Interesting article by NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell about Cam Newton

[pantherking15]

​Sometimes it's not that simple. You are looking for a trend here not the simple career stats. Career will suggest they are the same but looking at it season by season, it will show that his completion and rating have been improving each year whereas Newton's has sort of hovered around the same place.

I think that's the premise of the whole article, it's time to build around his strengths and not try to make him who he is not.

​Actually, between his 2nd and 3rd year, Cam improved his stats just like Luck did (albeit not in the volume stats like passing yards because of our switch to Shula's ball control run first offense). His completion % went up from 57.7% to 61.7%, passing TDs went up from 19 to 24. On the surface, you may see that the passer rating only went up from 86.2 to 88.8 but if you look at Cam's 2013 game log (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/13994/year/2013/cam-newton), you'll see he had a 98.6 average passer rating those first 8 games but it dropped to 86.4 average passer rating the last 8 games because Cam injured his ankle in the week 10 49ers game (that's why IMO Cam's overthrows increased noticeably the 2nd half of the 2013 season).

I don't think you can hold 2014 against Cam in terms of stats or as evidence of lack of progression. Excluding the obvious injuries he was dealing with, Cam had to deal with a garbage LT/LG/RG/RT the first 11 games, rebuilt WR corps, and a depleted RB corps. I guarantee you Luck's stats would go down between his 3rd and 4th year if he had to deal with what Cam dealt with. This season if Cam can pick up where he left off (mid-2013), everyone will see that Cam is still improving and hasn't reached his potential.

[CelibatePimp]

​Actually, between his 2nd and 3rd year, Cam improved his stats just like Luck did (albeit not in the volume stats like passing yards because of our switch to Shula's ball control run first offense). His completion % went up from 57.7% to 61.7%, passing TDs went up from 19 to 24. On the surface, you may see that the passer rating only went up from 86.2 to 88.8 but if you look at Cam's 2013 game log (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/13994/year/2013/cam-newton), you'll see he had a 98.6 average passer rating those first 8 games but it dropped to 86.4 average passer rating the last 8 games because Cam injured his ankle in the week 10 49ers game (that's why IMO Cam's overthrows increased noticeably the 2nd half of the 2013 season).

I don't think you can hold 2014 against Cam in terms of stats or as evidence of lack of progression. Excluding the obvious injuries he was dealing with, Cam had to deal with a garbage LT/LG/RG/RT the first 11 games, rebuilt WR corps, and a depleted RB corps. I guarantee you Luck's stats would go down between his 3rd and 4th year if he had to deal with what Cam dealt with. This season if Cam can pick up where he left off (mid-2013), everyone will see that Cam is still improving and hasn't reached his potential.

​I'm not holding anything against him. I was just pointing out that it was a false narrative to compare their career stats to suggest they are the same when actually it was Luck's rookie season that drags his career stats down. Essentially an outlier. If you excused Luck's rookie season and Cam's 2014 season, you'd realize Luck's completion and rating are better.

[arbnranger]

Favre's didn't really improve all that much. They built around him to minimize the WTF throws, but they never went away.

That might be Cam too, but Favre was successful anyway.

Agree with this . When Guys like Favre and Cam get in "the zone" it makes for some serious excitement.

[CoastalCat]

 

Bingo. I love watching Ace Boogie do work on the field, but he misses these short and medium throws too often. I really believe if he connects on just half of the those missed throws, this offense is gonna be scary good. 

​Couldn't agree more. "Frustrating" was definitely the right word. Best example I can (kind of) remember was that goal line pass in the 2013 Seahawks game, intended for Richie maybe. Goal line, Richie gets open about 8 yards from Newton who is scrambling to the right. Ball hits the turf 4 yards out. 

Love some Cam, but hope he hasn't already peaked.

[MaineManPanther]

You have to evaluate Cam on the whole.  

Think about it.  If Cam was a perfect precision passer he would literally be unstoppable and the greatest QB the world has ever seen when you factor in his arm strength and running ability.

 But he does miss some throws here and there (as do most QBs).  But when you evaluate him, you have to take into account also the things he CAN do that other NFL QBs CAN'T.

And those things even out some of the bad things (like missing certain throws occasionally).

You can't say "look at this throw, only 4 or 5 people can make that throw and is one of the best scramblers/runners we have ever seen" and then say "he misses, therefore he is frustrating"

It is like saying Cam is frustrating because he isn't the best QB you can ever imagine.  A precision passer, with a cannon for an arm, amazing scrambling ability, with amazing strength.

It isn't frustrating, it is God's way of keeping it fair for the rest of the football world.

Disagree. There is middle ground between what Newton is now as a passer and being a "perfect precision passer". Myself, and I  believe most people, don't expect or demand Newton to be Brady or Rodgers level accurate. But expecting him to be consistently around the 62-64  completion percentage is fair , and he hasn't done that yet.  

