My Realistic Positive Outlook For '09

[Montsta]

Yes, our defense sucks BIG TIME right now. But I firmly believe that our offense can keep pace with any offense in not only our division, but in the league as a whole right now. I think Jake's confidence has bounced back a bit, or at least in the last game, despite not putting up points on the board against Baltimore. Jake's general look made me feel like he may have finally shook off that playoff game. He was checking down well and hit tight ends and wideouts not named Steve Smith, which is a very good thing.

Secondly, who in the South has a shutdown D? Certainly not NO, Atlanta lost some key players on D, and Tampa Bay's once dominant D is getting older and no longer has Monte. The NFC as a whole is wide open for postseason positions, with the wild-cards I believe coming out of the South and the East.

Everyone is worried about our DT situation, but if we can get some decent production out of our filler guys, and our deep, healthy LB core can come up to plug the running lanes, I'm not too worried about our overall run D. My biggest concern is our secondary. With the LB's needing to help out up front, our DB's and Safeties are going to find themselves on an island with their guys, which worries me. If Peppers can some how show up and earn his paycheck, along with solid production and pressure on the other side by Brayton (who looked decent when moved inside in the preseason), Johnson and Brown in rotation, I think it will help hide our secondaries weakness'.

Atlanta - (Prediction 9-10 Wins)

Matt Ryan looked a lot better than he was because of Michael Turner, and I just don't see Turner getting the same 370 + carries in his second year as a featured back. Last time Atlanta did that with Jamal Anderson and his 400+ carries, he was done with a huge injury the next year and never came back the same. I feel like it's just too much of a pounding on his body for them to keep that up. Matt Ryan is going to have to pick up that slack, and while Tony Gonzalez will help that considerably on underneath check down passes, I just don't see them controlling the clock in games like they did last year.

New Orleans - (Prediction 8 Wins)

I'm not sold on Pierre Thomas. I think he will be an effective back in this league, but similar to our own Double trouble, he is better utilized as a committee type change of pace back, and not a featured running back. New Orleans will face some pretty good defenses against the pass early, and if they come out of the gates with a 2-3 record, and Drew Brees gets beat up by that Giants D-Line, things could quickly fall apart for them. Plus, if it comes down to the last game of the season to decide which of us is going to the postseason, I like our chances because historically, IIRC Fox has been pretty good against NO on the last game of the year, and puts up a great record against the division year in and year out.

Tampa Bay- (Prediction 5-6 Wins)

I think this is the concensus team that no one is really worried about right now. I know that you shouldn't sleep on any teams in the NFL, but the chances of them catching lightning in a bottle like ATL did last year with any skill position rookies is highly unlikely. Cadillac runs way more tentatively than he did before after multiple knee injuries, and their QB by committee approach is not going to bring them much success any time soon in my eyes.

Bottom line, I think that a 10 win season is not out of the realm of possibility for us, and should be enough to get us to the postseason. Hopefully we've gotten our injury bug bites out of the way already, and we stay healthy for the rest of the year. Another one & done is possible in the playoffs, but we tend to do better when we get there and people think we have no business being there.

Sorry for the long write-up, I tried to break it down into readable sections. :thumbsup:

[dpanthersman]

Nice write-up. besides the bucs, i think all the teams in the south are very even. the winner of this division is gonna be decided by whos defense steps up the most. im still confident that can be us. IMO we have the most talent on defense than any of the other teams in the division.

[rayzor]

panthers run D could finish in the bottom 10 if things aren't corrected.

falcon's run D could finish in the bottom 5 no matter what they do.

i don't expect any defense in the NFCS to be better than 15th ranked. partly because of weak Ds but more to do with the schedule.

with the exception of the bucs, we have some very good offenses. panthers the one of the best running games in the league, saints with the best passing games in the league, and the falcons kind of floating in between. i think they will rely on their passing game a whole lot more than the running game compared with last year.

it is pretty reasonable to think that all three teams could finish better than .500.

i think what is going to hold the saints back is their health. while we may be worried about some injuries, their situation is always worse. they are a pretty fragile team.

for the falcons it is going to be their youth. last year was pretty much near a fluke. if matty ice has a sophomore slump they could see a nose dive. their running game won't be nearly as effective against the run Ds they are facing this year as it was last year. they will see a much larger drop off than the panthers in production as far as the running game is concerned.

panthers just have the better chance to make it. they have the best all around offense with the least reliance on one or two players to succeed. losing jake would hurt the most of any but i like our backup situation better than anyone else and think that the rest of the offense would be in a better situation to withstand the change than the others.

[Captroop]

Thank you. You're one of the few that remembers that as tough as our schedule is, our division opponents have to play pretty much all the same teams. All we need to make the playoffs is to win our division, and 9-7 might just do it.

Tampa, given their schedule, could finish more like 3-5 wins.

NO will always be third place in the division until they dedicate themselves to improving the defense, which they haven't. And as strong as their offense is, for whatever reason and contrary to all common sense, they can't beat us in a shootout (and given our D, expect two big shootouts this season).

