Gettlemagic.

[NJPanthers12]

I still stand by my assessment of Gettleman: Excellent talent evaluator/scout; horrible GM.

 

If you are blindly in love with Gettleman and believe hope is the way to go when running a successful organization, please stop reading now. This will hurt your heart and may dash your visions of Gettlemagic. For those who wonder about some of the actions of the front office, read on with a critical perspective. Personally, I need to put this out there into the world (wide web) to open some eyes, or to get generously smacked in the face with a dead fish as I realize I missed a significant point. 

 

You cannot create a consistent championship contender in the NFL averaging 5 picks per draft (dead last among all GMs). It will never happen. You have to use the draft to stock your team with talent. Not udfa and journeymen free agents.

 

He only has to hit on his first round pick with 5 picks to get a 20% success rate. 20-25% is the conversion rate for the better GMs in the NFL, but they are dealing in double the draft/talent volume compared to Gettleman.

 

The champions have proven you need to average more than 8 picks per season minimum to keep that talent rolling year in and year out. Draft picks are the biggest resource for an NFL team. That goes to stocking depth, trading for players like the Seahawks did with Jimmy Graham, hitting on the Tom Brady/Antonio Smith picks in the 6th round, and leveraging your players in contract negotiations. You need to finish on top in the value of your draft picks to keep a franchise on top of the NFL. Currently the Panthers are in a deficit regarding loss of value on draft picks. This is much bigger than managing the salary cap. Gettleman just does not get it.

 

Great talent evaluator who has a horrible business plan when it comes to contract negotiations, the draft as a system, personnel matters, and the use of free agency. Some team has to come out on top with those resources known as draft picks. It always ends up being the Ravens, Patriots, Packers, Steelers, and now the Seahawks. They play GMs like Gettleman to take the resource advantage in the NFL.

 

Simply, put It will take him 5 seasons averaging 9 picks per draft to make up for this talent deficit he has created for the Panthers - 3 seasons if he continues the successes of finding talent. This is more devastating over the long run than anything the salary cap can do to a team. He is throwing away draft picks.

 

Using a system that assigns value to draft picks, the average 7 pick draft has 16 points (representative of the % of production a rookie class has on average for a team given 100 points for an entire team).

 

The Panthers have had a total of 51.7 points from the past 3 drafts based on the picks. The 15 picks Gettleman has netted over 3 seasons total 41.7 points. A loss of 10 points. When you consider 7 points is the value of a top 10 pick and 4 points is the value of a 25th to 30th pick, you can see the net loss equals the value of throwing 2 first round picks away. It all adds up. Anyone who invests in business knows about ROI.

 

To the point of praising Gettleman's ability to pick a player he has converted a value of 47.6 points from these 15 picks. So, he nets a very impressive gain based on the picks he has made. The problem is he is still 4.1 points in the hole. That is a late first round value.

 

In comparison, I will use Belichick who I consider the gold standard. Now he is a system genius, which is why I use him because I believe his talent evaluation is average. Belichick uses the economic systems of the NFL very well. He had a draft pick value of 42.9 points from the past 3 drafts. He turned that into 52.4 points for a net gain of 9.5 points - the equivalent of 2 first round draft picks. This is how a team who never goes to the Super Bowl loses first round value while a team who always goes to the Super Bowl gains first round value.

 

This is the currency of the NFL. Belichick likes to work on wall street while Gettleman likes to find the dollar store bargains and flipping beat up pieces of junk. You can beam all you want about how he is so good at evaluating talent, I agree 180%, but a GM employs those talent evaluators while working the system. A head scouting director focuses solely on finding the talent. A head chef may be great in the kitchen, but that does not mean he can expand the business as the restaurant's GM.

 

This is more serious than any salary cap issue in the long run, and I think too many people are fooled by the show ponies he trots out. Screwing up the salary cap will set you back 2 to 3 seasons. Screwing up the draft as a system of resources is exponential and will set you back 10 to 20 years.

 

For those of you who have read this far, you have been warned about the future.

