2015 Carolina Panthers Roster Projection

[Zithers]

aj klein > adarius glanton

charles tillman > carrington byndom

 

and trusnik was signed specifically for his ST prowess so he's gonna make it too. ST aces were a focus for g-man and rivera.

 

dunno who he'd replace. maybe nate chandler or brandon williams.

[pantherphan96]

IMO aj klein would have to suck absolute ass in camp to not make this roster

 

Agreed. I would say the same with Tillman too.

[pantherphan96]

Quarterbacks (3)

 

Cam Newton

Derek Anderson

Joe Webb

 

Running Backs (3)

Jonathan Stewart

Fozzy Whitaker

Cameron Artis-Payne

Jordan Todman

 

Not seeing the use for Todman considering all the other ST upgrades this offseason.

 

Fullbacks (1)

Mike Tolbert

 

Tight Ends (4)

Greg Olsen

Ed Dickson

Brandon Williams

Richie Brockel

 

Offensive Line (10)

Michael Oher

Andrew Norwell

Trai Turner

Ryan Kalil 

Daryl Williams

Mike Remmers

Jonathan Martin 

Nate Chandler 

Brian Folkerts

Amini Silatolu

 

Unless Amini is healthy and productive in camp, I think he will be let go.

 

Wide Receivers (6)

Kelvin Benjamin

Devin Funchess

Jerricho Cotchery

Tedd Ginn

Corey Brown

Jarrett Boykin

 

WR should really depend on what happens in camp

 

Defensive Line (8)

Charles Johnson

Kony Ealy

Star Lotulelei 

KK Short

Dwan Edwards

Colin Cole

Frank Alexander

Mario Addison

 

Linebackers (6)

Thomas Davis

Luke Kuechly

Adarius Glanton

Shaq Thompson

AJ Klein

David Mayo

 

Safeties (4)

Roman Harper

Tre Boston

Colin Jones

Robert Lester

 

Cornerbacks (6)

Josh Norman

Bene Benwikere

Teddy Williams

Carrington Byndom

Melvin White

Garry Peters

 

Special Teams (3)

JJ Jansen

Graham Gano

Brad Nortman

 

Overall, I think this training camp will be a lot more intense this year with so many guys fighting for possible roster spots. Would not be surprised if we had a couple fights break out this year.

[the butch]

Colin Jones is my dark horse Panther.  That guy came up HUGE late in games last year.  Can't remember the team, but one play sticks out where he got to the QB, missed, tumbled to the ground, got back up, leaped over another player, and made the tackle.

[rmoneyg35]

I hope Amini is cut.

Coleman will make the team and end up being a solid player for us. This is my prediction.

I could see Fozzy and Todman being cut. I know Fozzy had a great playoff performance but because Wegher has 4.40 speed I could see Todman and maybe Fozzy being cut.

The players talk about Tillman making a huge difference so it would be a major surprise if he doesn't make the team.

Peters and Byndom will fight for the last CB spot.

I think Horton will be cut but I thought this last year and he ended up starting so maybe he makes the team again, maybe we keep 5 DE.

Brandon Williams will be cut.

[KB_fan]

Until we see players in camp, to some degree these projections are just merely us picking our favorite players at each position.

 

I thought it might be helpful to try and quantify at which positions the most ferocious roster battles are going to shape up.  I found three positions in particular where the chance of making the 53 man roster is less than 1 in 5.  Here's what I did:

 

1. Divided the roster by positions. 

2. Estimated the number of players at this position on the "likely 53 man" roster

3. Counted the number of "CURRENT" players at the postion on the 90 man roster

4. Estimated the number of "Locks"  at a given position - (i.e. those players such as Cam, Luke, TD, CJ, J Stew etc... almost certainly guaranteed a position barring unforseen circumstances.)  I included at least 4 of our  draft picks as locks FYI.  I also tended to include the Vets like Peanut Tillman as a lock, but not always.

