Wesseling uses Riverboat Ron as the poster child for using analytics

[top dawg]

Well what a slightly pleasant surprise I got when I clicked on this article ostensibly about Gary Kubiak and the Broncos.  Chris Wesseling basically gave Ron Rivera some props for leaning on analytics to help turn the 2013 season around. 

Ron Rivera learned the hard way. After being saddled with the NFL's worst record in close games early in his Panthers coaching career, Rivera saved his job with an epiphany that abandoned long-held, risk-averse gridiron axioms.

Rivera ditched conventional wisdom after reviewing a study by a professor at his alma mater, UC Berkeley.

It seems like Wesseling really went out of his way to compliment Rivera in this piece, giving Rivera props for learning his lesson well.

Armed with an expanded understanding of probability in determining the outcome of football games, Rivera began reeling off victories in close games by employing the enlightenment of analytics.

Now, here's the thing: I like Rivera, and I believe that he is a fine coach, but did Rivera's baptism in analytics really carry over from 2013 to 2014?  I ask (tongue-in-cheek) because I know that someone is going to probably disagree and point to one call in particular (which I will let you guess). The thing is though, we made the playoffs for the last two seasons, and last year's basically hung on every call (even some that were assailed).

I tend to think that Riverboat Ron is still below the surface, ready to make appropriate appearances when necessary, because Rivera really is a smart guy and student of the game.  Sure he's still learning, but he is now "seasoned" with analytics and experience, and the Panthers will continue to benefit. 

[Growl]

Uh yeah there are very few moments I have as a Panthers fan where I was as angry as I was at Ron for the first Atlanta game. The Riverboat stayed in port last year.

[TheRed]

Problem is, he reverted back to his old ways in 2014. How many times does he have to learn the same lesson?

For this team to be successful this year, Ron has to be Riverboat from here on out.

[motocross_cat]

Im hoping we dont need the riverboat to leave port near as much this year.  We are too good of a team to be putting ourselfs in those positions.  Time to start playing like it.

[SgtJoo]

Problem is, he reverted back to his old ways in 2014. How many times does he have to learn the same lesson?

For this team to be successful this year, Ron has to be Riverboat from here on out.

He basically only goes for it after we drop half the games in the season and his job is on the line.

[Cary Kollins]

He basically only goes for it after we drop half the games in the season and his job is on the line.

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Hell, I don't think he implemented the no-huddle as a weapon until week 14 against the Saints with a 3-8-1 record. From the first series Carolina used the no-huddle and jumped all over the Saints to a 41-10 win. Why did it take 14 weeks?

[top dawg]

Im hoping we dont need the riverboat to leave port near as much this year.  We are too good of a team to be putting ourselfs in those positions.  Time to start playing like it.

Yeah, mcc, I would like to think that we are too good of a team to put ourselves in those type of situations this coming season, but, remember, this is the NFL. The talent level is decidedly close, and "any given Sunday" is more than just a trite phrase.  Moreover, historically and philosophically our style of play is arguably a recipe for close games. 

Lastly---which directly reflects upon Rivera---is the Shula angle.  Now, I am not a Shula fan, but perhaps this supposed infusion of offensive talent will help him to open up a little bit and erase my skepticism.

 

BTW, people talk about the Riverboat being in port last season, but in some ways with the injuries, lack of experience and depth, we might have been shipwrecked had Rivera gotten drunk on his own Kool-Aid.

[top dawg]

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Hell, I don't think he implemented the no-huddle as a weapon until week 14 against the Saints with a 3-8-1 record. From the first series Carolina used the no-huddle and jumped all over the Saints to a 41-10 win. Why did it take 14 weeks?

In fairness, during Gettleman's interview right after the season, he alluded to the fact that the relative noobs weren't really ready until later in the season.  It's a bitch when you have to rely on so many youngsters. Rivera had to be very deliberate in his calculations. Whether you think it was by design, or just plain luck, we worked it out.

[TheRed]

Not all of what unfolded last season was Rivera's fault obviously. Injuries, completely new WR group, OL struggles, Hardy's suspension/departure.

But some of the gameday coaching gaffes were just unbelievable, things we should not have been still witnessing yet again 4 years into his position here. He has got to improve on that this year. There is no way around it. Period.

[OneBadCat]

I dont think it has as much to do with probability as it is growing a pair of balls and putting the fate of the game in your own hands.

[panthers55]

ROn is not nearly as bad as many of you make him out to be.  He has to decide if he is going to go for a first down on fourth down for example based on the particular situation, available personnel and other factors.  Then you have to assess your strengths against the other's teams strengths or weaknesses and decide if you chance to succeed at that point in time justifies the consequences if you go for it and not make it. And you have to decide that all within a space of a minute or less.  it isn't as simple as just going for it.  If Ron was less of a risk taker in 2014 versus 2013 he didn't forget anything.  He basically evaluated the situation and didnt think the chances of success outweighted the consequence of failure.  There is nothing to improve on or change.  With better personnel should come better confidence in your squad and the likelihood of taking more chances.  But to take a chance without a reasonable chance for success is foolhardy.  Last year we were not a good team until the end of the year.

[UpstatePanther]

not to excuse the boneheaded playcalls that were sometimes made, but didnt Rivera show flashes of Riverboat last year? it seemed like a rollercoaster season concerning Ron's liberality 

[Cookie Lyon]

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Hell, I don't think he implemented the no-huddle as a weapon until week 14 against the Saints with a 3-8-1 record. From the first series Carolina used the no-huddle and jumped all over the Saints to a 41-10 win. Why did it take 14 weeks?

That's what I don't understand about Rivera. He never does what works until he thinks he is on the hot seat.

 

[Gallagher]

Problem is, he reverted back to his old ways in 2014.

People like to say this, but I'm not sure that it's true. In 2013 we were 10 for 13 on 4th down, in 2014 we were 6 for 10. That's only a few less times going for it and a little less efficiency. Moreover, a lot of it has to do with field position and how well the O-Line has been playing that day. Rivera has typically gone for it on 4th down when we're just outside of field goal range, and when he's had confidence in the offense. Would you really expect him to go for it in a game like say the Eagles game from last year, when our line was just getting destroyed?

 

The other issue is the aggressiveness of his play calling, and this is one area where he might have regressed on 2014. Rivera stated in interviews that they didn't use the no huddle early in the season because of Cam's limited mobility, but I call BS. They didn't seem to have a problem using it late in the season after Cam's car accident. I think neither Rivera or Shula have the balls to break out of the traditional 'run the ball when ahead, pass the ball when behind' strategies, except when the season is on the line. I would like to see this team impose its will more in that regard.