Gettlemagic.

[Ricky Spanish]

Long post

 

I disagree with you for many many reasons I don't even know where to start. I feel like you think it's more important to have a bunch of picks rather than actually use the picks wisely. Is it a mentality of throwing more crap against the wall gives you the better chance of more things sticking? If that's the case I kind of get it, but to me your entire rant is causation v. correlation. Just because you have more picks doesn't mean you will be a better team, case in point, the raiders, rams, browns, etc. 

 

Take a look at the "hit" percentage of picks and I'm sure you'll see the better teams are better at talent evaluation and thus draft more good players throughout the draft and UDFA.

[cbarrier90]

It never fails.

- BPA Draft

- Draft gets panned by critics

- Huddle anti-Gettleman crowd hammers the points from the critics home

- Players contribute

- We look back and realize the draft was very productive

Rinse, wash, repeat.

The board did not fall his way this year as it did in years past, but DG was proactive about it and ended up getting players he wanted that happened to be crucial needs.

As far as the picks were concerned, there was never enough room for nine rookies plus UDFA on this roster, so why not use those picks to trade up?

[ed bell]

Those who were furious about the handling of the Steve Smith situation and refused to get over it are rather easy to spot.

[Tub of Goo]

I echo this link. The GMs this year didn't make barely any mistakes.

The draft is a lot like a poker tourney.

By the 25th hand, dave missed out on a great pot one hand before. While believing he could bait the others GM into a big win, everyone folded and he only got the blinds at 25.

A few more hands are played, in a bold move dave panics and puts 60% of his remaing chips for a hand. BUST! If he only waited, there was a STRONG hand waiting @ 57.......

But daves still in the game, rather than being sad, he doubles down again............ same result- Busted.

Now all he has left are his blinds, he doesn't even look at his cards. Folds each hand,

Game over.

Uh what? What's the strong hand at 57? How do you know Devin and daryl are busts?

I have no problem with him trading picks and getting guys he thinks can be playmakers. Who the hell cares about extra 6th and 7th round bodies in camp when you can go get players you think have the potential to start and have a true impact on your season?

[dos poptarts]

I echo this link. The GMs this year didn't make barely any mistakes.

The draft is a lot like a poker tourney.

By the 25th hand, dave missed out on a great pot one hand before. While believing he could bait the others GM into a big win, everyone folded and he only got the blinds at 25.

A few more hands are played, in a bold move dave panics and puts 60% of his remaing chips for a hand. BUST! If he only waited, there was a STRONG hand waiting @ 57.......

But daves still in the game, rather than being sad, he doubles down again............ same result- Busted.

Now all he has left are his blinds, he doesn't even look at his cards. Folds each hand,

Game over.

 

Just a random draft-nik opinion on the interwebs, but could easily be the reason the Panthers feel Funchess >> Strong.

 

 

 

The drill was blatantly set up for one person to fail. Tell me why the full motion is important? It's just a cop out because you don't know what you're looking at. The most important part of this route is shown. One guy does it very well and smoothly, while the other one is stiff as heck because he doesn't know how to properly run this route.

You can change the speed and watch in in slow motion or frame by frame here: http://gfycat.com/IdolizedQuaintEyas

The game tape of each already paints a clear picture. Funchess' very good hips show up on tape. Strong's stiffness shows up on tape.

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=563417&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0

 

I set out to sync the two routes by their step at the 30-yard mark. It's coincidental that the start off the LOS happened to match as well.

The full route only makes Strong look worse. You can see he "cheats" by turning slightly to his right while breaking down.

Funchess is smoother because he "bounces" his feet and gets his head down while sinking his hips. Strong just keeps his upper body in the same position/posture.

Funchess's head turn is also smoother. It means he's more relaxed. Strong's head turns with his body, while Funchess' body turns with his head.

[Mr. Scot]

It never fails.

- BPA Draft

- Draft gets panned by critics

- Huddle anti-Gettleman crowd hammers the points from the critics home

- Players contribute

- We look back and realize the draft was very productive

Rinse, wash, repeat.

