D. Newton & Others mentioning Panthers & PAT rule. Advantage?

[top dawg]

In David Newton's latest mailbag, he discusses the new PAT rules and how they could benefit the Panthers.  Newton isn't the first to mention this as perhaps some kind of advantage, but I just don't buy the hype.  I have been thinking that it's perhaps much ado about nothing...but, maybe not. 

 

As Newton noted, he doesn't expect Ron RIvera to make a notable change in the way that he views the PAT, given his overall philosophy, as well as the accuracy of Graham Gano.

 I really don't see Ron Rivera going for two more with the new rule than he did before. As I mentioned above, Gano is almost automatic from the new PAT distance. The change will be in the added pressure teams put on PATs with the opportunity to return blocks for two points.

 

We all know that Riverboat Ron will not be rolling the dice after touchdowns this year.  But, we might have somewhat of an advantage when strategy and the game calls for our big, strong QB, and our behemoth wide-outs to make their presence known near the end zone.  In one of the b/r vids in the other thread, Chris Simms notes that Cam has one of the best back-shoulder throws in the business.  With the difference between games sometimes coming down to a few key plays, I can easily see a two point conversion being the determining factor.  With at least four trees (including Cam), not to mention a bowling ball at FB and RBs that excel at getting positive yardage even after contact, I guess that I can see us having a material advantage as compared to other teams when two point conversions are necessary.

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In other mailbag news, Newton believes that Thomas Davis should get his contract before the season starts, noting that Sam Mills played at a high level until he was 37. Newton also "gets real" about Damiere Byrd's chances to crack the roster.

 

[PandaPancake]

Thanks for reading and summarizing so I don't have to

[*FreeFua*]

Almost automatic...

 

[KillerKat]

I don't see how it's an advantage to anyone but the defense as they have a chance to score now.

[Snake]

I'm supprised Byrd is getting so much attention. I really do hope he works out.

[tondi]

I don't think we will go for 2pt conversions any more than we ever have, unless we are in some kind of bad weather type game where all bets are off.

[jayflip]

If only Josh Norman's preseason Pick Zero could be replicated...

[TN05]

I don't think this rule will really encourage more two-point conversions. The rule change actually makes it less likely for the offense to benefit, because now the defense can score. The odds of making an extra point are only slightly worse, while the odds of making a two-point conversion are basically the same.

[CPantherKing]

Newton is dead wrong along with most people who do not understand binomial probabilities and the debated hot-hand/hot-streak hypothesis. There is a break point where 2-point conversions outweigh sticking with a kicker from the 15-yard line.

If you want an explanation of probabilities regarding the rule change read on. If not, I apologize. Not sure how to hide long text with this new format.

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A team will have 11 drives in a game and score 3 to 4 times in a game. On a game where they pile up the points they will score 8 times in a game.

The probability Gano makes 4/4 kicks in a game from the old PAT range is 92.6%.

The probability he makes a 30 to 34 yard field goal 4/4 times in a game is 39.1%.

Assuming Gano does not attempt a FG in a game and only kicks PATs, he would have a 79.1% probability of scoring 1 point on 1 attempt, a 62.6% probability of scoring 2 points on 2 attempts, a 49.5% probability of scoring 3 points on 3 attempts, and a 39.1% probability of scoring 4 points on 4 attempts. For every FG attempt Gano makes in between his PATs, then these probabilities drop even more.

On 2 Point conversions, the Panthers have a 60.2% probability of scoring 2 points on 1 attempt, and a 47.9% probability of scoring 2 points on 2 attempts. Here is the game changer, the Panthers have a 65.1% probability of scoring 4 points or more with 3 attempts. They have an 82.3% probability of scoring 4 points or more on 4 attempts. 

The Panthers with Cam at QB are 75% on 2 point conversions. Add Derek Anderson and they are 60%. All passes and no runs. Problem with this is it only accounts for 5 2-point attempts. Adding in goal to go runs from the 2 over the Rivera era, the Panthers convert 60.2% of their attempts. If you factor in passing with goal to go from the 2 yard line, then they convert on 56.5% of their attempts.

