Harvard - Panthers bottom 10 team in 2015

[arbnranger]

I work with math and models (not the Igo kind, the nerd kind) occasionally at my job.  Here are my issues with this article:
 

• Uses Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value statistic as a be-all end-all metric. Then immediately from the description of Approximate Value: 

"AV is not meant to be a be-all end-all metric. Football stat lines just do not come close to capturing all the contributions of a player the way they do in baseball and basketball."

• Does not account for team depth by choosing relatively random players.  The top 4 front seven?  Really?  Why not the top 7 front seven?  
• Does not account for injuries
• Rookies have the same value as backups.  That means Devin Funchess has the same value right now as Jason Avant or Marcus Lucas?  
• Ran linear regression with last years data for Elo ratings and found a high correlation which means fart noises pfffffffffffffffttttttttttttttt who cares

No seriously the last point is where statistically he's correct but logically he's really flawed.  Naturally you want to test your model against historical data, but the results aren't really surprising.  It's highly correlated...it should be!  He's taking the final AV of players (which accounts for team success in some way)  and is saying teams with the most AV win more.  The more successful teams are successful?  Well...yes, its right there in the definition of AV.  

 

Using it to project forward is essentially worthless, especially when you're cherry picking your observations.  If he did this based on the entire offensive or defensive rosters and came up with projected rankings I would consider it a little more but it's nothing more than a July fluff piece with some statistical bologna thrown in there.  Not shitting on the guys statistics, they seem to be pretty sound, but the lack of common sense in the application is hard to swallow.  

 

 

Yea! ....what he said. 

[Goondal]

I would like to personally invite this guy to my fantasy league

[Jimmy]

This makes me smile and here is why. If you take the positions that he uses for his measurables he is obviously going to get better numbers with teams in which those positions played a ton of games (mostly established veterans). Our Top 4 front 7 probably is why we aren't in the bottom 5!  But little does Mr. Harvard know that we have pretty nasty guards, WRs ready to break out big this year, hellava TE, DBs that will handcuff yo ass.  Most of those were rookies or guys who didn't solidfy their spots until later in the year.   

 

Also, I really don't give a fug what Mr. Sweatervest thinks anyway.

[pantherphan96]

I would like to personally invite this guy to my fantasy league

he's that one guy that takes the Seahawks DST in like the 10th round while you can still gets quality RBs and WRs

[Snake]

You watch 2 guys wrestle and you're like oh... they ain't doing much and that's kinda gay.

 

Then you start wrestling and it's extremely tiring and requires lots of stamina. plus it's still pretty gay.

I was always to afraid of the teabag. 

[CatMan72]

I'm gonna find this guy and shove him in his locker. 

[Chaos]

About as valuable as Western Carolina weighing in on quantum physics.

[SmokinwithWilly]

I might have more respect for this if it was from MIT.