Mayock's Position Rankings 5.0 released today:

[davos]

I didn't wanna make a separate thread but have been wondering:

 

Let's say you're a top team looking for a QB but have a long way to go in a lot of other departments...I think nabbing one of the most sure thing and best defenders in recent years in Williams (1) and then Hundley (2) is way more appealing than taking a gamble with Winston or Mariota.  I just really don't see what's to like with either if you look at someone like Hundley.  Nothing really sets them apart other than just being hyped.  Winston has accuracy issues that shouldn't be in a #1 overall, and Mariota needs to grow into an NFL system and is too used to making safe throws and running.   

 

Hundley came from a good system, had to deal with a inexperienced line while he was determined to grow as a passer, has the ideal modern QB size, no baggage, leader, strong arm, athletic.  People were calling him a top-10 pick before this past season and nothing really changed. He's a prospect I think will shine in the right spot.

[LinvilleGorge]

I didn't wanna make a separate thread but have been wondering:

 

Let's say you're a top team looking for a QB but have a long way to go in a lot of other departments...I think nabbing one of the most sure thing and best defenders in recent years in Williams (1) and then Hundley (2) is way more appealing than taking a gamble with Winston or Mariota.  I just really don't see what's to like with either if you look at someone like Hundley.  Nothing really sets them apart other than just being hyped.  Winston has accuracy issues that shouldn't be in a #1 overall, and Mariota needs to grow into an NFL system and is too used to making safe throws and running.   

 

Hundley came from a good system, had to deal with a inexperienced line while he was determined to grow as a passer, has the ideal modern QB size, no baggage, leader, strong arm, athletic.  People were calling him a top-10 pick before this past season and nothing really changed. He's a prospect I think will shine in the right spot.

 

QB is the one position that gets evaluated completely differently.  IMO, if you're on the clock and you think there's a franchise QB available and you don't have a franchise QB, you pretty much have to draft the guy.  The vast majority of NFL starting QBs are 1st round picks for a reason.  It's really tough to find those guys after the 1st round.  Not impossible, but tough.  You often hear people talk about doing exactly what you've said here, but it just doesn't seem to work out often.

 

Now, where I agree with you is if you're not completely sold on one of the top QBs and you have one of the other QBs rated similarly.  In that case, sure, go with the safer pick in the 1st but then you're rolling the dice that other QB will fall to you in the 2nd.  If you have him rated similarly to the top QBs, there's a good chance somebody else does as well.

[Johnny Rockets]

Mayock has lost respect in my mind.  No way Gurley is below Gordon.  No way Winston (hate him) is lesser than Mariota.  He knows DBs, so I trust that.

 

In fairness, I do not know how he rates this OT group.  They are so different. 

 

 

The risk with Winston's questionable off field decision making and Gurley's injury surely come into play in Mayock's evaluation. 

[davos]

QB is the one position that gets evaluated completely differently.  IMO, if you're on the clock and you think there's a franchise QB available and you don't have a franchise QB, you pretty much have to draft the guy.  The vast majority of NFL starting QBs are 1st round picks for a reason.  It's really tough to find those guys after the 1st round.  Not impossible, but tough.  You often hear people talk about doing exactly what you've said here, but it just doesn't seem to work out often.

 

Now, where I agree with you is if you're not completely sold on one of the top QBs and you have one of the other QBs rated similarly.  In that case, sure, go with the safer pick in the 1st but then you're rolling the dice that other QB will fall to you in the 2nd.  If you have him rated similarly to the top QBs, there's a good chance somebody else does as well.

 

Yep.  My deal is I view Hundley as a 1st rounder and just don't see what's to like about Winston.  Since he's not a dynamic/hybrid QB per se, you have to really look at his decision making and passing skills. I get he won the NC in  a pro-system but that FSU team was stocked with NFL players. Not to mention we all saw what happened when he lost a bit of that offensive support (KB most notably): went from 40 TDs, 10 INTs, AY/A 11.5 to 25 TDs, 18, INTs, AY/A 7.7.   

 

He also had games where he had to constantly dig the team out of his own mistakes (Miami, NCSU, Florida).  He has a tendency to start games really rough sometimes.  On the plus, when on point his anticipation is fantastic and he can rally a team in the second half. 

 

I just think he's gonna put up Fitzpatrick style numbers in the league.  Not really a bust but a guy who can produce, just not get over the hump.  Good football IQ, but makes boneheaded mistakes trying to do too much. 

 

I see 2 awesome fits for Hundley: Bears or Chargers. 

[LinvilleGorge]

Yeah, I honestly have no idea what the people who claim Winston's only question marks off the field have been watching.  One thing that almost never decreases for QBs when moving from college to the NFL is turnovers.  Winston was a turnover machine last year.  Like you said, he did a great job overcoming a lot of early turnovers in college, but in the NFL if you turn the ball over three times in the first half, the game is probably over.  NFL teams are just too good to allow you to overcome that, even the bad ones.  Especially if you're the #1 pick playing on a pretty terrible team.

[davos]

Yeah, I honestly have no idea what the people who claim Winston's only question marks off the field have been watching.  One thing that almost never decreases for QBs when moving from college to the NFL is turnovers.  Winston was a turnover machine last year.  Like you said, he did a great job overcoming a lot of early turnovers in college, but in the NFL if you turn the ball over three times in the first half, the game is probably over.  NFL teams are just too good to allow you to overcome that, even the bad ones.  Especially if you're the #1 pick playing on a pretty terrible team.

 

Exactly.  I'm almost happy the Bucs may draft him because he could basically be an turnover-prone Glennon that basically doesn't look like big bird.  However a major difference teams seem to see is that he has in-huddle/in-game intangibles and can rally which is huge..but he really makes bogus decisions on more than just occasion (on the field haha).

 

I feel the scandals, hype, heisman, & NC have clouded people actually talking about his game. This is going to probably show why I'm not an NFL scout (or remotely close) but I honestly see a mix of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Byron Leftwich.

[davos]

Not to mention TB just failed miserably trying to re-do their offensive line last year.  Winston is no escape artist like Cam and could get massacred by the likes of our defense.  Hell, ATL and NO could do some work on that OL in TB. 

 

With them basically shooing Doug Martin and leaning on a underachieving Sims/Rainey combo at RB, that could get rough really fast.  

[MHS831]

The risk with Winston's questionable off field decision making and Gurley's injury surely come into play in Mayock's evaluation. 

I thought about those factors,  and that has to be what he is thinking.   However, I am not sure these factors are enough to have Mariota and Gordon to go first.  Who knows?