Justin Hardy route tree breakdown

[DaCityKats]

 

I watched 10 game cutups (2012-2014), to see what type of routes ran by Hardy while he dominated at ECU. Hardy ran most of the route tree. Some routes dominated in attempts compared to others. I broke the routes up into 11 groups, and charted each route he ran.  Whether he got the ball or not was really irrelevant in this breakdown, because I was mainly wanting to see what types of routes he was asked to run, and how much success or wins did he accomplish on each one.

 

A win occurs when Hardy gets any type of separation, and makes himself an open target for his quarterback. This has to occur in man coverage, as well as in zone coverage. He does not have to receive the ball in order to win the play, but simply become open for the quarterback.  Hardy can also win a play if he gets a pass interference called on the defender guarding him, and this happened several times. Some wins came from back shoulder passes, that was created by the Quarterback ball placement, but also by Hardy and his ability to fend defenders away from the ball, or his stem in his route.

 

Here is the chart.    

 

 

Hardy ran 163 routes during these games. He lined up in the slot, or inside on 135 plays. He lined up outside, at the split-end and flanker positions on 77 plays. In 3 years, I counted only 6 drops. Defensive backs making plays, and breaking the pass up, or defending the pass does not count as a dropped pass to me.

 

By far, the route he was asked to run the most was a curl or hitch route to the inside. He ran this route at 5- 7 yards, as well as 9-10 yards, based on what type of play was called. He ran a curl 34 times, and won 27 times on those 34 plays. Curl routes made up 21% of his route tree. Hardy had a success rate of 79% on curl routes.  

 

The route that he was least successful at was the fly/ fade category. I also included, seam routes into this section. He only won 7 times out of 18 plays on routes going vertical up the field. That gave him a 39% success rate for those types of routes. Vertical routes, or fly routes, fades, seams made up 16% of his routes.  In reality, that is not that bad, but that is not where he wins (Josh Norris wording). He also had a low number of attempts at running post, corners, comebacks, and deep out routes (8-12 yards). Being he played so many snaps in the slot, I was wondering why I only seen 1 corner route. He won that play, had good separation, and caught the ball for about a 15-yard gain verse North Carolina Central University. I would have liked to see more of those routes coming from him.

 

The other category is for combo routes or double moves, such as wheel routes, out and ups etc. Hardy had a 69% success rate on this category. He struggled getting separation on wheel routes, and would turn wheel routes/ out and ups routes into a deep stop route or curl/ comeback.

 

Broken plays where the quarterback buys time in the pocket, or is scrambling around fits into the other category as well. One thing about Hardy is he stays alive, and helps his quarterback by getting open when they are scrambling around looking for a receiver to pass it to. That would be a huge plus, for teams who quarterback, could extend plays inside and outside of the pocket.  The screen routes category was a collection of bubble, tunnel, and middle screens. As well as smoke routes, with guys blocking out in front for him.

 

I also wanted to see how he would look verse Florida, and when matched up verse Vernon Hargreaves III, a very good sophomore cornerback (some consider would be the top cornerback in this year draft if eligible). He won only 2 match ups verse VHIII, and both times he ran a curl route.

 

[Jackofalltrades]

Outstanding research, much appreciated.

[OnlyPantherFaninMaine]

Great thread my man. Really puts things into perspective about Hardy. Have you made these charts for any other receivers in this draft?

[Nick_81]

Very nice breakdown man.  Thanks for taking the time.

[TylerVagyler]

Nice work, as always.

I'd be interested to see a similar breakdown for Perriman. There seems to be a lot of uneducated generalizations made about him.

[Daeavorn]

Great work and great write up.

[Montsta]

Wow this is like 1000x more work than Kiper has ever put into a player analysis ever.

I didn't see you use the words gamer, lunch pail, or football guy once.

[@bonafidebanter]

The Justin Hardy PR machine is on and poppin I see. Hope he gets drafted here. Good luck Justin.

[DaCityKats]

Great thread my man. Really puts things into perspective about Hardy. Have you made these charts for any other receivers in this draft?

 

no, just Hardy. i thought his tree was limited being in the type of offense he was in at ECU. 

[MadHatter]

Outstanding breakdown...lots of time invested...great thread.

Would pie you multiple times if it were possible

[DaCityKats]

Nice work, as always.

I'd be interested to see a similar breakdown for Perriman. There seems to be a lot of uneducated generalizations made about him.

 

i think i may do another one on him, or Agholor next.  i still want to do one on Kevin Johnson as well.

[jtm]

I'd love to see Hardy in the 2nd or 3rd. He's the perfect possession WR that we desperately need. I'm okay w Brown and Ginn as our deep threat guys.

[KJ89]

Good stuff. I really want to draft Hardy.

[Ricky Spanish]

ECU's offense was limited to the number of throws Shane Carden can actually make.

 

Which is not many. Probably why you didn't see a lot of corner routes.