[NOT SO] Silly Statistics: Low Preseason Sacks Allowed = Regular Season Wins

[KB_fan]

I've been intrigued by the extremely low level of sacks allowed by our offensive line this preseason.  The NFL stats page lists us as having given up 5 sacks.  (I swear they missed a sack in the New England game... the stats show 2 sacks, I remember 3.... but whatever).

It got me to thinking....

1) Do levels of preseason sacks allowed in any way correlate to sacks allowed in the regular season?  (Obviously something like an injury could totally mess with the statistics, as a key OLineman might be lost for much of the regular season, changing the sack situation...)

2) Is the level of sacks we allowed this year in the preseason abnormally low?  I've only been following the Panthers since mid-season 2012..., so I had no sense of what levels of sacks are "normal" for us in the preseason or regular season.

So, of course, being a stats geek, I did some research going back to 2008 (preseason stats don't seem to be available online prior to 2006).   And I found a really fun pattern...

Caution, it probably doesn't mean anything, but it's fun to look at: 

Our two best seasons in the past 10 years (2008 and 2013) were the years we allowed BY FAR the fewest sacks in the preseason.

See for yourselves:

In 2008 and 2013 we allowed dramatically fewer sacks in the preseason than typical for the Panthers - and we went on to 12 - 4 seasons.

In 2010 we allowed an absurdly high number and % of preseason sacks and went on to a 2 - 14 season.

2015 is our lowest level of sacks allowed (both in absolute levels and on a percentage basis) in the preseason for the Panthers since 2008 (perhaps EVER... I don't have the earlier figures yet).  So.... bank on it.... We're going to the Superbowl!! 

[And no, I don't take this particularly seriously.  That's why this thread is called SILLY STATISTICS....]  There's obviously little meaningful correlation between preseason sacks allowed and sacks allowed in the regular season. (See 2013 for evidence - few sacks in preseason, fairly high sack numbers and % in the regular season, and yet we managed to win...) 

But just maybe there's something real here.  Could the years with extremely low levels of sacks in the preseason tell us something about the intensity and competitiveness and the HUNGER TO WIN of our team in a given year?  I wonder...  We'll see how 2015 plays out.

 

[UpstatePanther]

i always appreciate your statistical analyses KB. keep up the good work.

[ecu88]

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[Ivan The Awesome]

Absolutely Awesome Analysis.

[ClawOn]

I know you called it silly,  but from a pure statistical standpoint albeit with a limited sample set there is a clear positive correlation between the two. Nice work. 

[Ricky Spanish]

Good stuff. Any idea if this is the same for other teams?

[iBBB]

Good stuff KB, I love me some statistical analysis :)

[KB_fan]

Hi all, thanks for the positive feedback.  As I've dug online to find older preseason & regular season data, things get even more interesting, and perhaps this really ISN'T so silly after all...   

First off, before I go any further:  We need to give a HUGE ROUND OF APPLAUSE to our 2015 OLine. 

Preseason sack data is only available online (that I can find) from 2001 onward.  But in the last 15 years, no Panthers squad has allowed fewer sacks (numbers or %) in the preseason than our 2015 O line!  Give it up for Remmers, Turner, Kalil, Norwell & Oher (and D. Williams and all the others who shared reps).  Well done men!  Keep it coming!  You're awesome!

Is it David Gettleman who has said things like "Defense wins championships" and "Big men allow you to compete"?

Well, maybe make that Defense + a great O Line = championships, because more and more it's looking like there is some kind of correlation between low levels of sacks allowed and strong winning seasons - at least for the Panthers, and our brand of football. (This seems like a no brainer, really...., but it's fun to see the data back it up.)  

Note: I've not yet looked at any data for other teams.

Here's the additional data I've found below.  As you'll see, there's not a perfect correlation between low sacks & wins (see the red dotted lines where there are anomalies), but the evidence looks pretty compelling that when our O Line is allowing 3% or fewer sacks (sacks as a % of total offensive plays), we are on track to win big. By contrast, most of the time, allowing sacks on 5% or greater of offensive plays is pretty much a recipe for a really bad season.