Obviously he's young, and has not had some advantages other Qbs have. I have confidence he can improve it. But as others who have paid attention to his game have said, a notable part it is he's simply not a consistently accurate Qb right now.

 

[TheRed]

​Couldn't agree more. "Frustrating" was definitely the right word. Best example I can (kind of) remember was that goal line pass in the 2013 Seahawks game, intended for Richie maybe. Goal line, Richie gets open about 8 yards from Newton who is scrambling to the right. Ball hits the turf 4 yards out. 

Love some Cam, but hope he hasn't already peaked.

​Do you mean the ball that hit the ground in the fourth quarter of the Seahawks game from 2012? That was to Hartsock.

It's a bit much to still be holding that loss against him, especially if you are going to omit the fact that he was very clutch at the end of games in 2013.

[Verge]

Disagree on some of it, he really does make receivers better, he is going to end up in the upper echelon of the qbs, and he can carry a team. Otherwise, the article is fairly spot on.

[CoastalCat]

​Do you mean the ball that hit the ground in the fourth quarter of the Seahawks game from 2012? That was to Hartsock.

It's a bit much to still be holding that loss against him, especially if you are going to omit the fact that he was very clutch at the end of games in 2013.

​Glad I qualified that with a (kind of). Just an example. It's not even always on clutch plays. There are plenty where a simple check down would keep him from getting hit so freakin' much. Not trying to be a hater. Just sayin'. 

I will also say that, while watching a defense-heavy team play offense is endlessly frustrating, I'd still rather have defense be the stronger team every time. Love it. 

[TheRed]

​Glad I qualified that with a (kind of). Just an example. It's not even always on clutch plays. There are plenty where a simple check down would keep him from getting hit so freakin' much. Not trying to be a hater. Just sayin'. 

I will also say that, while watching a defense-heavy team play offense is endlessly frustrating, I'd still rather have defense be the stronger team every time. Love it. 

​I think we should, and will see that this year with the pieces we have on the offense now. But with a QB like Newton, who is always looking to extend the play, sometimes sacks are going to happen. Personally, especially with the money we have invested in him, I would like to see more of an emphasis put on Newton working from within the pocket, especially with the quick throws, early last year he was lethal back there. Obviously you cannot and should not remove the threat of his running ability, but there is a definite balance to be had. Not to mention, when he is gassed from running, at the end of the day the guy is still human, it's going to affect his mechanics a little.

[Mr. Scot]

Agree with this . When Guys like Favre and Cam get in "the zone" it makes for some serious excitement.

Gunslingers are notoriously streaky players. When they get going on a hot streak, it's fantastic, but those bad streaks can be ugly.

[TheRed]

The Favre comparison is somewhat valid passing wise, but it doesn't hold up much when you account for Newton's scrambling/running ability.

[UNCrules2187]

Bucky Brooks had a great breakdown as well: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000495629/article/cam-newtons-panthers-extension-justified-by-qbs-unique-skills?campaign=Twitter_writers_brooks

 

Well worth the read.

[shreddingdefense]

I dislike comparing qbs. each one plays with different receivers, blocking,running game, and defense. Too many factors decide if a play is either good or bad. Did the qb have enough time to throw? Was the receivers open? Was the team able to run the ball? Depending on how well the running game is that can play a part in if playaction passes work, or if they are gunning for the run and the team throws a wench into the defense by just dropping back and throwing. Is the other team ahead on the scoreboard? Does your d stop their o? If your d is constantly making the other offense go three in out, then your passing should be better just by their d being on the field more. Do you have mike shula as a oc? Are you using the players in the right scheme? injureis? Obviously a qb is going to have more yards and tds if he is passing more, still doesn't make him better than the other who only needs to throw in 25-30 because his team is built on running it.  Apples and oranges

[The NFL Shield At Midfield]

i still think a lot of it is mechanical.  it seems like when he sets his feet he delivers a more accurate ball.  of course there are still times when he's had a clean pocket and still missed high (like this past season @ the saints where he missed cotchery by a mile on third down early in the game) but that's just the kind of player he is.  you take the stuff he's good/great at with the bad and make personnel moves to minimize the latter.

you could certainly dig through his games and find examples to the contrary, but i don't think cam makes dumb decisions chronically.  it seems like a lot of his picks are off of tipped balls that are either too high or in front/behind a small window which are usually related to mechanics.  i don't recall many times where he had time in the pocket and was just fooled by the coverage and threw it straight to a defender.  that's not to imply that it's never happened-off the top of my head i can think of the pick 6 against denver and the one against new orleans in 2012 and the one against seattle from last season.  i remember mike martz kind of calling out deangelo during the telecast against new orleans because he just kind of settled down with no awareness of where the defender was and didn't attack the ball similar to what dickson did against the seahawks.

also he's probably the most unlucky quarterback i've ever seen when it comes to throwaway balls getting intercepted.  against the bears in 2012 and the browns this last season come to mind.