What are your realistic expectations of draft picks?

[Fidel Cashflow]

Hall of famers.

[mc52beast]

I think a 50% hit rate would be considered a success..

[Gin and Juice]

Realistic? With 9 picks!

2 guys that boost our top half of the roster and 4 guys that boost the lower 75% of our roster

With hopefully one player developing into a pro bowler

[PrimoX]

A legitimate # 2 WR. Future LT(not in 1st). And add depth in secondary ,DE, and RB

[t96]

9 all-pros.

[CPantherKing]

I think it's reasonable to expect a first round pick to be a starter for years to come, but what are your thoughts on later rounds?  Do you really think that it's fair to expect a 5th round pick to develop into a starter?  Do you think that Gettleman is going to find regular contributors in every round?

 

What do you think  would be successful on a round by round basis?

 

Here is an article from a few years back that touches on true value of drafted players. This gives some insight into the value of draft picks.

 

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/

 

I can assure you it is not about starts relative to round. It is about a player's percentage of overall team production relative to the entire league. One must understand the behaviors, and leverage the weaknesses to increase the value of resources in the NFL draft. An organization can draft 10 3rd round picks a year and they will still get the same production as starters for a given team as you would 1st round picks, given the amount of time invested in each pick is the same.

 

While the following is not advisable, this illustrates an organization can find starters to field a competitive team from any round if the organization were to concentrate all its picks in that one round:

3rd round team

QB Russell Wilson, Nick Foles

RB Jamaal Charles, DeMarco Murray, Frank Gore

WR TY Hilton, Emanuel Sanders, Keenan Allen, John Brown

TE Jimmy Graham, Jason Witten

OL Marshal Yanda, Trai Turner, Evan Mathis, Jared Veldheer, Eric Winston

 

DL Justin Tuck, Darnell Dockett, Randy Starks, Charles Johnson

LB Navorro Bowman,  DeAndre Levy, Justin Houston

DB Tyrann Mathieu, Keenan Lewis, Phillip Gaines, Major Wright, Chris Conte

 

6th round team

QB Tom Brady, Derek Anderson 

RB Alfred Morris, Andre Ellington, James Starks

WR Antonio Brown, Pierre Garcon, Brandon Gibson, Josh Morgan

TE Charles Clay, Mychal Rivera

OL Charlie Johnson, Chris Myers, John Sullivan, Zach Fulton, Jeromey Clary  

 

DL Greg Hardy, Jeremy Mincey, Ahtyba Rubin, Chris Jones

LB Geno Hayes, Desmond Bishop, Arthur Moats

DB Jason McCourty, Byron Maxwell, EJ Gaines, Ryan Mundy, Antoine Bethea

 

Based on the previous 5 seasons QB, RB, WR, G, and LB hold the same value of production from the 1st round through the 3rd round; Center 1st to 5th; Tight End 1st to 4th; OT and DB 1st to 2nd; and DL 1st round only. The expectation is for all those positions listed to be starting in their 1st season if there is an available starting position on the team that drafted them.

 

For those interested in predictive analytics as it applies to the NFL, read on.

 

There is no straight equation for determining the value of draft picks. Rather, it is more of an economic system with intertwining behaviors. Understand the predictability or the behaviors utilized in the system and the the function of a population of professional athletes, and you can come out on top by leveraging the weaker aspects of the system.

Here is a rough example of how it works.

There is a set value on an NFL team's production during the season. Only so many players will be able to contribute over a season to this set value of production. Higher round picks are predictably utilized more than lower round picks regardless of talent level. Lower round picks that do have skills that carry over to the NFL game are given limited opportunities to get a portion of this set value of production.

So, let's say 100 represents a teams overall production for the season. Each player who gains a play on the field gains a piece of this production. This determines each players share of a team's season. Now, this allows to track the value of each pick in the draft and how each position compares from round to round.

So, let's say an organization has 7 picks. Those picks come to a value of 20. By leveraging the weaker parts of the system, that organization can almost double this value in a single draft. So, you can turn the total value of these picks from 20 to 40 by trading down throughout the draft for 15-20 picks. This does not mean the organization has to trade down with the first round pick. After they are done drafting the necessary players they need while accumulating picks, the organization then banks these picks for next years draft by trading late round picks to teams for picks in next years draft. As long as teams fall in love with players this will always work. So, that 40 accumulated ends at 35 (12-17 picks) with a current value of 28 (9-12 picks) and a future value of 7 (3 to 5 picks) in next years draft.

While this team profits with resources, their competition is weakened as there is a finite amount of picks in a draft.

The organization now has resources to target players they need by trading up in the 1st round or trading for a player.

As for the outcome of the drafted players, that is pure chance. It does not matter if a GM and scouting department choose them or a reality based fan experience that sets up a big board of their desired 256 players makes the decision. All you can do is increase the value of your resources to give you more control over the outcome of your team using the draft as a tool for all aspects of personnel acquisition.

The ultimate responsibility of the GM and scouting department is to eliminate players from the draft board that will not fit the team due to character, injuries, or capabilities. Then the largest part of the process, which many NFL teams fail to do (cough cough Browns and Cowboys) is measure the self-efficacy of the incoming players and how they impact the collective-efficacy of the team. If the drafted player fails to measure up, then their value for that organization is immediately diminished since their projected percentage of team production will be little to none. This should be known based on a team's organizational plan for the season - if they laid it out properly before training camp begins.

The drafted player still has immediate value to the league, and resources need to be reacquired with their value from another team. This includes taking a loss on the value of the pick used for the pick gained from the trade partner.

[Panthers8969]

not every pick is going to be a starter. Id be happy with 3 of them being starters and keeping our streak of hitting on our first round selections .

if gettleman hits on all 9 picks and they all are starters then he is a lizard person . I wouldn't doubt it though if some one was to find 9 starters in a draft it would be gettleman

It'd probably be belicheck

[PandaPancake]

If DG can't find 9 starters in this draft, then maybe he's not the GM we have been looking for.

Still haven't found the droids I'm looking for

[juliosantos]

It'd probably be belicheck

believe it or not belicheat isnt that good in the draft hes mainly good for free agency