a 6-3 record.

(Sports Illustrated)

---------

MHS ANALYSIS, so take if for what its worth, but I just lay out the facts

Atlanta is also last in the NFL with 10 sacks on the season, according to NFL network.  Now, if you think about it, they are probably the biggest threat to the Panthers playoff situation because they have the opportunity to beat the Panthers twice in addition to a very easy schedule.

Why would I say that with Minnesota and Arizona both sitting there with 2 losses?  Answer: Schedule,  However, The Cards and Falcons play Minnesota, so there is a chance they eliminate one another.  Note: I am not counting Green Bay and Seattle, 2 teams who could run the table, because the Panthers have a 3-game lead and win the head-to-head. 

Arizona:  vs. Cincinnati, @ SF, @ StL vs. Minnesota, @ Philly, vs. Green Bay, vs. Seattle (That is a tough schedule--going 5-2 would be admirable--If they do, they finish the season at 12-4)

Minnesota:  vs. Green Bay, @ Atlanta, vs. Seattle, @ Arizona, vs. Chicago, vs. NY Giants, @ Green Bay (2 games vs. Aaron Rogers and one vs. the Cards, not to mention the upstart Bears, Giants, the 6-3 Falcons and the always dangerous Seahawks--I see 4-3 down the stretch as the best case scenario, with losses to Arizona, Green Bay and one other team-the Vikings finish the season at 11-5)

Atlanta: vs, Indy (loss? I am not sure they beat the Luckless Colts) , vs. Minnesota (loss), @ Tampa Bay (possibly a loss)) @ Carolina (loss), @ Jax, vs. Carolina, vs. New Orleans.  (Best case scenario for the Falcons is 4-3 moving forward, with potential wins vs. Indy, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and New Orleans) Expect them to finish no better than 10-6, which may get them in the playoffs as a wildcard).

Panthers:  vs. Washington, @ Dallas, @ New Orleans, vs. Atlanta, @ NY Giants, @ Atlanta.. vs. Tampa Bay.  (By the estimations above, the Panthers would have to lose 4 of the final 7 games to lose the grip on the #1 seed.  The schedule is deceptively difficult, with road games in Dallas vs. Romo and the head cases Bryant and Hardy, New Orleans, Atlanta, New York-the Giants are playing well of late--there are potentially 4 losses in the deck.  Remember, we needed a late Norman pick vs. New Orleans to win the game and OT vs. Indy-both home games--so anything is possible.

About the Washington game Sunday: That is what makes the Washington game so important.  A home game against a mediocre team should be a win.  With four of the last six on the road, we need this win.  That way, we can split the rest and still have the #1 seed.  If the Redskins win, it could make things much more difficult.  Funny, but the laughable NFC East teams left on our schedule scare me more than the NFC South teams.  Washington is the weakest team of the 3, and we have them at home.  We really need 10-0.

I am not fixated on an undefeated schedule.  I see 14-2.  Fine with me. 

 

 

[Dex]

Lol Falcons. Someone post that poo on their forum.

[Marguide]

Every game is critical until we wrap up the #1 seed.

[*FreeFua*]

37 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

About the Washington game Sunday: That is what makes the Washington game so important.  A home game against a mediocre team should be a win.  With four of the last six on the road, we need this win.  That way, we can split the rest and still have the #1 seed.  If the Redskins win, it could make things much more difficult.  Funny, but the laughable NFC East teams left on our schedule scare me more than the NFC South teams.  Washington is the weakest team of the 3, and we have them at home.  We really need 10-0.

I am not fixated on an undefeated schedule.  I see 14-2.  Fine with me. 

 

 

Couldn't agree more. 

With Dallas coming up on a short week with some injuries starting to pop up (Brown and Tillman) I'm not overly confident with that one. I wouldn't be surprised to see everyone who is out Sunday to still be out Thursday as well. This team has come out too well for them to give back the home field in a span of 4 days. 

With Atlanta's upcoming schedule it'd sure be nice to be able to stick the nail in that division coffin week 13 and set eyes on home field weeks 14-17

[cardiackat88.]

Teddy "Two Gloves" and his was ass schedule.

[ThPantherFan]

1 hour ago, Marguide said:

Every game is critical until we wrap up the #1 seed.

Can't argue with that.

[Thorrez]

As long as Norman is healthy we will have no problem with atlanta as he eliminates julio. But yes, two more losses seems a good estimate. 

[Pantherxtreme]

Talk about luck. Has anyone else noticed the amount of insane injuries teams have been having the week prior to playing the Falcons.

Tony Romo gets injured in the Eagles game the week before facing the Falcons.

Mariota gets injured the Miami game the week prior to facing the Falcons.

Vincent Jackson gets injured against the Redskins the week before Tampa plays the Falcons.

Not a injury but Kaepernick gets benched for Blane Gabbert the week the 49ers face the Falcons.

And then just as Andrew Luck and the Colts look like they are getting it together after defeating the then undefeated Broncos, Luck gets injured before facing the Falcons.

And yet they are still on a 3 game losing streak, in my opinion Atlanta's schedule will be more difficult down the stretch than earlier in the season, I think they get exposed as the overrated squad that they are.
 

 

[ladypanther]

Great post.

[tiger7_88]

Ahhhhhh.... the times when the Falcunts were in the Top 3 of most of the national media's Power Polls.

Those were the days, eh Dainty Birds?

[L-TownCat]

OP if you and @KB_fan could creat a thread together you might break the Huddle for totally awesome insight.

[w280sax]

In a perfect nfl, we win, the pack beat the vikes, the Bengals beat the cards, and the Colts beat the falcons.

 

4 game division lead and 3 game conference lead if that happens.  Weird to want the pack to win this week.