 

this quite honestly might be one the dumbest things i have ever read on this board. i have been sitting here for 5 minutes typing and then deleting what i just wrote. i honestly don't have the slightest idea where to begin with this. lets not even mention that you didn't take into account any UDFA who have made the roster like Philly Brown, Andrew Norwell, Adarius Glanton, Wes Horton, Robert Lester, Mike Remmers, etc that have made impacts on playoff teams, which would raise whatever point system you are working with. You have also determined after 3 drafts (one in which picks were traded away before he got here) will set back this franchise 20 years which is ludicrous. 

[The NFL Shield At Midfield]

i've seen other people defer to the draft pick value system before.  the way you're using it you're assuming that a pick has a certain value without actually taking into account how the player that's actually selected with it performs.  shouldn't teams like the bucs, raiders, jaguars, browns, and rams be perennial playoff contenders using that system?  i mean the rams were absolutely pissing gold when it came to valuable picks after the RGIII trade.  that's an important component to it that seemingly isn't being considered.

 

if gettleman can get similar on-field production out of fewer picks then i don't think it matters that much.  if an olympic archer and an amateur are told to hit a target four times and the olympian achieves the task after shooting six arrows while the amateur needs ten is it fair to penalize the first guy?

[Mr. Scot]

i've seen other people defer to the draft pick value system before.  the way you're using it you're assuming that a pick has a certain value without actually taking into account how the player that's actually selected with it performs.  shouldn't teams like the bucs, raiders, jaguars, browns, and rams be perennial playoff contenders using that system?  i mean the rams were absolutely pissing gold when it came to valuable picks after the RGIII trade.  that's an important component to it that seemingly isn't being considered.

 

if gettleman can get similar on-field production out of fewer picks then i don't think it matters that much.  if an olympic archer and an amateur are told to hit a target four times and the olympian achieves the task after shooting six arrows while the amateur needs ten is it fair to penalize the first guy?

 

Someone (Rodeo, I think) calculated the value of the trades Gettleman made in this draft using that chart.

 

In both cases, we got more value than we gave up.

[mattnasty919]

I still stand by my assessment of Gettleman: Excellent talent evaluator/scout; horrible GM.

If you are blindly in love with Gettleman and believe hope is the way to go when running a successful organization, please stop reading now. This will hurt your heart and may dash your visions of Gettlemagic. For those who wonder about some of the actions of the front office, read on with a critical perspective. Personally, I need to put this out there into the world (wide web) to open some eyes, or to get generously smacked in the face with a dead fish as I realize I missed a significant point.

You cannot create a consistent championship contender in the NFL averaging 5 picks per draft (dead last among all GMs). It will never happen. You have to use the draft to stock your team with talent. Not udfa and journeymen free agents.

He only has to hit on his first round pick with 5 picks to get a 20% success rate. 20-25% is the conversion rate for the better GMs in the NFL, but they are dealing in double the draft/talent volume compared to Gettleman.

The champions have proven you need to average more than 8 picks per season minimum to keep that talent rolling year in and year out. Draft picks are the biggest resource for an NFL team. That goes to stocking depth, trading for players like the Seahawks did with Jimmy Graham, hitting on the Tom Brady/Antonio Smith picks in the 6th round, and leveraging your players in contract negotiations. You need to finish on top in the value of your draft picks to keep a franchise on top of the NFL. Currently the Panthers are in a deficit regarding loss of value on draft picks. This is much bigger than managing the salary cap. Gettleman just does not get it.

Great talent evaluator who has a horrible business plan when it comes to contract negotiations, the draft as a system, personnel matters, and the use of free agency. Some team has to come out on top with those resources known as draft picks. It always ends up being the Ravens, Patriots, Packers, Steelers, and now the Seahawks. They play GMs like Gettleman to take the resource advantage in the NFL.

Simply put, It will take Gettleman 5 seasons averaging 9 picks per draft to make up for this talent deficit he has created for the Panthers - 3 seasons if he continues the successes of finding talent. This is more devastating over the long run than anything the salary cap can do to a team. He is throwing away draft picks.

Using a system that assigns value to draft picks, the average 7 pick draft has 16 points (representative of the % of production a rookie class has on average for a team given 100 points for an entire team).