Our 2015 OLine has only allowed a level of 1.9% of sacks in the preseason.  Wow!

Also, generally, on average, the level of sacks in the regular season is about 3.5 times the level in the preseason.  If that held true for 2015, our OLine would be on track to allow only 18 sacks!  That would be utterly awesome.

 

[KB_fan]

Good stuff. Any idea if this is the same for other teams?

I've not yet had the chance to look at data for other teams, and I probably won't now have any time to do that for awhile.  But this has got my attention, so I'll try to do a bit of digging in the coming weeks.

[KB_fan]

Serious question.

@Jeremy Igo (or anyone else here who has media access to the Panthers)  do you have any way to get our congratulations to coach John Matsko and the OLine?  Obviously I've not yet found data from 1995 - 2000, but it really looks like this preseason squad may have allowed a record low number of sacks in the 21 seasons of Panthers history.

If anyone knows where to find additional preseason data for 1995 - 2000, please let me know.  It would be fun to fill in the table and verify if this is a record best for our OLine!

And to think how anxious we all were about the OLine at the start of the preseason!  Obviously no game that counts has been played yet, but wow, these data have me excited!

[ecu88]

@KB_fan

Is the % of plays are as a whole (run and pass combined) or passing plays only?

[JBloc]

I love this type of analysis. Thank you, KB!!!

[KB_fan]

@KB_fan

Is the % of plays are as a whole (run and pass combined) or passing plays only?

Total offensive plays.

I pulled the data from the NFL.com stats page.

For the total plays, the data come from "Scrm plays" column of the team stats / offense / game stats table.  Example here, for the 2014 preseason:

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=true&conference=null&role=TM&offensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&season=2014&seasonType=PRE&tabSeq=2&qualified=false&Submit=Go

For Sacks, the data come from the "sck" column of the team stats / offense / passing table.  Example here for 2014 preseason:

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=true&conference=null&role=TM&offensiveStatisticCategory=TEAM_PASSING&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&season=2014&seasonType=PRE&tabSeq=2&qualified=false&Submit=Go

These tables are sortable so, for instance if you click on the sacks column, you can instantly sort from lowest to highest, which is how I came up with the ranking figures for each year.

For 2001 - 2005, the preseason data doesn't exist in table format that I could find.  For those years, I could find Panthers data by skimming the box score data for each of the Panthers preseason games in those years and totaling up the offensive plays & the sacks allowed.

e.g. 2001 preseason week 1 game data is here:

http://www.nfl.com/schedules/2001/PRE1

I'm hoping I'll be able to find box score / gamebook data for 1995 - 2000 Panthers preseason games, but it just may not be available online that far back...

[ecu88]

Everyone just calm down :) after fapping I decided to take KB's numbers for a spin. 

In regular season, you want to improve on preseason and so forth.  I am going by the assumption % of plays is neutral in interpretation, meaning face value.  

2011 *Cam's first year (6 wins)

Pre-season 3 per game, Regular 2.1875

% of change: decrease in sacks per game by 27.083%

2012 (7 wins)

Pre-season 3 per game, Regular 2.25

% of change: decrease in sacks per game by 25%

2013 (12 wins)

Pre-season 1.75 per game, Regular 2.6875

% of change: increase in sacks per game by 53.5714%

2014 (7 wins)

Pre-season 2.5 per game, Regular 2.625

% of change: increase in sacks per game by 5%.

 

2015 O-line prediction

21 ceiling to 31 floor for sacks allowed by the O-line.  Ratio at 4.2 to 6.1 going by Shula era.  Around 1.767442 to 2.635484% in plays resulting in a sack.  Of course, there is other factors/variables. Strong pre-season for O-line has a strong correlation of season's future.

I think KB might be onto something!  Damn I am excited!!!