Calculating Our Draft Needs

[Leeroy Jenkins PhD]

So I spent a couple minutes this morning calculating our current draft needs based off a grading system that combines PFT rankings and other player grading systems.

 

A few assumptions had to be met in order to do this: 

First I assumed that Cam would be extended and Luke would receive his 5th year option.

I also had to make the assumption that the players skill levels are not going to change over the course of time. 

Finally, it assumes that players are going to live out their current contracts.

I also only calculated potential position starts (top scores available

 

The numbers are skewed due to the fact that in 2016 we will not have a FB under contract and we will only have 2 CBs under contract. 

 

So, our current position needs are as follows:

 

Offensive Tackle (82.65)

Free Safety (72.9)

Corner Back (57.36)

Wide Receiver (51.18)

Running Back (49.51)

Strong Safety (46.23)

Full Back (42.6)

Guard (32.5)

Outside Linebacker (25.6)

Tight End (17)

Defensive End (15)

Defensive Tackle (15)

Center (12)

Quarterback (11)

Middle Linebacker (4)

 

It turned out, I think, like most of us would have predicted. If we cut Charles Johnson next year, which is likely given the cap savings, DE need jumps to 44.83. 

[GoobyPls]

I would put receiver second.

[Leeroy Jenkins PhD]

I would put receiver second.

 

Well, dammit, this ain't the way that works! 

[thunderraiden]

I agree with these rankings.

[Bartin]

Did you factor in the void years on the contracts? Cotchery, Davis and Harper will be free agents after this year because their deals void after the year even though they technically are under contract for 3 years after that. Kalil only has 2 years left despite being listed as having 2 more after that.

[Leeroy Jenkins PhD]

Did you factor in the void years on the contracts? Cotchery, Davis and Harper will be free agents after this year because their deals void after the year even though they technically are under contract for 3 years after that. Kalil only has 2 years left despite being listed as having 2 more after that.

 

Dang, nope.

 

I think it is a fair assumption that Davis extends.

 

In 2016, we currently will only have 3 WRs under contract (Benjamin, Ginn, and Brown) so I can not even calculate that properly.  We will also not have a single SS under contract so I can not calculate that either.  Just assume those two positions just jumped significantly. 

 

 

[L-TownCat]

The Kuechly option will be picked up.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/12552239/carolina-panthers-pick-luke-kuechly-fifth-year-option

[GoobyPls]

Well, dammit, this ain't the way that works!

I don't know how you look at last season and say CB is a bigger need than WR. Especially for this upcoming season.

[Leeroy Jenkins PhD]

I don't know how you look at last season and say CB is a bigger need than WR. Especially for this upcoming season.

 

That is the thing, I didn't approach this subjectively.  I took the position grades given to our projected starting players and those of which are under contract for next year and created objective needs via calculating the position average and comparing it across the league.  Then I created a positional need based off that difference. 

 

I am not personally saying which position is better.  It is a mathematical comparison.

 

In addition, if we look ahead to 2016 we will have WRs Benjamin, Ginn, and Brown remaining under contract, while at CB we will only have Bene Benwikere and Teddy Williams.  Only having 2 CBs under contract for 2016 boosted the positions expected need.

[GoobyPls]

That is the thing, I didn't approach this subjectively. I took the position grades given to our projected starting players and those of which are under contract for next year and created objective needs via calculating the position average and comparing it across the league. Then I created a positional need based off that difference.

I am not personally saying which position is better. It is a mathematical comparison.

In addition, if we look ahead to 2016 we will have WRs Benjamin, Ginn, and Brown remaining under contract, while at CB we will only have Bene Benwikere and Teddy Williams. Only having 2 CBs under contract for 2016 boosted the positions expected need.

What's the point of looking ahead? Aren't we trying to win next season? Your saying we are gonna need a corner in 2016 well theirs a draft next year right?

And Ginn and Brown being under contract means nothing, those are two very interchangeable players.

[Leeroy Jenkins PhD]

What's the point of looking ahead? Aren't we trying to win next season? Your saying we are gonna need a corner in 2016 well theirs a draft next year right?

And Ginn and Brown being under contract means nothing, those are two very interchangeable players.

 

If you are not looking ahead, you are doing it wrong.  You don't think who we have under contract in 2016 matters for our draft this year?

[Bartin]

I'm surprised FS is so high given Boston has 3 years left on his deal and play decently last year. Did he grade really poorly on PFF or something?

[GoobyPls]

If you are not looking ahead, you are doing it wrong. You don't think who we have under contract in 2016 matters for our draft this year?

Looking ahead can get you fired, this is a win now league. As a fan I'm hoping the front office is doing their best possible to win this upcoming season, which means drafting a receiver.

[Leeroy Jenkins PhD]

I'm surprised FS is so high given Boston has 3 years left on his deal and play decently last year. Did he grade really poorly on PFF or something?

 

You are right!  I just went and rechecked the numbers because it does seem a little off.  He was rated in PFF as (5.6) which is fantastic, but other grading websites have his performance at 66/100.  The combination of Tre Boston, Colin Jones, and Kurt Coleman did not help the position average, though all three are signed through 2016. 

 

Not sure what is up there.  Remember though, this is based on Boston's Rookie performance and does not take into account any player improvement.  Personally, I think we are fine at that position.