Justin Hardy route tree breakdown

[WOW!!]

I'd love to see Hardy in the 2nd or 3rd. He's the perfect possession WR that we desperately need. I'm okay w Brown and Ginn as our deep threat guys.

I like Hardy but that other stuff is bs.. Hell no to depending on Ginn and Brown as our only deep options. .

[ecu88]

I watched 10 game cutups (2012-2014), to see what type of routes ran by Hardy while he dominated at ECU. Hardy ran most of the route tree. Some routes dominated in attempts compared to others. I broke the routes up into 11 groups, and charted each route he ran. Whether he got the ball or not was really irrelevant in this breakdown, because I was mainly wanting to see what types of routes he was asked to run, and how much success or wins did he accomplish on each one.

A win occurs when Hardy gets any type of separation, and makes himself an open target for his quarterback. This has to occur in man coverage, as well as in zone coverage. He does not have to receive the ball in order to win the play, but simply become open for the quarterback. Hardy can also win a play if he gets a pass interference called on the defender guarding him, and this happened several times. Some wins came from back shoulder passes, that was created by the Quarterback ball placement, but also by Hardy and his ability to fend defenders away from the ball, or his stem in his route.

Here is the chart.

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Hardy ran 163 routes during these games. He lined up in the slot, or inside on 135 plays. He lined up outside, at the split-end and flanker positions on 77 plays. In 3 years, I counted only 6 drops. Defensive backs making plays, and breaking the pass up, or defending the pass does not count as a dropped pass to me.

By far, the route he was asked to run the most was a curl or hitch route to the inside. He ran this route at 5- 7 yards, as well as 9-10 yards, based on what type of play was called. He ran a curl 34 times, and won 27 times on those 34 plays. Curl routes made up 21% of his route tree. Hardy had a success rate of 79% on curl routes.

The route that he was least successful at was the fly/ fade category. I also included, seam routes into this section. He only won 7 times out of 18 plays on routes going vertical up the field. That gave him a 39% success rate for those types of routes. Vertical routes, or fly routes, fades, seams made up 16% of his routes. In reality, that is not that bad, but that is not where he wins (Josh Norris wording). He also had a low number of attempts at running post, corners, comebacks, and deep out routes (8-12 yards). Being he played so many snaps in the slot, I was wondering why I only seen 1 corner route. He won that play, had good separation, and caught the ball for about a 15-yard gain verse North Carolina Central University. I would have liked to see more of those routes coming from him.

The other category is for combo routes or double moves, such as wheel routes, out and ups etc. Hardy had a 69% success rate on this category. He struggled getting separation on wheel routes, and would turn wheel routes/ out and ups routes into a deep stop route or curl/ comeback.

Broken plays where the quarterback buys time in the pocket, or is scrambling around fits into the other category as well. One thing about Hardy is he stays alive, and helps his quarterback by getting open when they are scrambling around looking for a receiver to pass it to. That would be a huge plus, for teams who quarterback, could extend plays inside and outside of the pocket. The screen routes category was a collection of bubble, tunnel, and middle screens. As well as smoke routes, with guys blocking out in front for him.

I also got wanted to see how he would look verse Florida, and when matched up verse Vernon Hargreaves III, a very good sophomore cornerback (some consider would be the top cornerback in this year draft if eligible). He won only 2 match ups verse VHIII, and both times he ran a curl route.

Awesome break down, very detailed and informative! I don't even have that type of patience and wonder how long did this take you lol never mind I can only imagine.

[*FreeFua*]

Awesome stuff man!

[London Loves Luke]

Nice work kats, I asked this on another thread but did you see much YAC in his play? I've watched a lot of snaps but have barely seen him break any tackles.

[dpm0409]

Excellent work my man.  After your hardcore homework, what round do you see Hardy going? 

[Mr. Scot]

Wow this is like 1000x more work than Kiper has ever put into a player analysis ever.

I didn't see you use the words gamer, lunch pail, or football guy once.

 

I sold my lunch pail to a gamer who gave it to a football guy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Feel better?

[Mr. Scot]

As to the OP, good breakdown.

 

Was mentioned in the other thread that Proehl pointed out the pro route tree is way more complicated.  Route versatility is definitely something you want in any receiver you draft.

[Roebling]

What an outstanding post. Thanks. Really enjoyed it.... The fact that he is so bad at drags and flys is a real concern. That is what we would want out of our slot. Slants and curls don't cut it.

[DaCityKats]

Nice work kats, I asked this on another thread but did you see much YAC in his play? I've watched a lot of snaps but have barely seen him break any tackles.

 

Thanks man. i did see some major YAC ability from Hardy. he would juke the poo out of some guys, and leave their jocks on the ground. he also broke several tackles with power running through some guys. his short shuttle, and 3 cone numbers were confirmed with his YAC ability, but so was his 40. showed very little burst and acceleration in the open field. 

[TylerVagyler]

Thanks man. i did see some major YAC ability from Hardy. he would juke the poo out of some guys, and leave their jocks on the ground. he also broke several tackles with power running through some guys. his short shuttle, and 3 cone numbers were confirmed with his YAC ability, but so was his 40. showed very little burst and acceleration in the open field.

What player would you compare him to?

I've always thought he'd great in a Julian Edelman type role but wouldn't necessarily compare him to Edelman as a player.

[DaCityKats]

Excellent work my man.  After your hardcore homework, what round do you see Hardy going? 

  

thanks. i have no clue, depends on what teams value. i think the 3rd or 4th round would be his ideal spot, but you never know with the draft.

[DaCityKats]

What player would you compare him to?

I've always thought he'd great in a Julian Edelman type role but wouldn't necessarily compare him to Edelman as a player.

 

i can see Edelman as a comparison, but he gets after DBs in the run game like Hines Ward. he is a very good blocker down field, and is not scared to come inside and crack block a LB.

[TheRumGone]

Phenomenal breakdown. Scout level stuff

[hepcat]

Great research and thread!  Pie for you. I would be interested to see this kind of info on other WR's the Panthers are eyeing.  Breshad Perriman and Nelson Agholor specifically.