5. "Current" - "Locks" = "COMPETING" for postitions

6. "Likely 53" - "Locks" = "Spaces Open"

7. "Spaces Open" divided by "Competing Players" = % chance of earning a spot on the 53 man roster.

 

So here's my analysis of the 3 most competitive positions:

 

Defensive Line (DE/DT)

Likely spots on the 53 man roster = 8

Currently on roster = 15

Likely "Locks" to make roster = 7  [CJ, Alexander, Ealy, Dwan Edwards, Colin Cole, Star, Kawann]

That leaves 8 players competing for 1 open spot  (not counting PS).

% chance of making the 53 man roster = 1/8 or 13%

For what it's worth, my guess is that Mario Addison gains the last spot, and that Miley & Cox make the Practice Squad.

 

 

No surprise what the next most contested position is:  Wide Receiver.

I'm calculating that there will be 6 WRs on the 53 man roster

There are currently 12 on the roster.

By my count there are 5 locks  [KB, Funchess, Ginn, Cotchery, Corey Brown = I recognize that others will have different opinions of how likely these are to be locks.  But for now, I assume these all have spots.]

So that leaves 7 players competing for 1 open spot.

% chance of making the roster:  14%

My guess is that Boykin will make the 53 and that Byrd will win a spot on the PS.  The big unknown:  Stephen Hill.

 

 

Finally, the third most competitive position:  OLine - Guard

I expect there will be three guards on the 53 man roster

There are currently 8 on the roster.

I count 2 locks. [Norwell & Turner]

That leaves 6 players competing for 1 spot.

% chance of making the roster:  17%

I think the open spot will go to Amini, and that McCray & Patrick will end up on the PS for now.

 

If folks find this kind of analysis helpful, I'd be glad to share my calculations for each position.

[1989]

No way Tillman doesn't make the team.

[t96]

Colin Jones is my dark horse Panther.  That guy came up HUGE late in games last year.  Can't remember the team, but one play sticks out where he got to the QB, missed, tumbled to the ground, got back up, leaped over another player, and made the tackle.

 

Pretty sure that was on Brees.

[Moorgan]

Until we see players in camp, to some degree these projections are just merely us picking our favorite players at each position.

 

I thought it might be helpful to try and quantify at which positions the most ferocious roster battles are going to shape up.  I found three positions in particular where the chance of making the 53 man roster is less than 1 in 5.  Here's what I did:

 

1. Divided the roster by positions. 

2. Estimated the number of players at this position on the "likely 53 man" roster

3. Counted the number of "CURRENT" players at the postion on the 90 man roster

4. Estimated the number of "Locks"  at a given position - (i.e. those players such as Cam, Luke, TD, CJ, J Stew etc... almost certainly guaranteed a position barring unforseen circumstances.)  I included at least 4 of our  draft picks as locks FYI.  I also tended to include the Vets like Peanut Tillman as a lock, but not always.

5. "Current" - "Locks" = "COMPETING" for postitions

6. "Likely 53" - "Locks" = "Spaces Open"

7. "Spaces Open" divided by "Competing Players" = % chance of earning a spot on the 53 man roster.

 

So here's my analysis of the 3 most competitive positions:

 

Defensive Line (DE/DT)

Likely spots on the 53 man roster = 8

Currently on roster = 15

Likely "Locks" to make roster = 7  [CJ, Alexander, Ealy, Dwan Edwards, Colin Cole, Star, Kawann]

That leaves 8 players competing for 1 open spot  (not counting PS).

% chance of making the 53 man roster = 1/8 or 13%

For what it's worth, my guess is that Mario Addison gains the last spot, and that Miley & Cox make the Practice Squad.

 

 

No surprise what the next most contested position is:  Wide Receiver.

I'm calculating that there will be 6 WRs on the 53 man roster

There are currently 12 on the roster.

By my count there are 5 locks  [KB, Funchess, Ginn, Cotchery, Corey Brown = I recognize that others will have different opinions of how likely these are to be locks.  But for now, I assume these all have spots.]

So that leaves 7 players competing for 1 open spot.