The board did not fall his way this year as it did in years past, but DG was proactive about it and ended up getting players he wanted that happened to be crucial needs.

As far as the picks were concerned, there was never enough room for nine rookies plus UDFA on this roster, so why not use those picks to trade up?

 

You rinse before you wash?

 

 

 

 

 

 

(sorry dude, couldn't resist)

[FootballMaestro]

It might be 'honest' but it ain't insightful. Claiming that Gettleman was desperate and exposed after DJ Humphries was selected is doltish, at best. Nothing about G-Man screams desperate. He had his pick ready the moment the Panthers were on the clock.

 

It's amazing how so many Huddler's get 'all wrapped up' in what others say, who have no idea how the Panthers evaluated these players. 

 

Go figure! SMH

[MV%doe]

Uh what? What's the strong hand at 57? How do you know Devin and daryl are busts?

I have no problem with him trading picks and getting guys he thinks can be playmakers. Who the hell cares about extra 6th and 7th round bodies in camp when you can go get players you think have the potential to start and have a true impact on your season?

Strong hand at 57 was jalen strong a similar WR.

The bust part is dave preached about not panicing and play the waiting game. He panic twice, thus putting much more pressure since he traded 6 for 2. We'll if he busted or not in about one full year+ for now.

6/7 are as good as UDFA without competing against 31 other teams. I'm fairly sure neither was BPA either, another dave preaching that he didn't do. No biggie.

[MV%doe]

Good stuff dos pop, I agree funch does comes out breaks good if not great for a man his size. I also believe strong could be coached up and improve that part of his game too.

I heard lots of teams where pissed that strong passed on re-exam of his wrist. Still zod, who showed his insider muscles at one point they had a high grade if not first on their scale. Besides would you trade funch for strong +3rd+6th..... gimmie the strong package all-day.

[KSpan]

Strong hand at 57 was jalen strong a similar WR.

The bust part is dave preached about not panicing and play the waiting game. He panic twice, thus putting much more pressure since he traded 6 for 2. We'll if he busted or not in about one full year+ for now.

6/7 are as good as UDFA without competing against 31 other teams. I'm fairly sure neither was BPA either, another dave preaching that he didn't do. No biggie.

DG had a bunch of low picks to play with that the team arguably didn't need, especially since you just comapred them to UDFA, and the board played out in the worst way possible. There is a big difference between panicking and being realistic and playing the hand you're dealt, and he definitely did not panic.

[Tub of Goo]

Strong hand at 57 was jalen strong a similar WR.

The bust part is dave preached about not panicing and play the waiting game. He panic twice, thus putting much more pressure since he traded 6 for 2. We'll if he busted or not in about one full year+ for now.

6/7 are as good as UDFA without competing against 31 other teams. I'm fairly sure neither was BPA either, another dave preaching that he didn't do. No biggie.

 

Kind of ironic you said 'strong hand' about the guy who has a fractured wrist bone lol.  He denies he needs surgery, but would not get it re-evaluated hence the slide and frustration from GMs. 

 

And Gman said in his interview they had their eye on five guys to start round 2, but said they were getting picked and he was worried that none would be left at 57. I don't think that's panicking, I wouldn't want him to just sit on his hands for no reason, he was aggressive for a player he really wanted and had a round 1 grade on. Made it pretty obvious he's more than willing to support Cam with talent. 

 

He definitely didn't panic for Daryl either, considering he had the entire night and morning to think about what he wanted to do in rd 4. They were BPA on his board so that part is irrelevant, in his mind he got 2 firsts, 1 third and 2 fives. I trust em. 

[MV%doe]

Kind of ironic you said 'strong hand' about the guy who has a fractured wrist bone lol. He denies he needs surgery, but would not get it re-evaluated hence the slide and frustration from GMs.

And Gman said in his interview they had their eye on five guys to start round 2, but said they were getting picked and he was worried that none would be left at 57. I don't think that's panicking, I wouldn't want him to just sit on his hands for no reason, he was aggressive for a player he really wanted and had a round 1 grade on. Made it pretty obvious he's more than willing to support Cam with talent.

