Panthers - Jags Preview and Analysis

[KB_fan]

Some of the things that struck me as I prepared these tables included the very obvious fact that Jacksonville is a team being rebuilt.

A full third of the Jacksonville team is NEW:  7 of their starters slated to play on Sunday (i.e. not counting those out with injuries, but counting their replacements instead) have never played with Jacksonville before.  This includes 1 rookie and 6 free agents signed for 2015.   Another 8 starters have 1 season with Jacksonville - 6 of whom were rookies last year, and so are in their second season in the NFL.  That is an INCREDIBLE 15 players (71% of the team's starters!) with only 0 - 1 year of experience with the team.

By contrast for Carolina we have 4 new free agents starting (including Kyle Love who will replace Star) and 1 rookie.  Note I did NOT count Ted Ginn as a new free agent since he played for Carolina in 2013.  We have a pretty high number of 1st year players with Carolina as well - 7 starters with 1 year of experience on the team, 4 of whom were rookies last year, 3 of whom are veteran free agents.  So for Carolina the total is 12 players with 0 - 1 year of time with the team (57% - still a pretty high figure, but not nearly as eye-popping as Jacksonville's %).

Jacksonville is also in worse shape with injuries than we are, with 3 of their starters slated to sit out (2 of whom are among their best players), while Carolina only has Star sitting out that we know of (also one of our best players).  The replacements for all 3 JAX players are rated "below average" by PFF, but so too is Kyle Love, our replacement for Star.  Of course, as we've seen with Love, he's played well in preseason, so those ratings from last year may not reflect current play.  But for Jacksonville, their already low average rankings for their starters got lower because of the players not starting.  For Carolina, the difference was tiny.

Jacksonville starters on Offense are CONSIDERABLY YOUNGER and LESS EXPERIENCED than Carolina's offense.  For defense, the stats are pretty similar in terms of age & experience for both teams, but as noted above, Carolina has a BIG advantage in CONTINUITY, on both offense & defense, with our players on average having played together 1 - 1.5 years longer than their JAX counterparts.

Looking at the players position by position, there's not too much to be said, most of the conclusions are pretty obvious.  But a few notes:

On Offense:  Carolina looks to have the advantage at QB, RB, TE.  WRs and OLine rankings are pretty similar for both teams.  CAR has a tiny edge in WR, while JAX has a small edge in OLine rankings overall.  However JAX has less continuity of their OLine, with 2 new starters added this year in contrast to Carolina only adding 1 new starter, Michael Oher.

On Defense:  CAR has the advantage at DT.  Kony Ealy's "Poor" ranking by PFF means CAR & JAX average out to a matching ranking for DE.  For LBs, obviously it's no contest.  We rank better for CBs, while JAX has a small edge on Safeties.  Carolina's overall defensive ranking is a full point/category higher than Jacksonville's and our continuity is better on defense.

I know we've all heard the stories that Blake Bortles is playing so much better in the preseason, but in light of these comparisons, I really can't see much reason at all to favor Jacksonville.  Based on the quality of our starters, we SHOULD win this game quite easily.  The huge difference in continuity with Carolina's offense and defense having more time to jell and learn how to play together should be a significant advantage for Carolina.

 

 

 

[caatfan]

Interesting and informative charts. We clearly get more A's and B's than the Jags in these ratings, and some guys, IMO, are better than this grading shows. I think Oher and Ealy will play well, and Coleman has been a bright spot in the DB.

[KB_fan]

One last set of tables, and these in some ways are the clearest of all to show that we should have the edge on offense, defense and as a team.  I've summed up the numbers of players per team in each PFF category, and then also looked at the same for the offense and the defense.  Wow.  The quality of Carolina's starters in comparison with JAX is striking.

A full 50% of our starters (11 players) rank as good, very good or elite, compared with a total of only 3 JAX players (14%).  I'd remembered hearing that Jacksonville's defense was better than its offense, but a full 45% of their defensive starters rank below average, though those figures, as true for Carolina as well, are lowered by injuries.  Surprisingly for all our handwringing about offense, we only have 1 of our starters (Oher) or 9% ranked below average, vs. 4 players (36%) for JAX.

Now we just need to translate all this nice data in our favor into a VERY CONVINCING WIN on the field!

[Mr. Scot]

T'would appear that we have some young analytics enthusiasts on the Huddle now.