% chance of making the roster:  14%

My guess is that Boykin will make the 53 and that Byrd will win a spot on the PS.  The big unknown:  Stephen Hill.

 

 

Finally, the third most competitive position:  OLine - Guard

I expect there will be three guards on the 53 man roster

There are currently 8 on the roster.

I count 2 locks. [Norwell & Turner]

That leaves 6 players competing for 1 spot.

% chance of making the roster:  17%

I think the open spot will go to Amini, and that McCray & Patrick will end up on the PS for now.

 

If folks find this kind of analysis helpful, I'd be glad to share my calculations for each position.

 

Solid post. Definitely people will debate the "locks". But breaking down but how many open slots and where helps frame the camp battles nicely. I think in this case, I would be more conservative with the locks so as to see who is actually competing. But that's just me.

 

Also I think your predictions are pretty solid.

 

[KB_fan]

EDIT:  Finally got the attachment to work, converting an Excel table into PDF.

 

Here's a table with my estimate of competitiveness by position for the 2015 53 man roster.

 

Panthers Competitiveness by position.pdf

 

 

As noted above, by my calculations the most competitive positions at camp will be:

1. Defensive Line - 8 competing for 1 open space

2. Wide Receiver -  7 competing for 1 open space

3. O Line (Guard) - 6 competing for 1 open space

 

Least competitive postitions

1. Center - No competition that I can see.  I assume both Kalil and Folkerts are locks to make the roster

2. Fullback - I assume that Tolbert's a lock and that Ward will make the PS, thus no cuts.

3. QB:  I'm thinking we'll only carry 2 QBs in which case Webb would get cut, but I recognize his value, in which case this could also be a 0% competition / 0 cuts position. [We'd perhaps have to cut a CB or LB to make room for Webb in my roster scheme...]

[CPF4LIFE]

I can understand Tillman being a question mark because it goes back to what i was saying a while back. Youth is a big reason why we found success at the end of last season, especially in the secondary.   How much does adding a veteran presence on the decline really gonna help us?? Young guys can keep up with young guys. I say if Peters and Byndom prove themselves in camp and pre season..... keep them. We have starters  with experience, they would just be role players anyway so i dont see where Tillman fits yet. Really dont want a Cason situation all over again.

[KB_fan]

I can understand Tillman being a question mark because it goes back to what i was saying a while back. Youth is a big reason why we found success at the end of last season, especially in the secondary.   How much does adding a veteran presence on the decline really gonna help us?? Young guys can keep up with young guys. I say if Peters and Byndom prove themselves in camp and pre season..... keep them. We have starters  with experience, they would just be role players anyway so i dont see where Tillman fits yet. Really dont want a Cason situation all over again.

 

To make room for Tillman, I think we might carry 6 CBs.  It's a lot, but I think he has so much he can teach the rookies.  And with lots of youth, Tillman might not need to play too many downs, helping him avoid injury.

 

Here's how I think CB shakes out:

 

Tillman - Lock

Norman - Lock

Benwikere - Lock

Williams, Teddy - Lock

 

White, Melvin - wins a spot

Young, Lou - wins a spot

Peters - Practice Squad

Byndom, Carrington - Cut

 

Cornerback: If carry 6 CB on 53 man roster

         

There will be 4 players competing for 2 spots.  50% chance of making roster

 

I confess I don't remember much at all about Byndom from last season.  It seems Lou Young was impressing people at rookie camp.  For me it's actually really a toss up whether its Young or Byndom who makes the spot.  I don't really know enough to judge.

[Billy Love]

No AJ Klein? Interesting.

AJ had that great game in San Francisco in 2013...I thought he would've improved and been better last year. However, I think Adarius Blanton out played AJ last year. Now, mayonnaise is in the mix, with great potential.

[SCP]

AJ had that great game in San Francisco in 2013...I thought he would've improved and been better last year. However, I this Adarius Blanton out played AJ last year. Now, mayonnaise is in the mix, with great potential.

True he seemed to trend down. Glanton showed out.