What Explains The Carolina Panthers’ Rise?

[SgtJoo]

 

The Panthers have improved their rating by 116 Elo points (the equivalent of 4.6 points of per-game scoring margin) since the start of the season, and, according to our simulations, they’re on track to win 4.6 more games than was projected before the year. That’s an unusually big jump. But the manner in which Carolina has improved is also unconventional. While the typical big first-half Elo gainer1 does it with a significantly improved passing game, the Panthers’ aerial attack is virtually the same as it was last season — league average, basically, in the eyes of expected points added (EPA).2

Although quarterback Cam Newton gets the headlines for the Panthers’ offense, which has improved its overall EPA by about half a standard deviation since last year, almost all of the change is owed to a more efficient rushing game. (Newton himself is on pace for about the same production in the rushing game as last season.) Of all the teams who improved their Elo as much as the Panthers have, only about 14 percent did so with a passing attack that, like Carolina’s, didn’t improve relative to the league. Generally speaking, to win more games in the NFL, you need to throw the ball more effectively.

That is, unless you improve your pass defense — which is exactly what the Panthers have done this year. Using the EPA grades I introduced last week, which rate teams on a scale in which 100 is average and one standard deviation is 15 points, only four defenses have improved more against the pass than Carolina’s has this season:

 

 

TLDR: Improved pass defense

(Also we weren't as bad as people thought we were last year)

[Catweisers]

This is not only this year but it started with 4 games left in last season!  The reason was we finally found our O-line.      Those guys made this run possible.  Remmers came in, Tre took hold, and Line and team got better.   We went 4 and 0 down the stretch, then our 8-0 this season its been a while since we lost in regular season. 12-0.  They made this possible and a lot of other folks too!! 

[CPantherKing]

The Panthers unrelenting defense and a healthy Cam Newton are the reason for the rise. Coaches allowing Cam, Davis, and Luke to have full on field leadership of their units to make calls.

Star, Luke, Davis, Peanut, Harper, and Norman are all on the same page and adjusting the defense as if they all share the same mind. This defense knows where to be and refuses to let up as long as the coaches do not shut them down. This defense is on a mission, and has fully bought into the Keep Pounding mantra.

Meanwhile, Cam can carry the offense with his play making ability, and he has the defense to allow him to play his game. Surround Cam with top talent, and this team will physically dominate like no other team in the NFL.

[Newtcase]

I'll add confidence and experience as immeasurable improvements.  You can't quantify the mental strength of this team and what winning a playoff game and competing against the Hawks in the divisional round last year added.  Beating Seattle this year just fueled that even further and was a huge boost to this team.  Believing you can win is contagious.  

[KB_fan]

29 minutes ago, Newtcase said:

I'll add confidence and experience as immeasurable improvements.  ...  Beating Seattle this year just fueled that even further and was a huge boost to this team.  Believing you can win is contagious.  

YES!  THIS!

[VerticalThreat]

1) Patience. If you fire RR when it looked like he should have been, we're probably still trying to find the right coach.

2) Franchise QB. Sure, we had this one since 2011, but even as he has said, he's nothing like anything we've seen before. He had some growing to do and we had to figure out how to utilize his skill set. We're seeing those two things come together right in front of our eyes.

3) Building through the draft. Adding solid young players (or even decent players who can be life long special teamers) helps tremendously. Obviously you want to draft pro-bowlers, but as long as your picks aren't wasted on guys who simply aren't NFL talent you'll be ok. Misses will happen (Kugbila), but limiting those has been key.

Obviously you need players to make plays and pass rush and catch the ball (duh.) but as a franchise, what's happened has been a direct result of a focus on being patient and understanding that "it's a process" (remind you of anyone?).