He definitely didn't panic for Daryl either, considering he had the entire night and morning to think about what he wanted to do in rd 4. They were BPA on his board so that part is irrelevant, in his mind he got 2 firsts, 1 third and 2 fives. I trust em.

Dave did what he felt was right. It was just a super odd draft and dave did some out of char moves imo. Dave also said those out of those 16 teams (between 41-57 ) seven needed a WR........... guess what......no one drafted one between those picks. Who knows IF funch COULD have "fell" to 57. Dave didn't believe so he made the deal.

Like I said before the GMs this year where smarter than past years. Dave could gotten strong@57 AND daryl with the third without giving up ANY picks. But that's the dumb what if game. Truly the current and new GMs did great and cleaned up daves big board it seems. Add that to a meh draft class filled with 3-4 DLmen and other bad fits, I see daves line of thinking.

[CPantherKing]

I disagree with you for many many reasons I don't even know where to start. I feel like you think it's more important to have a bunch of picks rather than actually use the picks wisely. Is it a mentality of throwing more crap against the wall gives you the better chance of more things sticking? If that's the case I kind of get it, but to me your entire rant is causation v. correlation. Just because you have more picks doesn't mean you will be a better team, case in point, the raiders, rams, browns, etc. 

 

Take a look at the "hit" percentage of picks and I'm sure you'll see the better teams are better at talent evaluation and thus draft more good players throughout the draft and UDFA.

 

I am looking at the draft as a matrix to everything else a team can do in the league. It is not "hit" percentage that they do so well in. They succeed because of player retention, competition, specialization, insurance against injury, and minimizing the use of free agency to focus on key players.

 

There are limits placed on every team with the resources they can use, and they can only use these resources in the draft and in free agency.

Without going into a break down on resource and production analysis, you have to assign values to everything that directly relates to what is cap production in the NFL. There are limits to production in the NFL due to the limitations within the constraints of the game.

The draft gives a team more control over the build of their team. The competition in free agency as well as the cap limits create a less effective mode of building a team - especially the depth.

You know you have 53 players on a roster. You know a free agent stays with a team for 1 to 3 seasons. A draft pick stays with a team for 4 to 5 seasons. You know every player contributes to a team at different rates. Now think of retention. What gives you the better return on production?

Knowing that a team will carry over 70 to 80% of their draft picks to opening day rosters, how many picks must you average per year to be labeled a team that builds through the draft?

If you were to average 5 picks per season you will never stock your team to 50% on draft picks. A team will hover between 15 and 25%. Averaging 7 picks will put you close to the 40 to 50% range. The mark to hit is at least 8. Otherwise you rely on free agency to carry your team. Currently, the Panthers are less than 20% of drafted players on their roster, and there are only a few teams lower. The trend of drafted players on the Panthers is declining, and this will catch up sooner rather than later - not to mention this sets a team back 10 to 20 years when left unchecked for 3 to 5 seasons. All this cap cleaning will be for nothing when you have to fill a team with free agents, rather than using the cap space to leverage just a handful of more talented free agents - impact players.

Just remember, 1 injured player with a 5 pick draft sets a team back significantly more than a draft class with 8 to 10 picks.

This goes beyond just hitting on 2 or 3 players a draft. This is the lifeblood of a team due to the salary cap the NFL employs and the market price on free agents.

 

I would gladly give a team the top 3 picks in the draft while capping them at 3 picks per year. Meanwhile, I will take 15 picks a season from rounds 3 to 5 - never drafting in the 1st or 2nd round. No question what franchise will have greater long term success. Especially, when the 15 pick team is using you as a farm system and grabbing the picks you do not retain after 4 to 5 seasons as a 2 to 3 year role player. I would only need to sign 2 or 3 free agents a season, and you know I will be waiting for you to let 1 of yours go every year.

 

My team will be stocked and ready to go in 2 to 3 seasons - 1 season if I get lucky. Your team would be stocked in about 8 to 10 seasons - 5 if you get lucky.

[IamSoClutch]

I still stand by my assessment of Gettleman: Excellent talent evaluator/scout; horrible GM.

