Wesseling uses Riverboat Ron as the poster child for using analytics

[TheRed]

 

People like to say this, but I'm not sure that it's true. In 2013 we were 10 for 13 on 4th down, in 2014 we were 6 for 10. That's only a few less times going for it and a little less efficiency. Moreover, a lot of it has to do with field position and how well the O-Line has been playing that day. Rivera has typically gone for it on 4th down when we're just outside of field goal range, and when he's had confidence in the offense. Would you really expect him to go for it in a game like say the Eagles game from last year, when our line was just getting destroyed?

 

The other issue is the aggressiveness of his play calling, and this is one area where he might have regressed on 2014. Rivera stated in interviews that they didn't use the no huddle early in the season because of Cam's limited mobility, but I call BS. They didn't seem to have a problem using it late in the season after Cam's car accident. I think neither Rivera or Shula have the balls to break out of the traditional 'run the ball when ahead, pass the ball when behind' strategies, except when the season is on the line. I would like to see this team impose its will more in that regard.

To be clear, I wasn't really referring to going for it on 4th down. I touched on it a little more in the second post.

In general, Rivera has been literally outcoached at times. Right now the Seahawks (and one of the best coaches in the NFL, Pete Carroll) stand in our way. If Ron can get to the next level coaching, there is no reason that we should not be able to go deep into the playoffs with the talent we have.

[motocross_cat]

Bad situations are inevitable but the good teams seem to never be in them often.  I just think we are at that point THIS year.  Time will tell.

[UKPanther94]

When people say about 2014 Ron, it's because of two moments that really cost us, towards the end of the Bengals game and the first Falcons game, he needs to have more faith in Cam to get the job done, in both those games he'd marched the offense down the field. If Cam's getting paid that much, Ron should trust him to come up clutch in those moments, like he did in those late comebacks in 2013

[Paa Langfart]

I like Rivera,  but to be honest I dont know if he can match football wits with guys like Bellacheat and P Carrol.  We are going to have to have a much more talented team in order to beat well coached teams like them.  I think Rivera is practically clueless when it comes to the offensive side of the ball and relying on guys like Shula and his carrying a failing special teams coach last season makes me concerned about his judgement.

[panthers55]

I like Rivera,  but to be honest I dont know if he can match football wits with guys like Bellacheat and P Carrol.  We are going to have to have a much more talented team in order to beat well coached teams like them.  I think Rivera is practically clueless when it comes to the offensive side of the ball and relying on guys like Shula and his carrying a failing special teams coach last season makes me concerned about his judgement.

So how long has bill Belicheck and Pete Carroll been head coaches or for how many teams?  This is Rivera's first coaching job and he has done it for 4 years.  Seems to me that he will continue to improve as he learns and gains experience like everyone.

 

As for Rivera not knowing offense that is pretty stupid.  How exactly does a defensive coach prepare the defense for whatever the offense is going to do unless he knows their offense inside and out for every team we will play all season.  Defensive coordinators have to know as much about the offenses they will face as he does about the defenses he will use.

[panthers55]

When people say about 2014 Ron, it's because of two moments that really cost us, towards the end of the Bengals game and the first Falcons game, he needs to have more faith in Cam to get the job done, in both those games he'd marched the offense down the field. If Cam's getting paid that much, Ron should trust him to come up clutch in those moments, like he did in those late comebacks in 2013

Geem maybe the difference is that in the early part of the season Cam was limited in mobility and we rely on him and his mobility for much of the redzone offense.  Once he was healthy later in the year it wasnt an issue.  It wont be again as long as Cam is healthy,

[panthers55]

 

People like to say this, but I'm not sure that it's true. In 2013 we were 10 for 13 on 4th down, in 2014 we were 6 for 10. That's only a few less times going for it and a little less efficiency. Moreover, a lot of it has to do with field position and how well the O-Line has been playing that day. Rivera has typically gone for it on 4th down when we're just outside of field goal range, and when he's had confidence in the offense. Would you really expect him to go for it in a game like say the Eagles game from last year, when our line was just getting destroyed?

 

The other issue is the aggressiveness of his play calling, and this is one area where he might have regressed on 2014. Rivera stated in interviews that they didn't use the no huddle early in the season because of Cam's limited mobility, but I call BS. They didn't seem to have a problem using it late in the season after Cam's car accident. I think neither Rivera or Shula have the balls to break out of the traditional 'run the ball when ahead, pass the ball when behind' strategies, except when the season is on the line. I would like to see this team impose its will more in that regard.

