Gettlemagic.

[fjblair]

 

http://www.news-record.com/sports/carolinapanthers/ed-hardin-with-nfl-draft-over-panthers-looking-to-fill/article_ba24447e-f127-11e4-8065-abca0b75c3f1.html

 

Pretty honest draft recap by Ed Hardin:

 

 

 

 

 

In other words, a bust?

[top dawg]

I still stand by my assessment of Gettleman: Excellent talent evaluator/scout; horrible GM.

If you are blindly in love with Gettleman and believe hope is the way to go when running a successful organization, please stop reading now. This will hurt your heart and may dash your visions of Gettlemagic. For those who wonder about some of the actions of the front office, read on with a critical perspective. Personally, I need to put this out there into the world (wide web) to open some eyes, or to get generously smacked in the face with a dead fish as I realize I missed a significant point.

You cannot create a consistent championship contender in the NFL averaging 5 picks per draft (dead last among all GMs). It will never happen. You have to use the draft to stock your team with talent. Not udfa and journeymen free agents.

He only has to hit on his first round pick with 5 picks to get a 20% success rate. 20-25% is the conversion rate for the better GMs in the NFL, but they are dealing in double the draft/talent volume compared to Gettleman.

The champions have proven you need to average more than 8 picks per season minimum to keep that talent rolling year in and year out. Draft picks are the biggest resource for an NFL team. That goes to stocking depth, trading for players like the Seahawks did with Jimmy Graham, hitting on the Tom Brady/Antonio Smith picks in the 6th round, and leveraging your players in contract negotiations. You need to finish on top in the value of your draft picks to keep a franchise on top of the NFL. Currently the Panthers are in a deficit regarding loss of value on draft picks. This is much bigger than managing the salary cap. Gettleman just does not get it.

Great talent evaluator who has a horrible business plan when it comes to contract negotiations, the draft as a system, personnel matters, and the use of free agency. Some team has to come out on top with those resources known as draft picks. It always ends up being the Ravens, Patriots, Packers, Steelers, and now the Seahawks. They play GMs like Gettleman to take the resource advantage in the NFL.

Simply put, It will take Gettleman 5 seasons averaging 9 picks per draft to make up for this talent deficit he has created for the Panthers - 3 seasons if he continues the successes of finding talent. This is more devastating over the long run than anything the salary cap can do to a team. He is throwing away draft picks.

Using a system that assigns value to draft picks, the average 7 pick draft has 16 points (representative of the % of production a rookie class has on average for a team given 100 points for an entire team).

The Panthers have had a total of 51.7 points from the past 3 drafts based on the picks. The 15 picks Gettleman has netted over 3 seasons total 41.7 points. A loss of 10 points. When you consider 7 points is the value of a top 10 pick and 4 points is the value of a 25th to 30th pick, you can see the net loss equals the value of throwing 2 first round picks away. It all adds up. Anyone who invests in business knows about ROI.

To the point of praising Gettleman's ability to pick a player he has converted a value of 47.6 points from these 15 picks. So, he nets a very impressive gain based on the picks he has made. The problem is he is still 4.1 points in the hole. That is a late first round value.

In comparison, I will use Belichick who I consider the gold standard. Now he is a system genius, which is why I use him because I believe his talent evaluation is average. Belichick uses the economic systems of the NFL very well. He had a draft pick value of 42.9 points from the past 3 drafts. He turned that into 52.4 points for a net gain of 9.5 points - the equivalent of 2 first round draft picks. This is how a team who never goes to the Super Bowl loses first round value while a team who always goes to the Super Bowl gains first round value.

This is the currency of the NFL. Belichick likes to work on Wall Street while Gettleman likes to find the dollar store bargains and enjoys flipping beat up pieces of junk. You can beam all you want about how he is so good at evaluating talent, I agree 180%, but a GM employs those talent evaluators while working the system. A head scouting director focuses solely on finding the talent. A head chef may be great in the kitchen, but that does not mean he can expand the business as the restaurant's GM.

This is more serious than any salary cap issue in the long run, and I think too many people are fooled by the show ponies he trots out. Screwing up the salary cap will set you back 2 to 3 seasons. Screwing up the draft as a system of resources is exponential and will set you back 10 to 20 years.

For those of you who have read this far, you have been warned about the future.

Now, go revel in the draft picks and party it up, because Gettleman has found some very good players once again. It is always fun to see what will be come September. The team just needs to beat the Seahawks and Packers consistently, and it looks like that is what their draft strategy is geared toward. Can not wait to see the passing game and the 3 LBs flashing around the field making plays.

Not saying that I agree with you on this because I don't think that any one formula is so cut and dried in reference to success. But, it was a good read, and is definitely good for thought.

In fitting with my contention of everything being so black and white in reference to team building (which if course speaks to overall franchise building), I think that one has to have the ability to adapt. Sure there are some things that are fundamental to any successful organization, but the thing that makes someone like Bill Belichick so successful is his ability to adapt on the fly, while also sticking to your core principles for the most part. I just don't believe that there is one way to the promised land, but different variations surrounding those core beliefs. I think that Gman, or any man, may be able to lead us to where we want to be with five picks here or there. It just depends upon the circumstances at that point in time. At some other point in time, it may take drafting all your picks for many years in a row. It's a judgement call.