The Panthers have had a total of 51.7 points from the past 3 drafts based on the picks. The 15 picks Gettleman has netted over 3 seasons total 41.7 points. A loss of 10 points. When you consider 7 points is the value of a top 10 pick and 4 points is the value of a 25th to 30th pick, you can see the net loss equals the value of throwing 2 first round picks away. It all adds up. Anyone who invests in business knows about ROI.

To the point of praising Gettleman's ability to pick a player he has converted a value of 47.6 points from these 15 picks. So, he nets a very impressive gain based on the picks he has made. The problem is he is still 4.1 points in the hole. That is a late first round value.

In comparison, I will use Belichick who I consider the gold standard. Now he is a system genius, which is why I use him because I believe his talent evaluation is average. Belichick uses the economic systems of the NFL very well. He had a draft pick value of 42.9 points from the past 3 drafts. He turned that into 52.4 points for a net gain of 9.5 points - the equivalent of 2 first round draft picks. This is how a team who never goes to the Super Bowl loses first round value while a team who always goes to the Super Bowl gains first round value.

This is the currency of the NFL. Belichick likes to work on Wall Street while Gettleman likes to find the dollar store bargains and enjoys flipping beat up pieces of junk. You can beam all you want about how he is so good at evaluating talent, I agree 180%, but a GM employs those talent evaluators while working the system. A head scouting director focuses solely on finding the talent. A head chef may be great in the kitchen, but that does not mean he can expand the business as the restaurant's GM.

This is more serious than any salary cap issue in the long run, and I think too many people are fooled by the show ponies he trots out. Screwing up the salary cap will set you back 2 to 3 seasons. Screwing up the draft as a system of resources is exponential and will set you back 10 to 20 years.

For those of you who have read this far, you have been warned about the future.

Now, go revel in the draft picks and party it up, because Gettleman has found some very good players once again. It is always fun to see what will be come September. The team just needs to beat the Seahawks and Packers consistently, and it looks like that is what their draft strategy is geared toward. Can not wait to see the passing game and the 3 LBs flashing around the field making plays.

Not a completely true statement, but I would tend to agree more picks is better than less(duh?).Sure it holds true for the seahawks, 49ers, pats and a few other good teams at or near the top.. But examine many of the other teams with 40+ picks over the last 5 seasons. Oakland, Houston, Philly, Rams, Vikings,etc (none of which have been championship teams).

A sheer volume of picks does not equal success. Its a calculated crap shoot. You have to hit on a majority those picks, which Gettleman has done in his 2 previous drafts. If we have 5 picks, and got on 4 players, I consider it a better draft than having 10 picks and hitting on 3 players. Just my .02

For reference: http://nypost.com/2015/04/25/an-exhaustive-ranking-of-every-nfl-teams-draft-haul-since-2010/

[Panthers8969]

oh come on, don't be a drive by shitposting bitch. it's a legit concern about losing possible depth. still think that the trade ups we've done under G-man (besides funchess) are great though.

Exactly. This dude spent probably 10+mins writing up a well thought out review of DG and people diss him without even reading it. I'd much rather have people make smart criticisms than blindly agree with everything and flame everyone that doesn't to the same.

[Leeroy Jenkins PhD]

http://www.news-record.com/sports/carolinapanthers/ed-hardin-with-nfl-draft-over-panthers-looking-to-fill/article_ba24447e-f127-11e4-8065-abca0b75c3f1.html

 

Pretty honest draft recap by Ed Hardin:

 

They could do nothing and hope a tackle fell to them at No. 25 or they could trade up, using some of the nine picks they had when Thursday began.

 

They chose the former.

 

When the last decent tackle fell from the board at No. 24, the Panthers were exposed.

 

Gettleman would later say they had left tackle D.J. Humphries and the athletic Shaq Thompson as the next two names on their board when the Cardinals announced Humphries as 24th pick. So the Panthers took the next player on their list.

Thompson is a linebacker. Now you can make any argument you want to, but there’s no arguing that Carolina was already set at linebacker. In fact, the Panthers needed more linebackers like Charlotte needs more traffic.

We’ll ignore some of the pre-draft analysis of Thompson’s abilities, the part about him not being able to shed blockers or the part about him being a third-round pick on some draft boards. We’ll wait to see how it works out. But this was a desperate move by a team that waited too late to make a move.

