Drops

[AviationMX]

so being a rushing team doesn't count, face it, we're running team that wins...

[TheRed]

On 11/4/2015, 6:18:44, JakeR6 said:

Newton: 54% Cmp, 7% drop

Ryan: 67% Cmp, 6.5% drop

Brady: 69% Cmp, 5.2% drop

 

Cam would barely be at 60% if Carolina had ZERO drops total. He's just not an accurate passer. And he throws the ball way too damn hard. One of his picks was of a pass Funchess tipped up and everyone was mad at Funchess. But it was Cam's fault. He was 7 Yd downfield standing wide open and Cam threw the damn ball as hard as he could. He has no touch on anything except his deep ball. The huddle makes fun of ESPN for making any excuse possible to defend Luck, but y'all do the exact same thing when it comes to Cam. He has flaws like any other QB. 

I'm assuming you have a source for these numbers?

In a chart above, Ted Ginn Jr. has a 14.9% drop rate just by himself. Your numbers aren't lining up.

[Davidson Deac II]

18 minutes ago, TheRed said:

I'm assuming you have a source for these numbers?

In a chart above, Ted Ginn Jr. has a 14.9% drop rate just by himself. Your numbers aren't lining up.

Cam right now has 216 attempts and 117 completions for a percentage of 54.2

According to the chart above, there have been 14 drops.  Assuming that # is correct, if every single drop had instead been a reception, he would be at 60.6.  Of course, not even the best receiving corps catch them all, so if he had a average receiving corps, his numbers would be somewhere between 54 and 60.  Still not that high for today's qb's,  But then we have to look at the style of offense we play as well.  It seems to me that Cam throws more deep balls than most qb's, so it might be natural that he has a slightly lower completion percentage. 

 

Of course, another aspect of this is that a few of his int's have been caused by receivers as well.  So his interception numbers might be a little lower with a better group of receivers.  

 

However, It does seem to be true that Cam's accuracy is not as good as some of the other qb's in the league.  But as I said before, it gets better as the game goes along.  And that is good enough. 

[KB_fan]

18 minutes ago, TheRed said:

I'm assuming you have a source for these numbers?

In a chart above, Ted Ginn Jr. has a 14.9% drop rate just by himself. Your numbers aren't lining up.

Look at the bottom line of the 2015 table.  All together a 6.5% drop rate, and a 54.7% completion rate, so the 2015 numbers match.

[TheRed]

39 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

Look at the bottom line of the 2015 table.  All together a 6.5% drop rate, and a 54.7% completion rate, so the 2015 numbers match.

Gotcha. Missed that. Thanks.

Seems like Funchess has more than 2 drops, I think they are being kind with that number.

[TheRed]

49 minutes ago, Davidson Deac II said:

Cam right now has 216 attempts and 117 completions for a percentage of 54.2

According to the chart above, there have been 14 drops.  Assuming that # is correct, if every single drop had instead been a reception, he would be at 60.6.  Of course, not even the best receiving corps catch them all, so if he had a average receiving corps, his numbers would be somewhere between 54 and 60.  Still not that high for today's qb's,  But then we have to look at the style of offense we play as well.  It seems to me that Cam throws more deep balls than most qb's, so it might be natural that he has a slightly lower completion percentage. 

 

Of course, another aspect of this is that a few of his int's have been caused by receivers as well.  So his interception numbers might be a little lower with a better group of receivers.  

 

However, It does seem to be true that Cam's accuracy is not as good as some of the other qb's in the league.  But as I said before, it gets better as the game goes along.  And that is good enough. 

Solid points.

Newton himself has already stated he needs to improve his completion percentage. Didn't work out this year so far with circumstances obviously. But you also have to look at the complete picture, and how much of a different dynamic he brings to our offense as a whole.

In comparison to other pocket QB's completion percentages like in the post I quoted. I would be curious to see the affect that routinely running for crucial first downs several times a game, and generally accounting for a substantial portion of thier offenses run game would have on their percentages. That's the difference.

[Darth Biscuit]

14 drops?  How sure are we on that number... seems more like 114.

[CoastalCat]

On 11/4/2015, 12:58:04, VerticalThreat said:

Saw that too this morning. Would like some comparable numbers to give context. Yeah, those numbers sound bad (and probably are) but would like to know the #s of another #1 and then a similar player to Ted or another rookie to compare to Funch. Food for thought.  