If you are blindly in love with Gettleman and believe hope is the way to go when running a successful organization, please stop reading now. This will hurt your heart and may dash your visions of Gettlemagic. For those who wonder about some of the actions of the front office, read on with a critical perspective. Personally, I need to put this out there into the world (wide web) to open some eyes, or to get generously smacked in the face with a dead fish as I realize I missed a significant point.

You cannot create a consistent championship contender in the NFL averaging 5 picks per draft (dead last among all GMs). It will never happen. You have to use the draft to stock your team with talent. Not udfa and journeymen free agents.

He only has to hit on his first round pick with 5 picks to get a 20% success rate. 20-25% is the conversion rate for the better GMs in the NFL, but they are dealing in double the draft/talent volume compared to Gettleman.

The champions have proven you need to average more than 8 picks per season minimum to keep that talent rolling year in and year out. Draft picks are the biggest resource for an NFL team. That goes to stocking depth, trading for players like the Seahawks did with Jimmy Graham, hitting on the Tom Brady/Antonio Smith picks in the 6th round, and leveraging your players in contract negotiations. You need to finish on top in the value of your draft picks to keep a franchise on top of the NFL. Currently the Panthers are in a deficit regarding loss of value on draft picks. This is much bigger than managing the salary cap. Gettleman just does not get it.

Great talent evaluator who has a horrible business plan when it comes to contract negotiations, the draft as a system, personnel matters, and the use of free agency. Some team has to come out on top with those resources known as draft picks. It always ends up being the Ravens, Patriots, Packers, Steelers, and now the Seahawks. They play GMs like Gettleman to take the resource advantage in the NFL.

Simply put, It will take Gettleman 5 seasons averaging 9 picks per draft to make up for this talent deficit he has created for the Panthers - 3 seasons if he continues the successes of finding talent. This is more devastating over the long run than anything the salary cap can do to a team. He is throwing away draft picks.

Using a system that assigns value to draft picks, the average 7 pick draft has 16 points (representative of the % of production a rookie class has on average for a team given 100 points for an entire team).

The Panthers have had a total of 51.7 points from the past 3 drafts based on the picks. The 15 picks Gettleman has netted over 3 seasons total 41.7 points. A loss of 10 points. When you consider 7 points is the value of a top 10 pick and 4 points is the value of a 25th to 30th pick, you can see the net loss equals the value of throwing 2 first round picks away. It all adds up. Anyone who invests in business knows about ROI.

To the point of praising Gettleman's ability to pick a player he has converted a value of 47.6 points from these 15 picks. So, he nets a very impressive gain based on the picks he has made. The problem is he is still 4.1 points in the hole. That is a late first round value.

In comparison, I will use Belichick who I consider the gold standard. Now he is a system genius, which is why I use him because I believe his talent evaluation is average. Belichick uses the economic systems of the NFL very well. He had a draft pick value of 42.9 points from the past 3 drafts. He turned that into 52.4 points for a net gain of 9.5 points - the equivalent of 2 first round draft picks. This is how a team who never goes to the Super Bowl loses first round value while a team who always goes to the Super Bowl gains first round value.

This is the currency of the NFL. Belichick likes to work on Wall Street while Gettleman likes to find the dollar store bargains and enjoys flipping beat up pieces of junk. You can beam all you want about how he is so good at evaluating talent, I agree 180%, but a GM employs those talent evaluators while working the system. A head scouting director focuses solely on finding the talent. A head chef may be great in the kitchen, but that does not mean he can expand the business as the restaurant's GM.

This is more serious than any salary cap issue in the long run, and I think too many people are fooled by the show ponies he trots out. Screwing up the salary cap will set you back 2 to 3 seasons. Screwing up the draft as a system of resources is exponential and will set you back 10 to 20 years.

For those of you who have read this far, you have been warned about the future.

Now, go revel in the draft picks and party it up, because Gettleman has found some very good players once again. It is always fun to see what will be come September. The team just needs to beat the Seahawks and Packers consistently, and it looks like that is what their draft strategy is geared toward. Can not wait to see the passing game and the 3 LBs flashing around the field making plays.