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Gettlemagic.

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CPantherKing Grand Master

CPantherKing

Posted
Posted

I still stand by my assessment of Gettleman: Excellent talent evaluator/scout; horrible GM.

 

If you are blindly in love with Gettleman and believe hope is the way to go when running a successful organization, please stop reading now. This will hurt your heart and may dash your visions of Gettlemagic. For those who wonder about some of the actions of the front office, read on with a critical perspective. Personally, I need to put this out there into the world (wide web) to open some eyes, or to get generously smacked in the face with a dead fish as I realize I missed a significant point. 

 

You cannot create a consistent championship contender in the NFL averaging 5 picks per draft (dead last among all GMs). It will never happen. You have to use the draft to stock your team with talent. Not udfa and journeymen free agents.

 

He only has to hit on his first round pick with 5 picks to get a 20% success rate. 20-25% is the conversion rate for the better GMs in the NFL, but they are dealing in double the draft/talent volume compared to Gettleman.

 

The champions have proven you need to average more than 8 picks per season minimum to keep that talent rolling year in and year out. Draft picks are the biggest resource for an NFL team. That goes to stocking depth, trading for players like the Seahawks did with Jimmy Graham, hitting on the Tom Brady/Antonio Smith picks in the 6th round, and leveraging your players in contract negotiations. You need to finish on top in the value of your draft picks to keep a franchise on top of the NFL. Currently the Panthers are in a deficit regarding loss of value on draft picks. This is much bigger than managing the salary cap. Gettleman just does not get it.

 

Great talent evaluator who has a horrible business plan when it comes to contract negotiations, the draft as a system, personnel matters, and the use of free agency. Some team has to come out on top with those resources known as draft picks. It always ends up being the Ravens, Patriots, Packers, Steelers, and now the Seahawks. They play GMs like Gettleman to take the resource advantage in the NFL.

 

Simply put, It will take Gettleman 5 seasons averaging 9 picks per draft to make up for this talent deficit he has created for the Panthers - 3 seasons if he continues the successes of finding talent. This is more devastating over the long run than anything the salary cap can do to a team. He is throwing away draft picks.

 

Using a system that assigns value to draft picks, the average 7 pick draft has 16 points (representative of the % of production a rookie class has on average for a team given 100 points for an entire team).

 

The Panthers have had a total of 51.7 points from the past 3 drafts based on the picks. The 15 picks Gettleman has netted over 3 seasons total 41.7 points. A loss of 10 points. When you consider 7 points is the value of a top 10 pick and 4 points is the value of a 25th to 30th pick, you can see the net loss equals the value of throwing 2 first round picks away. It all adds up. Anyone who invests in business knows about ROI.

 

To the point of praising Gettleman's ability to pick a player he has converted a value of 47.6 points from these 15 picks. So, he nets a very impressive gain based on the picks he has made. The problem is he is still 4.1 points in the hole. That is a late first round value.

 

In comparison, I will use Belichick who I consider the gold standard. Now he is a system genius, which is why I use him because I believe his talent evaluation is average. Belichick uses the economic systems of the NFL very well. He had a draft pick value of 42.9 points from the past 3 drafts. He turned that into 52.4 points for a net gain of 9.5 points - the equivalent of 2 first round draft picks. This is how a team who never goes to the Super Bowl loses first round value while a team who always goes to the Super Bowl gains first round value.

 

This is the currency of the NFL. Belichick likes to work on Wall Street while Gettleman likes to find the dollar store bargains and enjoys flipping beat up pieces of junk. You can beam all you want about how he is so good at evaluating talent, I agree 180%, but a GM employs those talent evaluators while working the system. A head scouting director focuses solely on finding the talent. A head chef may be great in the kitchen, but that does not mean he can expand the business as the restaurant's GM.

 

This is more serious than any salary cap issue in the long run, and I think too many people are fooled by the show ponies he trots out. Screwing up the salary cap will set you back 2 to 3 seasons. Screwing up the draft as a system of resources is exponential and will set you back 10 to 20 years.

 

For those of you who have read this far, you have been warned about the future.

 

Now, go revel in the draft picks and party it up, because Gettleman has found some very good players once again. It is always fun to see what will be come September. The team just needs to beat the Seahawks and Packers consistently, and it looks like that is what their draft strategy is geared toward. Can not wait to see the passing game and the 3 LBs flashing around the field making plays.

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Sean Payton's Vicodin Grand Master

Sean Payton's Vicodin

Posted
Posted

Holy wall of text.

What a pile of garbage. I'm sorry you took that long to write what amounts to the cumulative knowledge of a Cowboy fan riding a Saint fan bareback.

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TL/DR

 

oh come on, don't be a drive by shitposting bitch. it's a legit concern about losing possible depth. still think that the trade ups we've done under G-man (besides funchess) are great though.

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