Atlanta, I don't think will fall off as much as everyone here seems to believe. And I think they will challenge us for the NFC South crown. Their Defense is abysmal, but they have enough spunk, youth, and talent to win 9-10 games just by outlasting the competition.

But we have the experience, the leadership, and [the beginnings of] a reliable defense. We can win 9, and you better hope 9 is enough to win the division, because I don't see any wildcards coming from the south this year.

[CRA]

Thank you. You're one of the few that remembers that as tough as our schedule is, our division opponents have to play pretty much all the same teams. All we need to make the playoffs is to win our division, and 9-7 might just do it.

.

The Saints do have an edge there though....getting Detriot and St. Louis. They should be able to win both.

Car got Minny and AZ.....too pretty tough games if things go as they appear.

[Captroop]

The Saints do have an edge there though....getting Detriot and St. Louis. They should be able to win both.

Car got Minny and AZ.....too pretty tough games if things go as they appear.

We play Minny at the very end of the season. If Favre is in, he'll be in his late season, old-man funk. If he's out, it'll either be Fumbly McHelicopter, or Michael Vick lite. AP is the only threat, and we proved last year that we can contain him. Even though Minny's D is scary, I'm not concerned.

Arizona is a real threat. Run game is a weakness. But you've got to give us the psychological edge there. Panthers will be foaming at the mouth to play them again.

And I'm picking Detroit over NO, just because it would be hilarious to watch if it happened.

[rayzor]

The Saints do have an edge there though....getting Detriot and St. Louis. They should be able to win both.

Car got Minny and AZ.....too pretty tough games if things go as they appear.

both farve and warner are starting to show their age. farve has cracked tip and a torn rotator cuff. how long is he going to be able to last at his age? not feeling like he will be around when we play them and if he is i think he will be on his downward spiral.

warner is having hip problems. a full year of that means less mobility and more chances of getting seriously hurt. by the time we get around to playing them i don't know how healthy he is going to be. i'm not afraid of leinart.

neither one of these teams look as strong that late in the year as they do early on. they are tougher than detroit or st. louis but still very beatable.

[Fireball77]

warner is having hip problems.

Good thing the old man plays in AZ, good weather for teh rheumatiz.

I agree with you about the defenses in the div. NO could actually wind up with the best D, though TB's doesn't look too bad either (DISCLAIMER-IN PRESEASON).

[Montsta]

The Saints do have an edge there though....getting Detriot and St. Louis. They should be able to win both.

Car got Minny and AZ.....too pretty tough games if things go as they appear.

I just saw that Detroit had a pretty damn good pass D last year. If it holds up, that will be a real positive for them against NO. I know they lost 16 games last year, but some of them were close ones.

And St. Louis stands a chance with Steven Jackson. I think he has a lot of miles left in him and against NO run D, he could go off, and they could control the clock against a pass-happy offense.

I agree with you that they should be able to win both, but for our hopes sake, I think both are also loseable games.

[cheynehowell]

Nice write up....Im thinking we can gauge the season and how it is going to be by the beginning of the season. iM DREAMING BIG AND GOING 12-4 WITH 6-0 IN THE CONFERENCE:iagree:

1 Sep 13 PHI @ CAR CAR 24 PHI 20 1-0

2 Sep 20 CAR @ ATL CAR 31 ATL 17 2-0 1-0

3 Sep 26 CAR @ DAL CAR 24 DAL 35 2-1

4 Bye

5 Oct 11 WAS @ CAR CAR 31 WAS 14 3-1

6 Oct 18 CAR @ TB CAR 38 TB 27 4-1 2-0

7 Oct 25 BUF @ CAR CAR 27 BUF 10 5-1

8 Nov 01 CAR @ ARI CAR 28 ARI 31 5-2

9 Nov 08 CAR @ NO CAR 31 NO 20 6-2 3-0

10 Nov 15 ATL @ CAR CAR 24 ATL 21 7-2 4-0

11 Nov 19 MIA @ CAR CAR 27 MIA 24 8-2

12 Nov 29 CAR @ NYJ CAR 17 NYJ 14 9-2

13 Dec 06 TB @ CAR CAR 35 TB 31 10-2 5-0

14 Dec 13 CAR @ NE CAR 17 NE 35 10-3

15 Dec 20 MIN @ CAR CAR 28 MIN 27 11-3

16 Dec 27 CAR @ NYG CAR 24 NYG 28 11-4

17 Jan 03 NO @ CAR CAR 31 NO 30 12-4 6-0

[Baschski]

Our Run D looked very good against Baltimore, and that was with our second string LBers in. With a good rotation at DT and Beason and Davis back in the lineup I think we'll be OK in Run D. I think the defense is going to live and die by the pass rush this year. If Pep can live up to his potential and post a 15 sack season, and Brayton and Brown continue to improve on the other side, then we should be fine. If we can't pressure the QB, we're going to get completely picked apart like what Flacco did last Saturday.

[RockyTopVol]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/246339-worst-to-first-in-the-nfc-south?search_query=worst-to-first

This is my realistic prediction.

[Baschski]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/246339-worst-to-first-in-the-nfc-south?search_query=worst-to-first

This is my realistic prediction.

Lawl.