Even with 56.5%, the Panthers have a 59.7% probability of scoring 4 points or more on 3 attempts. Compare that on the max probability of scoring 4 points on 4 attempts for Gano (39.1%).

Would you rather take the chance at 3 points on 4 attempts kicking, or 2 points on 4 attempts running? 1 less point, but the payoff is greater with the 2 point conversions with less risk of failure. The probability of getting 3 or 4 points on 4 PATs is 80.5%. The probability of getting 2 or more points on 4 2-point conversions is 97.5% with only 15.2% of that being a probability of getting only 1 2-point conversion.

If you plan on only scoring 2 TDs, then your better odds are to plan to kick PATs. If you plan on scoring 3 or more TDs, then you always go for the 2 point conversion. The value of the additional point with the ability to miss 50% of the time on 2 point conversions outweighs putting your money on a kicker being consistent on 3 or more attempts throughout a game.

Even if you only converted on 40% of your 2 point attempts, the break point is 4 scores where 2 point conversions overtake PATs.

Now factor in Gano averaging 4 to 5 total attempts per game.

The coaches that figure this out will have a decided advantage. The coaches who play it safe and think a kicker can make 90% or more of their PAT attempts from 30+ yards out will put their teams in a more difficult situation. This will also weed out the kickers who are not very accurate and rely more on their leg strength. Same as letting basketball players take lay ups for foul shots and then moving them back to the free throw line.

When you consider there are 2 to 3 games per season that are decided by 2 points or less for a team, and the typical difference to win a contested division or make it into the playoffs as a wild card is 1.5 games, then you see the dramatic impact this rule will have. It all depends on the coaches, and if they figure it out soon enough and are willing to change. I guarantee you Chip Kelly already has, and The Golden Calf of Bristol is going to be QB sneaking and running the QB option all day for 2 point conversions.

The only time to kick a PAT now is at the end of the game with 4 minutes or less on the clock if it forces the other team to score a touchdown instead of a FG. If you score less than 3 times a game and cannot convert 1 2-point conversion, then you deserve to lose.

Another way of thinking about it in basketball terms without doing all the calculations is this: I give you a horrible high school player who hits 50% of his layups, and I award him 2 points for every basket he makes. I then give you LeBron James with his 75% free throw shooting, but he only gets 1 point per shot. Tie pushes it to a tie breaking extra shot. Giving them both 2 shots who would you take? Giving them both 4 shots who would you take? Giving them both 8 shots who would you take? Highest score wins. I am taking LeBron with 2 shots. I am taking the crappy high school player with 4 or more shots.

[PantherBoy95]

Newton is dead wrong along with most people who do not understand binomial probabilities and the debated hot-hand/hot-streak hypothesis. There is a break point where 2-point conversions outweigh sticking with a kicker from the 15-yard line.

If you want an explanation of probabilities regarding the rule change read on. If not, I apologize. Not sure how to hide long text with this new format.

-----

A team will have 11 drives in a game and score 3 to 4 times in a game. On a game where they pile up the points they will score 8 times in a game.

The probability Gano makes 4/4 kicks in a game from the old PAT range is 92.6%.

The probability he makes a 30 to 34 yard field goal 4/4 times in a game is 39.1%.

​BRAIN...OVER..LOAD....TOO..MUCH...MATH...WORDS...

[CPantherKing]

​BRAIN...OVER..LOAD....TOO..MUCH...MATH...WORDS...

​Sorry. lol.

This one should be easier to understand for anyone who fears the risk of turning the ball over and having it go back for a defensive score with the rule change.

You had a better chance of the kicker missing a PAT from from the old spot. The probability of 8 consecutive 2-point conversions in a game without a turnover returned for a touchdown is 99.4%.

Of 2721 plays run from the 2-yard line since 2000, only 2 have been returned by the defense for touchdowns.

Any coach using this as an excuse for not running 2-point conversions is ill-prepared and should not be coaching at any level.

[Jangler]

Newton is dead wrong along with most ....

OMG Lay off the cocaine.