 

That would come later once Gettleman realized his entire board was disappearing before his eyes. “Picked clean” was the way he put it.

So when Friday rolled around and Carolina was looking at eight more picks from a draft that offered almost zero long-term options for the Panthers, they started trading up like madmen. Carolina’s second-round pick was the 57th overall before Gettleman gave it up along with the Panthers’ third-round pick and their sixth-round pick to move up to No. 41.

 

 

 

[mattnasty919]

Not a completely true statement, but I would tend to agree more picks is better than less(duh?).Sure it holds true for the seahawks, 49ers, pats and a few other good teams at or near the top.. But examine many of the other teams with 40+ picks over the last 5 seasons. Oakland, Houston, Philly, Rams, Vikings,etc (none of which have been championship teams).

A sheer volume of picks does not equal success. Its a calculated crap shoot. You have to hit on a majority those picks, which Gettleman has done in his 2 previous drafts. If we have 5 picks, and *HIT* on 4 players, I consider it a better draft than having 10 picks and hitting on 3 players. Just my .02

For reference: http://nypost.com/2015/04/25/an-exhaustive-ranking-of-every-nfl-teams-draft-haul-since-2010/

[KintnerBoy]

I'm not reading all that.

[Mr. Scot]

 

http://www.news-record.com/sports/carolinapanthers/ed-hardin-with-nfl-draft-over-panthers-looking-to-fill/article_ba24447e-f127-11e4-8065-abca0b75c3f1.html

 

Pretty honest draft recap by Ed Hardin:

 

That's still a "need" based analysis, though.

 

As a couple of others have pointed out, analyzing based on need isn't going to generate a true result.

 

[O-Ther]

 

http://www.news-record.com/sports/carolinapanthers/ed-hardin-with-nfl-draft-over-panthers-looking-to-fill/article_ba24447e-f127-11e4-8065-abca0b75c3f1.html

 

Pretty honest draft recap by Ed Hardin:

 

 

 

 

Why do I need to care what another sportswriter I've never heard of has to say about my team? His opinion is less informed than mine, and I've known me longer than I've known him.

 

[DeeJay]

Offseason threads are off,

[KSpan]

Your argument is extremely flawed, as Gettleman's hit rate is head and shoulders above your Mendoza line in his last two drafts.

Getting 2 productive players out of five picks is above, equivalent to if we round, the 1.6 you are claiming is necessary to build a winning team. Superior talent evaluators require fewer picks to get the same amount of success, and so far that is exactly what Gettleman has brought to the table.

As far as contracts and FAs go, he has done a stellar job of getting the cap cleaned up and positioning the team to retain its top talent. He has made some mistakes, but it's also his first stint as a GM so he gets a little bit of slack.

That said, this season and the next offseason will be huge indicators of his true abilities. He may absolutely bomb from here on out and this string of successes in the draft prove to be a fluke, but for now it is ridiculous to claim that he is a terrible GM.

[PFFC]

Did not read, and happy about it!

[AU-panther]

I still stand by my assessment of Gettleman: Excellent talent evaluator/scout; horrible GM.

If you are blindly in love with Gettleman and believe hope is the way to go when running a successful organization, please stop reading now. This will hurt your heart and may dash your visions of Gettlemagic. For those who wonder about some of the actions of the front office, read on with a critical perspective. Personally, I need to put this out there into the world (wide web) to open some eyes, or to get generously smacked in the face with a dead fish as I realize I missed a significant point.

You cannot create a consistent championship contender in the NFL averaging 5 picks per draft (dead last among all GMs). It will never happen. You have to use the draft to stock your team with talent. Not udfa and journeymen free agents.

He only has to hit on his first round pick with 5 picks to get a 20% success rate. 20-25% is the conversion rate for the better GMs in the NFL, but they are dealing in double the draft/talent volume compared to Gettleman.

The champions have proven you need to average more than 8 picks per season minimum to keep that talent rolling year in and year out. Draft picks are the biggest resource for an NFL team. That goes to stocking depth, trading for players like the Seahawks did with Jimmy Graham, hitting on the Tom Brady/Antonio Smith picks in the 6th round, and leveraging your players in contract negotiations. You need to finish on top in the value of your draft picks to keep a franchise on top of the NFL. Currently the Panthers are in a deficit regarding loss of value on draft picks. This is much bigger than managing the salary cap. Gettleman just does not get it.

