Win over Jags Week 1: Statistics & Analysis

[KB_fan]

I'm working on completing my Week 1 Gamebook Data spreadsheet.  Here's an interesting set of stats on all of the Panthers' Drives:

I created a stat for scoring efficiency when starting in opponents' territory [field position efficiency], and for when Panthers started a drive following a turnover [turnover scoring efficiency].  Obviously this turnover scoring does NOT include a pick six, since an interception returned for a TD by the defense does not involve a Panthers' offensive drive following the interception.  [Out of all 3 turnovers by the Jags, we scored on 1 of 3 (Norman's Pick 6), but failed to convert two more into points.]

We had 2 drives following JAX turnovers, 1 of which began in JAX territory.  We had 2 other drives begin in JAX territory (1 following a long Ginn Punt return, 1 when JAX turned it over on downs right at the end of the game). 

That makes a total of 4 "special opportunity possessions."  We scored on none.  Those drives ended with 2 missed FGs, an interception, and the clock running out at the end of the game.  That final possession should hardly count as there were only 6 seconds on the clock when Panthers got the ball.  But even discounting that last possession, we failed to convert 3 good opportunities into points.  Definitely something I'll be keeping an eye on.

More stats and analysis later tonight...

 

[KB_fan]

Here's our Drive Chart from the Gamebook in case it's helpful to look at in conjunction with the data I've posted above:

[KB_fan]

Red Zone Scoring Efficiency doesn't show up in the table I posted above.  I have that figure in a separate section of my spreadsheet.

It's interesting we and the Jags were identical (equally bad!) in both red-zone scoring and goal-to-go scoring:

Red Zone Attempts	3
Red Zone Attempts Made	1
Red Zone Efficiency	33%
Opponent Red Zone Attempts	3
Oppenent Red Zone Made	1
Opponent Red Zone Efficiency	33%
Goal to Go Attempts	2
Goal to Go Made	1
Goal to Go Efficiency	50%
Opponent Goal to Go Attempts	2
Opponent Goal to Go Made	1
Opponent Goal to Go Efficiency	50%

[pepaw]

Can someone post PFF grades or is that against rules?

 

[KB_fan]

Can someone post PFF grades or is that against rules?

 

I second that request, if it is allowed.   If they can't be posted in full, maybe at least notable high & low grades could be posted, or grades for our starters?

[KB_fan]

Here's another section of my Gamebook Data spreadsheet.  This one focused on Defense & Special teams and summing up the individual stats on Sacks, QB Hurries, Tackle For Loss, Passes Defended, Forced Fumbles, Kick Blocks, etc.

The top section are all the pressures & forced turnovers created by the Panthers D & ST.  High numbers are GOOD.   The bottom section are the matching figures for the JAGS D & ST.  There you want to see lower numbers. 

As you can see, the differential favors the Panthers.  We led in every stat category except for blocked kicks.

[KB_fan]

For each of the tables I post, I'd welcome comments as to how helpful you find the data, and any questions you may have.

One thing it may be helpful to clarify.  For all the GameBook data I'm posting here, the data is posted in a vertical single column format rather than a two column format (i.e. it does not compare the Panthers & Jags stats side by side) for a reason.  First of all, the side-by-side presentation of the data for both teams already exists online in each game's box score.

My intention in this table is not so much to compare the Panthers D with the Jags D etc. etc., but to allow comparison of ALL the STATS for all the games week by week, permitting a way of getting a feel for the evolution of the Panthers season over time.  Improving?  In what areas?  Declining?  In what areas?  etc.  How do the challenges of a given game compare to the challenges we faced in a subsequent week? etc.

To do that, the single column seems to work better for me.

[KB_fan]

OK, here now another table.  This one actually is from the beginning of the spreadsheet.  Apologies that I posted some of the other tables our of order, I just thought some of the information I've already posted was quite notable, so I posted it first.

Using the scoring summary at the beginning of each gamebook, I found it useful to break out the data into:

• Points for / against in the 1st quarter (did we start slow?) and 4th quarter (did we have a big 2nd half comeback?).  For the Jags game that data is not as important.  We scored points in all 4 quarters.

• Points for and against by half.  (For the Jags game this is significant.  We shut out the Jags in the 2nd half), and the point differential in each half.

• Also noted in this section:  Panthers greatest lead, Panthers largest deficit (in this case 0, we never were behind the Jags, although we were tied with them), and when the winning team scored the go ahead points. 

[Oops, I note a typo.  The final line in pale yellow above should read "Opponents % of Total Scored in 2nd Half."  I've corrected my spreadsheet, which I'll be posting the link to soon.]

