Week 2 vs Houston: Game at a Glance

[KB_fan]

I've completed my review of all the drives in the Houston game and completed my Game at a Glance tables.  Let me first post the side by side drive charts.  Below I will post the charts separately for each team, and then make a few observations.

 

[KB_fan]

Here's the table for the Panthers:

[KB_fan]

Here's the table for Houston:

[KB_fan]

Now for a few observations:

1) In many ways, this game, like the game against JAX was a "tale of two halves".  We did a very good job limiting Houston's scoring opportunities in the 1st half, forcing them to punt on 6 of 8 drives, and also forcing a turnover on downs on one drive.  Their other drive was their lone score in the 1st half:  a field goal. 

2) Houston had NO true "big plays" (runs of 10 yards+, passes of 25 yards +) in the 1st half.  They only got into Carolina territory twice in the first half, and into what I define as scoring territory (inside the Carolina 40) once in the 1st half.  However, they did capitalize on that one opportunity, scoring a field goal.

3) You have to appreciate how HUGE our kicking game was in this game (blocked field goal aside).  NOT ONCE in the entire game (14 drives) did Houston start a drive within their own territory.  This is made even MORE impressive when you look at where many of the Carolina drives ENDED.  A combination of our offensive sluggishness at times, combined with Houston's defensive pressure meant that 6 of our 14 drives ended DEEP in our own territory (within our 25).  Brad Nortmann's punting to flip the field in these situations was crucial, combined with pretty good effectiveness on limiting Houston's punt returns.

4) Houston obviously made a few adjustments during halftime and they moved the ball more effectively in the 2nd half. (215 Net yards vs. 126 net yards in the 1st half).  They capitalized on their only 2 true "big plays" of the game, getting into Carolina's Red Zone on both occasions, and scoring touchdowns both times, though neither TD itself was a "big play".   Excellent job by Houston on capitalizing on their very few opportunities.

5) The only scoring opportunity Houston did NOT capitalize on was their final drive of the game.  This was the scoring opportunity "handed to them" by Carolina penalties, with 2 penalties on 3rd down resulting in 1st downs allowing Houston to keep the drive alive.

[KB_fan]

Now for observations on Carolina's side of the ball:

1) Yes, we started out slow with two 3&outs.  We got our first 2 "big plays" with runs of 11 and 10 yards in drives 3 and 4, with Carolina at least being able to get into Houston territory on drive 4.  (We had only 20 yards of offense in the 1st quarter)

2) Once we broke into Houston territory for the first time, the momentum of the game began to turn.  We gained 190 yards in the 2nd quarter.  We got deep into Houston territory and had scoring opportunities on each of the next 3 drives (5, 6, 7).  We scored on drives 5 (TD) and 6 (FG), and were close to scoring on drive 7, but Norwood couldn't quite hold on to Cam's tipped pass, resulting in an interception from within the red zone. 

3) Drive 5 was especially sweet.  Runs by Newton & Tolbert moved the chains, as did a short pass to Olsen before the beautiful 25 yard TD pass to Ginn.  The team was really in sync here.  Best drive of the game.

4) Drives 6 and 7 had no true big plays.  Instead we got deep into Houston territory with helpful returns by Ginn, short - medium passes and a few short runs.  It's actually quite good to see Carolina moving the ball even with a series of short plays, not relying on a big gashing run or deep pass.  Cam is definitely improving in the short passing game I think. 

In any case, the 4 consecutive drives into Houston territory in the 1st half were good, putting on some pressure.  We obviously could have taken a larger lead into halftime if Norwood could have pulled in that pass.

5) The second half, I'm most impressed with how we took advantage of opportunities, and how we didn't let Houston take over the game.  To come back and match Houston's 2nd half-opening 80 yard TD drive with one of our own was VERY impressive.  Two "big plays" - runs by Newton & Stewart - as well as a short 10 yard pass to Olsen were keys to moving the chains.  The TD was, of course, Cam's sensational 2 yard flip into the end zone.

6) Neither team did much on their next two drives.  In particular, both of Carolina's drives following the 3rd Qtr TD were thwarted DEEP in our own territory.  We did an amazing job to prevent any turn overs and to get great punts and good return coverage that kept Houston from capitalizing.