Agree with the first part but totally disagree on the second.  Anyone who saw Cam in the first part of the year knows he had very limited mobility through the first half of the year and couldnt take a hit due to the rib injury.  While it was a bad car accident later in the year he was not impacted nearly as much with the back injury as it was painful but didnt limit his mobility or ability to run.  Maybe it will be different this year but up to now our redzone package was Greg Olsen or Cam making a play.  We had little else last year given that Benjamin dropped multiple passes in the endzone.  And by the way, controlling the clock and running the ball when you are ahead and being forced to pass when behind isnt a strategy but the way all teams act especially when you dont have a top 10 offense and limited offensive talent.. 

[KB_fan]

Speaking of Stats... I came across some interesting Panthers stats at WFNZ:  Debated whether to give it its own thread, but thought it fit in well here.  These stats come from Football Outsiders:

http://wfnz.com/2015/08/07/a-statistical-look-at-the-panther/

I am a big fan of the annual Football Outsiders Almanac.

For a stat geek like me, there is nothing better than overdosing on all their stats when it comes to the Panthers.

Here are some of the most interesting ones I found.

Again, they are courtesy of Football Outsiders.

• Panthers were 27^th in 3^rd down efficiency on offense and 22^nd in 3^rd down efficiency on Defense. They need to be better on the money down this year.
• They were in the nickel package 68 percent of the time. That is the 2^nd highest total in the NFL. I would expect it to go down some with Shaw Thompson on board.
• Panthers were 24^th in the NFL in Blitz percentage. They blitzed only 25 percent of the time. I would think Shaq’s presence might change that too.
• They faced the 5^th most defenders, on average, in the box last year. This means tons of chances for Cam to exploit things in Secondary.
• Panthers were 7^th in Defensive sack percentage. So, the Pass Rush was down, but it was far from bad.
• They gave up the 2^nd most yards per play (9.4) when blitzing defensive backs. They need to find some DBs who can get home on the blitz like they had in 2013.
• Panthers ran the 5^th highest percentage of play action pass plays (28 pct).   The defensive attention to the run game keys the pass game.
• Panthers lost the 25^th most average player games to injury on offense, but lost the fewest on defense.   Injuries definitely played a role in offensive struggles.
• They were 5^th in Red Zone passing efficiency, but 30^th in red zone running efficiency. This has to change. With Cam, Stew and Tolbert, they must be able to run in the red zone better.

[RelaxImaPro]

He regressed a good bit for a lot of the year (that fuging Falcons game... jeeze), but that Browns and wildcard Cardinals game was some of the most aggressive late game play calling I've seen from Rivera so far.

So hopefully he's finally learned his lesson.

[Paa Langfart]

So how long has bill Belicheck and Pete Carroll been head coaches or for how many teams?  This is Rivera's first coaching job and he has done it for 4 years.  Seems to me that he will continue to improve as he learns and gains experience like everyone.

 

As for Rivera not knowing offense that is pretty stupid.  How exactly does a defensive coach prepare the defense for whatever the offense is going to do unless he knows their offense inside and out for every team we will play all season.  Defensive coordinators have to know as much about the offenses they will face as he does about the defenses he will use.

I was talking about him not knowing how to run OUR offense - yes I know that is why he has a coordinator, but I wonder about his choice of an offensive coordinator to be his right hand man.

 

And not everyone keeps getting better at their chosen fields of endeavor.  Look at all the head coaches from the past that have been fired for good reason and never  see another hc position.

[Paa Langfart]

He regressed a good bit for a lot of the year (that fuging Falcons game... jeeze), but that Browns and wildcard Cardinals game was some of the most aggressive late game play calling I've seen from Rivera so far.

So hopefully he's finally learned his lesson.

Rivera only seems to be aggressive when his back is up against the wall.  That is a problem.

[panthers55]

 

I understand that Shula isnt everyone's choice but his style of play which is run heavy and control the clock is exactly what Rivera wants as does Gettleman.  Not only does he know offense but when you count on your defense to win games and the offense to limit the other team's chances to possess the ball then your offense looks like ours will this year.  When we play well and score points this year people will finally figure out that Shula is a decent pick as long as he has the personnel to run his system.

By the way.  Anyone of those coaches you are talking win coach of the year in the NFL and win the division 2 years in a row.  If Ron were fired tomorrow, he would have a coordinator job in 2 minutes and likely a head coaching job if not right away then within a year.

[panthers55]

Rivera only seems to be aggressive when his back is up against the wall.  That is a problem.

Another Rivera myth.  He is aggressive when he thinks he can be successful and has confidence in the team executing.  There were surely times last year when I doubt most people had confidence in the team and the offense in particular. Particularly during that long losing streak.

[PandaPancake]

this

Hell, I don't think he implemented the no-huddle as a weapon until week 14 against the Saints with a 3-8-1 record. From the first series Carolina used the no-huddle and jumped all over the Saints to a 41-10 win. Why did it take 14 weeks?

Pie because I forgot that was the score.