I don't even know where to find "drop" stats. You can't just compare targets to catches. Anyone know an accurate source? PFF?

[KB_fan]

Drops are obviously not a stat NFL officially tracks, so it's hard to get accurate data.  There's the question of was it a catchable pass?  

Sporting Charts attempts to track drops, and that's the data I posted above.

PFF also tracks drops, but it's part of their premium stats and I have no direct access to the data, but it seems like it's quite different than the Sporting Charts data.

I was just reading the excellent analysis from a 49ers site at SBNation, comapring Cam & Kapernick, which is the subject of a separate thread in the forum.  Interestingly enough, the writer goes into some detail on the Panthers' receivers and their drops.

Here's the data and commentary included in that article:

http://www.ninersnation.com/2015/11/6/9678158/colin-kaepernick-and-cam-newton-arent-even-remotely-the-same-player

According to Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus, Ginn has dropped 23 percent of the catchable passes thrown his direction, which is awful, but not even close to the worst rate on his own team. Funchess has dropped 46 percent of catchable balls. Forty-six percent!

Many of these drops are happening in critical situations, and others are even deflecting into the hands of a defender for interceptions.  [...]

Tally them all up, and 9.3 percent of Newton’s targeted passes have been dropped by the Panthers lousy receivers, which works out to about one in every 11 throws. That’s more than double the rate at which Kaepernick’s passes are dropped (4.1 percent), which adds significant context to the misleading completion percentage numbers being tossed around in Twitter infographics.

Player	Comp%	Drop%	Accuracy%	aDOT
C. Kaepernick	59.3	4.1	68.4	7.6
C. Newton	54.2	9.3	71.0	11.2

Newton is on target with a higher percentage of his throws, and with an average depth of target that’s nearly four yards further downfield than Kaepernick’s, he’s doing it on more difficult throws. And that’s really the other thing that stands out when watching film on these two quarterbacks: Cam makes high-level throws — i.e., throws with anticipation and into tight windows — far more consistently than Kaepernick does at this point.

[CoastalCat]

24 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

Drops are obviously not a stat NFL officially tracks, so it's hard to get accurate data.  There's the question of was it a catchable pass?  

Sporting Charts attempts to track drops, and that's the data I posted above.

I like Sporting Charts from what I'm seeing, but would have to check the film for accuracy. They only have 2 drops (and 7 catches) for Funch on 21 targets. So they're saying that 12 of his targets weren't catchable. Not sure I buy that.

[KB_fan]

Just now, CoastalCat said:

I like Sporting Charts from what I'm seeing, but would have to check the film for accuracy. They only have 2 drops (and 7 catches) for Funch on 21 targets. So they're saying that 12 of his targets weren't catchable. Not sure I buy that.

Agree it seems a low, and PFF has him with an astronomical drop rate.

http://www.catscratchreader.com/authors/crawford-rundlett

So clearly there's a big difference in how PFF & Sporting Charts classify drops,  I really wish PFF still allowed premium stats subscriptions.

[KB_fan]

Just for the heck of it, I Googled "Funchess drops."  I didn't dig too deep, and only looked at articles from the last month.

Right away found two Observer articles mentioning Funchess drops against Seattle (3) and Eagles (1 - but that may have been the interception and not a "drop"?)

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article40759596.html

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article41481555.html

[CoastalCat]

10 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

Just for the heck of it, I Googled "Funchess drops."  I didn't dig too deep, and only looked at articles from the last month.

Right away found two Observer articles mentioning Funchess drops against Seattle (3) and Eagles (1 - but that may have been the interception and not a "drop"?)

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article40759596.html

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article41481555.html

That's still 3 drops to Sports Charts' 2. Wish I had NFL Rewind.

[KB_fan]

34 minutes ago, CoastalCat said:

That's still 3 drops to Sports Charts' 2. Wish I had NFL Rewind.

I wasn't thinking it was 3 total - but 3 alone in JUST the Seattle game, meaning Sporting Charts drop numbers seem really low.

I have GamePass.  Maybe if I have time Sunday a.m. while waiting for the game I can go back and look at some of the Funchess plays.