Great talent evaluator who has a horrible business plan when it comes to contract negotiations, the draft as a system, personnel matters, and the use of free agency. Some team has to come out on top with those resources known as draft picks. It always ends up being the Ravens, Patriots, Packers, Steelers, and now the Seahawks. They play GMs like Gettleman to take the resource advantage in the NFL.

Simply put, It will take Gettleman 5 seasons averaging 9 picks per draft to make up for this talent deficit he has created for the Panthers - 3 seasons if he continues the successes of finding talent. This is more devastating over the long run than anything the salary cap can do to a team. He is throwing away draft picks.

Using a system that assigns value to draft picks, the average 7 pick draft has 16 points (representative of the % of production a rookie class has on average for a team given 100 points for an entire team).

The Panthers have had a total of 51.7 points from the past 3 drafts based on the picks. The 15 picks Gettleman has netted over 3 seasons total 41.7 points. A loss of 10 points. When you consider 7 points is the value of a top 10 pick and 4 points is the value of a 25th to 30th pick, you can see the net loss equals the value of throwing 2 first round picks away. It all adds up. Anyone who invests in business knows about ROI.

To the point of praising Gettleman's ability to pick a player he has converted a value of 47.6 points from these 15 picks. So, he nets a very impressive gain based on the picks he has made. The problem is he is still 4.1 points in the hole. That is a late first round value.

In comparison, I will use Belichick who I consider the gold standard. Now he is a system genius, which is why I use him because I believe his talent evaluation is average. Belichick uses the economic systems of the NFL very well. He had a draft pick value of 42.9 points from the past 3 drafts. He turned that into 52.4 points for a net gain of 9.5 points - the equivalent of 2 first round draft picks. This is how a team who never goes to the Super Bowl loses first round value while a team who always goes to the Super Bowl gains first round value.

This is the currency of the NFL. Belichick likes to work on Wall Street while Gettleman likes to find the dollar store bargains and enjoys flipping beat up pieces of junk. You can beam all you want about how he is so good at evaluating talent, I agree 180%, but a GM employs those talent evaluators while working the system. A head scouting director focuses solely on finding the talent. A head chef may be great in the kitchen, but that does not mean he can expand the business as the restaurant's GM.

This is more serious than any salary cap issue in the long run, and I think too many people are fooled by the show ponies he trots out. Screwing up the salary cap will set you back 2 to 3 seasons. Screwing up the draft as a system of resources is exponential and will set you back 10 to 20 years.

For those of you who have read this far, you have been warned about the future.

Now, go revel in the draft picks and party it up, because Gettleman has found some very good players once again. It is always fun to see what will be come September. The team just needs to beat the Seahawks and Packers consistently, and it looks like that is what their draft strategy is geared toward. Can not wait to see the passing game and the 3 LBs flashing around the field making plays.

I understand what you are trying to say and actually agree with some of it, but I'm not ready to critize DG yet.

I think of draft picks as gambling. Every pick has a chance of success or failure. A second round pick might have a 50% chance of success whereas a 3rd might have a 30% chance. Some GMs such as Belichick will happily trade that second for two thirds. 60% > 50%. Overtime this should result in more successful picks. More times then not the percentages favor the team that is trading down.

Personally I'm not a huge fan of trading up, but I think the number of successful draft picks is more important then the number of actual picks, although those two usually go together.

Let's imagine we have two teams both with 7 picks.

Team A trades down and acquires 10 total picks.

Team B trades up and now only has 5 picks.

If both teams end up with 3 starters it's the same outcome. Statistically speaking the team that traded back probably had a greater chance of finding those three starters based on past history.

Some GMs play the odds, others trust their scouting. DG is a scout so I'm not surprised he traded up like he did. Hopefully this year was more of an exception then the rule. I think the board kinda forced us into some situations that we didn't want to be in.

I wasn't pleased with how our draft played out but If DG can beat the odds and be correct on his first 3 picks I would still consider it a success. So far he seams to have shown an ability to spot talent, until I see otherwise I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

I'll judge him on the results, not the process.