The 2nd half shut out with Luke out of the game, and with a few of our veterans who were coming off injury (e.g.Kalil and CJ) staying on the field longer than planned and having to tough it out, is extremely encouraging.  I haven't seen too many Panthers game since I started paying attention in 2012 where we took the lead before halftime and never look back.  I'm sure I'm forgetting a bunch, but far too often we're the "cardiac cats" and allow other teams back into the game.  We didn't this time.  Excellent to see.

[KB_fan]

The next section of my spreadsheet continues to focus on scoring, particularly the question of scoring field goals vs. touchdowns.  And are the touchdowns scored by the offense, the defense, or special teams?

This section of the spreadsheet is pretty simple.  The percentage I'll be interesting in tracking as the season goes on, and for which I might also like to do some comparative research, relates to offensive and defensive TDs as % of total scoring plays.

Logic would suggest that teams that win championships need to be effective at scoring touchdowns (something we know the Panthers struggle with too often - e.g. their poor red zone percentage in recent years). 

We also hear that defense wins championships.  Does maintaining a certain percentage of scores by defensive touchdowns allow one to predict a winning team? 

So far, our offense and defense are equal in scoring touchdowns.  I'll be interested in seeing how these figures evolve over the season and how they correlate to wins.

[PandaPancake]

With my angle it was tough to tell but there were a couple plays they called #79 an eligible receiver. What were they trying to do?

[maddog1945]

Really liked Addison play.

Stood out above others!!

 

[KB_fan]

OK, a few more sections of my gamebook spreadsheet table.  Here's data on rushing, especially focused on "Big Plays" (10+ yards / rush)

And here's the Big Play data for Passing:

JAX had several more big plays on rushing than the Panthers, but could not convert several of their opportunities into points.  I'll have more about "big plays" in a separate comment.   Both teams were pretty anemic in passing, only completing 1 long pass (25+ yards), though both teams had some other nice medium range passes (15 - 24 yards) that opened up drives for them.

[KB_fan]

The free PFF grades highlighting the top 5 players on each team are now posted for the CAR v JAX game:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/09/14/car-jax-grades-panthers-josh-norman-top-cb-in-week-1/

Carolina Panthers

– CB Josh Norman had his highest overall grade of his career, leading all cornerbacks in week one with a +4.3 grade. He also led all cornerbacks with a +3.7 coverage grade this week. Norman was thrown at nine times and allowed just three completions for 15 yards, and he made the play of the game when he returned an interception for a touchdown.

– OLB Thomas Davis tied Seattle’s Bruce Irvin for the highest overall grade among 4-3 OLBs in Week 1 with a +3.3. Davis was effective both against the run (+1.9 run defense grade, 15.8 stop percentage) and the pass (+1.3 coverage grade), giving up two catches on three targets for 8 yards. He also defensed one pass and recorded a sack.

– RT Mike Remmers (+2.5) rebounded from a disastrous performance in last year’s divisional playoff game (-7.9 overall grade in that matchup), posting the third highest grade among right tackles. He was especially effective as a run blocker (+1.4) and only allowed one pressure.

Top performers:

CB Josh Norman (+4.3)
WLB Thomas Davis (+3.3)
MLB Luke Kuechly (+2.5)
RT Mike Remmers (+2.5)
TE Ed Dickson (+1.8)

[KB_fan]

I was too tired last night to finish posting more of the data from my week 1 gamebook data spreadsheet, but there is at least one more thing I had wanted to post in terms of "big plays."  In his preview of the Panthers v Jags game, @UpstatePanther mentioned a stat related to "Toxic Differential", something I was unfamiliar with.  I did a little research on it, and it intrigued me.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/dictionary/nfl/toxic-differential/

What is Toxic Differential?

A statistic used in football that combines turnover differential and big play differential to give insight into how teams balance risk and reward in generating and avoiding giving up big plays (plays over 25+ yards) and winning the turnover battle. This term was coined by former NFL head coach Brian Billick.

Toxic Differential = (Big Plays For - Big Plays Against) + (Takeaways - Giveaways)

The idea behind this statistic is that teams who generate big plays win games but more importantly they need to win the battle of these plays by generating more than giving them up, which is similar to the idea behind the turnover battle. By combining the two statistics, toxic differential gives a clue as to how often a team is able to make big plays without giving up the ball and how well their defense is at preventing big plays and generating turnovers. The key insight suggested by Brian Billick is that this statistic gives an indication into how the team balances the risks and rewards of attempting and preventing big plays.

Toxic Differential Stats for each NFL Season Since 1990

I decided that it would be fun to try and track this for the Panthers this season.  Obviously SportingCharts calculates it the stat, but I wanted to look at it a little more closely and see how big plays are or are not linked to scoring in Panthers' games.

So, reviewing the drive by drive data in the gamebook, I was able to create a fairly simple table that gives a bit of a quick graphic representation of big plays per drive and the scoring outcome.  I'll post it below.  See what you think.  I'd love comments and feedback.