My thing with Gman is that this is only his third draft. He is still a relatively new GM, albeit seemingly set in his ways, so I am still going to give him some latitude. At this point, Gman's ability to adapt or tweak his philosophy when necessary is suspect in my humble opinion in reference to team building. I mean the guy just appears to be dogmatic when it comes to his personnel beliefs (hence a likely UDFA LB drafted in the 5th), but time will tell if his seeming dogma translates to championships.

[pantherclaw]

Gettleman has zero problems bringing in talent.

Thanks for your concern though.

[The NFL Shield At Midfield]

As for CPanther, he's a notorious Gettle-Hater.

Opinion Invalid.

 

i have to at least give him credit for giving us something to chew on rather than the usual "gettleman ruined a 12-4 team bawww steve smith cam hates it here" drivel

[CPantherKing]

I am led to believe Gettleman wanted the picks. Good to know.

[MV%doe]

http://www.news-record.com/sports/carolinapanthers/ed-hardin-with-nfl-draft-over-panthers-looking-to-fill/article_ba24447e-f127-11e4-8065-abca0b75c3f1.html

Pretty honest draft recap by Ed Hardin:

I echo this link. The GMs this year didn't make barely any mistakes.

The draft is a lot like a poker tourney.

By the 25th hand, dave missed out on a great pot one hand before. While believing he could bait the others GM into a big win, everyone folded and he only got the blinds at 25.

A few more hands are played, in a bold move dave panics and puts 60% of his remaing chips for a hand. BUST! If he only waited, there was a STRONG hand waiting @ 57.......

But daves still in the game, rather than being sad, he doubles down again............ same result- Busted.

Now all he has left are his blinds, he doesn't even look at his cards. Folds each hand,

Game over.

[BigCat]

I still stand by my assessment of Gettleman: Excellent talent evaluator/scout; horrible GM.

If you are blindly in love with Gettleman and believe hope is the way to go when running a successful organization, please stop reading now. This will hurt your heart and may dash your visions of Gettlemagic. For those who wonder about some of the actions of the front office, read on with a critical perspective. Personally, I need to put this out there into the world (wide web) to open some eyes, or to get generously smacked in the face with a dead fish as I realize I missed a significant point.

You cannot create a consistent championship contender in the NFL averaging 5 picks per draft (dead last among all GMs). It will never happen. You have to use the draft to stock your team with talent. Not udfa and journeymen free agents.

He only has to hit on his first round pick with 5 picks to get a 20% success rate. 20-25% is the conversion rate for the better GMs in the NFL, but they are dealing in double the draft/talent volume compared to Gettleman.

The champions have proven you need to average more than 8 picks per season minimum to keep that talent rolling year in and year out. Draft picks are the biggest resource for an NFL team. That goes to stocking depth, trading for players like the Seahawks did with Jimmy Graham, hitting on the Tom Brady/Antonio Smith picks in the 6th round, and leveraging your players in contract negotiations. You need to finish on top in the value of your draft picks to keep a franchise on top of the NFL. Currently the Panthers are in a deficit regarding loss of value on draft picks. This is much bigger than managing the salary cap. Gettleman just does not get it.

Great talent evaluator who has a horrible business plan when it comes to contract negotiations, the draft as a system, personnel matters, and the use of free agency. Some team has to come out on top with those resources known as draft picks. It always ends up being the Ravens, Patriots, Packers, Steelers, and now the Seahawks. They play GMs like Gettleman to take the resource advantage in the NFL.

Simply put, It will take Gettleman 5 seasons averaging 9 picks per draft to make up for this talent deficit he has created for the Panthers - 3 seasons if he continues the successes of finding talent. This is more devastating over the long run than anything the salary cap can do to a team. He is throwing away draft picks.

Using a system that assigns value to draft picks, the average 7 pick draft has 16 points (representative of the % of production a rookie class has on average for a team given 100 points for an entire team).

The Panthers have had a total of 51.7 points from the past 3 drafts based on the picks. The 15 picks Gettleman has netted over 3 seasons total 41.7 points. A loss of 10 points. When you consider 7 points is the value of a top 10 pick and 4 points is the value of a 25th to 30th pick, you can see the net loss equals the value of throwing 2 first round picks away. It all adds up. Anyone who invests in business knows about ROI.

To the point of praising Gettleman's ability to pick a player he has converted a value of 47.6 points from these 15 picks. So, he nets a very impressive gain based on the picks he has made. The problem is he is still 4.1 points in the hole. That is a late first round value.

In comparison, I will use Belichick who I consider the gold standard. Now he is a system genius, which is why I use him because I believe his talent evaluation is average. Belichick uses the economic systems of the NFL very well. He had a draft pick value of 42.9 points from the past 3 drafts. He turned that into 52.4 points for a net gain of 9.5 points - the equivalent of 2 first round draft picks. This is how a team who never goes to the Super Bowl loses first round value while a team who always goes to the Super Bowl gains first round value.