[KB_fan]

In case it makes for easier reading, or sharing, of the tables and comments I've posted here tonight, I've copied all the tables & analysis posted here into a blog entry:

 

[KB_fan]

T'would appear that we have some young analytics enthusiasts on the Huddle now.

I do a lot of data organization and analysis for my job, so my brain is kind of trained to think in these terms.  Also, creating spreadsheets, etc. helps me learn and remember important data.

But I would never claim that all football is statistics.  There are a lot of intangibles or things that are difficult to measure in terms of how players interact that lead to success or failure.  One player, one play can swing a game or a season far beyond what the "stats" would ever lead one to believe.

So, I enjoy looking at the stats, but know there's a lot more to following a team and understanding what makes it tick.

[Mr. Scot]

I do a lot of data organization and analysis for my job, so my brain is kind of trained to think in these terms.  Also, creating spreadsheets, etc. helps me learn and remember important data.

But I would never claim that all football is statistics.  There are a lot of intangibles or things that are difficult to measure in terms of how players interact that lead to success or failure.  One player, one play can swing a game or a season far beyond what the "stats" would ever lead one to believe.

So, I enjoy looking at the stats, but know there's a lot more to following a team and understanding what makes it tick.

You're a good poster.

[KB_fan]

UM.... WOW.... it's very late in my time zone and perhaps I'm misreading something, but I just took a look at the Infographic posted on Panthers.com as a game preview with CAR & JAX stats from 2014.

http://www.panthers.com/news/article-2/Infographic-Week-1-Preview-/cceef6ae-73a2-44c6-851e-2455a97b0dd7

It seems to me the stats are all wrong.  CAR should lead JAX in Yards, points per game etc. 

Where did these numbers come from?!?!?!?

Can someone else check the NFL.Com stats page and verify I'm not crazy for thinking there is something VERY wrong with this infographic?

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=TOTAL_POINTS_GAME_AVG&tabSeq=2&season=2014&role=TM&Submit=Go&archive=true&conference=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&qualified=false

[TheNewStandard]

Here is the position by position comparison for the OFFENSE of both teams:

KB...You're the freakin' man, dude. I'm serious. Really appreciative of what you bring to The Huddle and can't thank you enough for your info and knowledge you provide. We're very like-minded in many ways about the game of football and your analytical way of using stats to predict match-ups is second to none as far as I'm concerned. 

We're kindred Panther/football fans and I'm full of gratitude for your efforts, observations and optimism. Great stuff bro! If you don't get lots of positive reinforcement from the rest of the Huddle, I'm happy to oblige. 

I officially put you on a permanent 5-star respectability level on the Huddle with no need for any type of petition. 

Jam-on my brother! I got a free bar-tab in your honor if we ever run in to one another some day. God put some good stuff in that mind of yours and you should be gettin' paid for your time doing what you do. 

Thanks again and keep pounding!

[KB_fan]

Here's what I think the stats should be (rounded figures for yards...):

Stat                                  CAR            JAX

Yards per game                347             290

Passing Yards                   219            188

Rushing Yards                   127             102

Points per game                 21.2            15.6

I'm not on Facebook, so I can't log on to comment at Panthers.com to tell them about the errors.

[KB_fan]

Thanks for the kind words @TheNewStandard

It's nice to have been able to contribute to the discussion here.  I'm such a new Panthers fan (really only since mid-late 2012) that I can't bring a knowledge of Panthers history.  I'm also not a football expert in terms of understanding all the plays and strategies..., so stats analysis is one thing I can focus on, and enjoy.

I hope I haven't set up unrealistic expectations though.  I've had an unusual amount of downtime the past 6 weeks or so, thus my extensive posting as kind of a special "summer hobby," but my time for such intensive analysis is drawing to a close quickly.  My posting may get quite limited starting on Monday.  I've got two big reports and funding proposals to write in the next 5 weeks.

[KB_fan]

Lots of interesting statistics and history of matchups between CAR & JAX at BBR

http://blackandbluereview.com/pregame-stats-and-superlatives-panthers-jaguars/

[TheNewStandard]

If Carolina loses this game, heads are gonna roll and I'm gonna puke my guts out.

Dang man...glad you're working and hope you're getting paid good, but I'm gonna miss your contributions here...hopefully somebody else will step up. I would, but all I have access to right now is my cell phone and just don't have the resources to lay it out here. So my apologies to you and the rest of the Huddle. What say you Huddle?

Edited September 13, 2015 by TheNewStandard

[Pimpdaddy]

My analysis is: Just mop these btches!!!