7) By contrast, we forced a Houston turnover deep in their own territory with AJ Klein's great interception, and immediately capitalized with the beautiful long pass to Philly Brown for the TD.  Great way to take advantage of the big play and scoring opportunity set up by our D.

8) But just as Carolina matched Houston's initial 2nd half TD with one of our own, Houston to their credit, turned right around for an 80 yard TD drive, with a huge 48 yard pass which set up the score.  A single big play (Carolina's Interception or the 48 yard pass by Mallett) can set up a score. 

9) Both teams fought hard on their final drives, especially impressive considering the heat and the duration of the game.  Carolina had a very nice drive 14 set up by a 33 yard return by Fozzy (Yay Fozzy!) and a long 27 yard pass to Olsen mixed with short runs by Stewart & Tolbert.  The FG would have put the game away, but was blocked.   Houston's final drive was mostly a gift from Carolina, with two "free" first downs on penalties after they had failed to convert on 3rd down. 

11)  Overall, it was a tenacious, hard fought,  good game.   Carolina had considerably more "big plays" and more scoring opportunities throughout the game.  We came away with points on 4 of our 6 scoring opportunities, including 3 TDs.  That's quite good for our offense.  Some mistakes at the end kept it too close.  We could have put it out of reach. But we also avoided any costly mistakes on the many drives we were stopped deep in our own territory (especially in the first half), being stingy on all but the final drive in terms of giving Houston any unearned scoring opportunities.  Houston got into scoring range 4 times, scoring on 3 of those drives.  Dangerous!  And it makes me realize even more just how close a call was that final drive drama when we gifted a scoring opportunity but then shut it down.  We got the stop when we needed it most.

However, overall we definitely outplayed Houston on both Offense & Defense and deserved this win.  I appreciate it even more after looking at the drive analysis.  Big plays running & passing.  Key interception.  Important ST contributions.  Keeping Houston from big plays and limiting their scoring opportunities.  Very truly a team win.

[KB_fan]

I'm nearly done with my full comprehensive "gamebook data" spreadsheet for weeks 1 and 2.  I'll look to post the link to the spreadsheet,  several tables, and some comments tomorrow evening.

In the meantime, I hope you all find these game at a glance tables helpful.  I find that doing them really helps me see patterns that might not have been otherwise evident.  Last week it was the realization that we kept JAX out of CAR territory the entire 2nd half.  This week what most struck me was how many drives we were stopped inside our own 25 yard line which could have been disastrous if we'd allowed a turnover, or had our special teams not done a very nice job with punts & coverage to flip the field.  It's quite suprising when you see all those drives ending inside our own 25 that Houston NEVER began a drive in Carolina territory.   Field position really mattered in this game.

[ColumbusCounty]

I can remember saying "wow" on atleast 3 Nortman punts. 

Nice analysis

[KB_fan]

For the record, I just went back and looked at last week's "Game at a Glance" table that I did.  Last week we had none of our drives stopped inside our own 25.  Our worst ending field position prior to a punt was one drive when we were stopped on our own 29.

This week we had 6 drives (of 14 total or 44%) stopped inside our own 25.  WOW.  Yet Houston did not capitalize on any of those stuffs thanks primarily to Brad Nortmann.

We stopped Houston twice inside their own 25.  We didn't capitalize on either of the Houston stops, though we came close on 1 drive, starting at the 50 and getting into scoring territory prior to the interception on Cam's throw to Norwood.

For the record, last week we stopped JAX 3 times inside their own 25, scoring once  We also stopped JAX 2 other times inside their 30, scoring once (the J-NO interception)

[Marguide]

Really nice work KB. Thanks much!

[ItsPantone278]

Thanks @KB_fan.  Appreciate the work as always.

[Mr Mojo Risin]

Thanks KB fan appreciate all of your effort. It truly looks like we could have a pro bowl punter if he keeps these performances up.

[RoaringRiot]

This really is good stuff - well done 

[KB_fan]

I've now posted the Excel spreadsheet with all the gamebook data for games 1 & 2 for anyone who wants to download it.  You'll find it here:

 

For now, it's just the spreadsheet with a brief word of explanation about what it is.  I've not yet posted any commentary about or excerpts of the data comparing weeks 1 and week 2.

 

[SOJA]

great thread KBfan