This is the currency of the NFL. Belichick likes to work on Wall Street while Gettleman likes to find the dollar store bargains and enjoys flipping beat up pieces of junk. You can beam all you want about how he is so good at evaluating talent, I agree 180%, but a GM employs those talent evaluators while working the system. A head scouting director focuses solely on finding the talent. A head chef may be great in the kitchen, but that does not mean he can expand the business as the restaurant's GM.

This is more serious than any salary cap issue in the long run, and I think too many people are fooled by the show ponies he trots out. Screwing up the salary cap will set you back 2 to 3 seasons. Screwing up the draft as a system of resources is exponential and will set you back 10 to 20 years.

For those of you who have read this far, you have been warned about the future.

Now, go revel in the draft picks and party it up, because Gettleman has found some very good players once again. It is always fun to see what will be come September. The team just needs to beat the Seahawks and Packers consistently, and it looks like that is what their draft strategy is geared toward. Can not wait to see the passing game and the 3 LBs flashing around the field making plays.

You've written a well thought out post of your feelings on Gettleman. As I ask when someone express there self in such a manner, have you ever managed a budget large or small? If so, did you make all the right choices in managing the budget? I'm not saying I trust all of Gettleman's acquisitions by no means, what I'm saying is his hit on more than he's missed. True there are some Great GMs in the league, but most are just average. I think Gettleman is one of the better GMs in the league. The process he's establishing isn't an overnight success, it's going to take some highs and lows to ready a steady constancy.

[pstall]

Best post i have seen in years. Absolutely on the money.

This is what i was getting at on that wr thread tiger87 started and linville gorge was chiming in.

The ability to properly apply a value to a pick will always net you more talent. He mentioned teams i always refer to that own the draft. I would include the Ravens as well.

Like i mentioned the Cowboys in the Jimmy Johnson era.

I agree Dave does well but he top loads his picks meaning by having fewer he will go for low lying fruit in the early rounds that can sorta mask the lack of hits in the later rounds. It may not even be on purpose but i think this is what he does.

The on the cheap though i think comes from the top of the house.

But hopefully all the guys do well.

[Mr. Scot]

Best post i have seen in years. Absolutely on the money.

This is what i was getting at on that wr thread tiger87 started and linville gorge was chiming in.

The ability to properly apply a value to a pick will always net you more talent. He mentioned teams i always refer to that own the draft. I would include the Ravens as well.

Like i mentioned the Cowboys in the Jimmy Johnson era.

I agree Dave does well but he top loads his picks meaning by having fewer he will go for low lying fruit in the early rounds that can sorta mask the lack of hits in the later rounds. It may not even be on purpose but i think this is what he does.

The on the cheap though i think comes from the top of the house.

But hopefully all the guys do well.

 

I'm not sure that analysis makes any sense given that this is the first time Gettleman has traded up in higher rounds.  It's not like this is an annual thing.

 

As has been said before, the reason they went for fewer, higher picks in this draft was because (as Gettleman mentioned pre-draft) they didn't believe nine rookies could make the current roster.  Making fewer picks meant they got guys they really wanted and who they felt had a better chance of making the team.

 

"Cheap" doesn't really apply either since the cap hits for draft picks these days are significantly lower under the new system.  Depending on the overall value, trading into higher slots than where they started could conceivably mean they're paying more than they might have otherwise (though if there is a difference, I doubt it's significant).

[pstall]

I agree on the roster part but competition is always good. That could go either way honestly.

When i say cheap im not saying dollars towards the cap but the value index of a player that of course will have costs later.

OP is totally correct on avg # of picks per draft and what it can equate too.

Im very curious to see Dave's board and how he ranked o linemen vs lb's and hiw BPA was applied.

[Mr. Scot]

I agree on the roster part but competition is always good. That could go either way honestly.

When i say cheap im not saying dollars towards the cap but the value index of a player that of course will have costs later.

OP is totally correct on avg # of picks per draft and what it can equate too.

Im very curious to see Dave's board and how he ranked o linemen vs lb's and hiw BPA was applied.

 

Mentioned elsewhere, but someone used the old 'draft value chart' to calculate the trades we did.

 

In both cases, we got more back than we gave.

[pstall]

We will see.

[CPantherKing]

Mentioned elsewhere, but someone used the old 'draft value chart' to calculate the trades we did.

 

In both cases, we got more back than we gave.

 

Each draft consists of 256 players for 32 teams. An even share of 8 players per team. Figure out who is above this line and who is below this line over the past 15 years and you will see a distinct pattern.

 

That chart (which is obsolete and arbitrary) gives the Panthers a total value of 4394.3 for their picks - 23 in total. After trades, the Panthers take is 4214 for 16 picks. A net loss of 179.9 points, which is equivalent to an early 3rd round pick. Once you factor in non-productive draft picks the value drops to 4108 for a difference of 286.3 points which is a late 2nd round pick. I just wanted to illustrate that even with an old arbitrary value system the Panthers still have a deficit. So, yes the team has left value on the table.

[carolinarolls]

He wrong.

He make me have to adjust my scroll settings.