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Week 1 Vegas Odds

Leeroy Jenkins PhD

By Leeroy Jenkins PhD,
in Carolina Panthers

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UNCrules2187 Mentor

UNCrules2187

Posted
Posted

Where are you getting 3 from? HFA is 2.3 points in Vegas. What whole number does 2.3 round to?

Away: 4

Neutral: 6

Home: 8

Apparently you did.

 

The old adage has always been 3. I'm sure it's changed now obviously with more data. Either way, by stating I used 3, my calculations were correct. No "bad math" there at all.

 

There's a rule of thumb that home field advantage is worth about three points in the NFL. However, a closer look at the numbers suggests that home field is not worth as much as it used to be.
 
This season, home teams are winning 58.3% of the games. However, the average winning margin in the NFL is only 1.1 points per game for the home team. This would be the fourth season in the last seven in which the average winning margin for home teams was below 2.5 points per game. And only once during that span (2011) did home teams win by at least three points per game.
 

 

 

 
It has commonly been suggested that home field advantage in the NFL is worth approximately three points to bookmakers.

 

 

http://www.sportsbettingstats.com/NFL/key-numbers.asp

 
No idea where you are pulling 2.3 from.
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TheNewStandard Newbie

TheNewStandard

Posted
Posted

I like it. Bucs getting a little early love is interesting. Young QB could screw that up though especailly if the TItans can aquire Rivers.

TB was favored against us last season and many had them winning the division as well.

Any given Sunday, but the Panthers are not the same team with all the questions about Cams health, all new WRs and DBs like last season.

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UNCrules2187 Mentor

UNCrules2187

Posted
Posted

Home team gives 3, not 6

 

How hard is this to understand? Home team gives 3, so that means Carolina would be favored by 7 (4+3) on a NEUTRAL field. Shift to BofA and you add another 3 which would be Carolina -10 over Jacksonville at BofA.

 

You have to double the move, not just blindly add/subtract 3 to the line and nothing else.

 

giphy.gif

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brandon_87 Newbie

brandon_87

Posted
Posted

How hard is this to understand? Home team gives 3, so that means Carolina would be favored by 7 (4+3) on a NEUTRAL field. Shift to BofA and you add another 3 which would be Carolina -10 over Jacksonville at BofA.

You have to double the move, not just blindly add/subtract 3 to the line and nothing else.

giphy.gif

Ok.... before the actual teams are put into play.... home team gives 3. So.... away team is already +3. Then.... the teams are slotted into the schedule and the dreamers do as they will with the power rankings. They think we are 7 point favorites, but we already have an existing +3 for being away. You add a NEGATIVE 7 to our existing POSITIVE, and get a NEGATIVE 4.

 

 

and.... I just re read your post, didn't realize exactly what you said, I apologize, thought you were trying to say we should favored my 10 or some poo even away haha nevermind

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Thorrez Collaborator

Thorrez

Posted
Posted

Those numbers mean nothing. No serious gambler will do a bet that is essentially a non interest loan for 5 months as serious gambling is all about turn over.

That leaves the regular fans, which are all believes at this point of the year.

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