Greg Cosell: Todd Gurley "arguably the #1 prospect in this draft"

[LinvilleGorge]

You just can't discount what Gurley was doing last season. He was in for a monster year, better than either his or Chubb's freshman year.

Really? He averaged 7.4ypc while Chubb came on and averaged 7.1ypc with a substantially larger sample size to consider. Would Gurley have put up bigger numbers than Chubb? Possibly, but now THAT is projecting.

[top dawg]

And, BTW, Gurley had double digit rushing TDs in both his freshman and sophomore year, and I have no doubt that he would have done so last season.

[top dawg]

Really? He averaged 7.4ypc while Chubb came on and averaged 7.1ypc with a substantially larger sample size to consider. Would Gurley have put up bigger numbers than Chubb? Possibly, but now THAT is projecting.

 

Yes, and I admit it.

 

The thing is, regardless of Chubb, a highly recruited back himself (as has been pointed out earlier), Gurley is still arguably the type of talent that can take your offense to the next level---get your offense over the hump. If you take everything away, save for the injuries and bullshit suspension, if you have reason to believe that he can stay healthy you just can't discount him as a true first round talent.

 

On an off note, there is that thing that Cosell mentioned about offenses of the future possibly evolving back to giving the run (and quite naturally, RBs) much more of a priority being that QBs aren't being taught how to effectively run a pro style offense. And though RBs may be devalued and thought of now as kind of a one back fits all mentality, beast backs like a Marshawn Lynch can make all the difference between winning rings and continuing to go home without one, provided that you've built an overall championship caliber team.

 

Bottom line: Gurley has that type of talent, regardless of anyone else. His durability is the main question.

 

People may not think about it because of injuries, but a tandem of Stew and Gurley would probably have greater potential than any tandem in the league.  

[CelibatePimp]

No you can't. That is a list of literally every back drafted in the first since '07. No tainting the list, picking only the failures. That's every single first round running back since AP and Beast Mode were drafted. Period. Find one more position where you have to go back more than a year or two to find someone worth a first rounder and then get back to me.

 

TE drafted first round since 2006.

 

Vernon Davis

Mercedes Lewis

Greg Olsen

Dustin Keller

Brandon Pettigrew

Jermaine Gresham

Tyler Eifert

Eric Ebron.

 

You'll have to go back 5 years to get to Jermaine Gresham and even he is not on the level of Gronkowski. Being drafted in the first round does not necessarily make you a first round talent and teams make mistakes every single draft.

[Seal (SmittyIsOurSavior)]

TE drafted first round since 2006.

 

Vernon Davis

Mercedes Lewis

Greg Olsen

Dustin Keller

Brandon Pettigrew

Jermaine Gresham

Tyler Eifert

Eric Ebron.

 

You'll have to go back 5 years to get to Jermaine Gresham and even he is not on the level of Gronkowski. Being drafted in the first round does not necessarily make you a first round talent and teams make mistakes every single draft.

 

15 first round running backs since AP and Lynch. You'd have to go back to Todd Heap getting drafted in 2001 just to simply get to the same number of first round tight ends as the number of backs taken in the first since AP & Lynch.

 

Heap, Crumpler, Shockey, Witten, Clark, Cooley, Heath Miller, Daniels, Davis, Olsen, Bennett, Pitta, Hernandez, Gronk, Gresham, Cameron, Thomas, Rudolph have all been taken since then, all first/second round talents, even in a redraft. Not to mention other successful names like Ertz, Clay, Pitta, Pettigrew, Cook, Zach Miller, Myers, Keller, Finley, Tamme, Kellen Davis, Chandler, Boss, Celek, Lewis, Fasano, Scheffler, Scaife, Dreessen, Winslow, Shiancoe, Lee, Stevens.

 

All since the 15th last first round TE was taken. The vast majority of those guys were taken outside of the first. You don't need to draft certain positions in the first to find talent. I've already listed the first round RBs taken since AP & Lynch, so how about the others taken since the day those two were chosen?

 

Shady McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell, Monte Ball, Jeremy Hill, Gio Bernard, Eddy Lacy, Tre Mason, Ahmad Bradshaw, Justin Forsett, Peyton Hillis. Not to mention undrafteds like Arian Foster.

 

Hell, even Sankey, Andre Williams, Terrance West, McKinnon, Alfred Blue, Knile Davis, Andre Ellington, Zac Stacy, Bernard Pierce, Lamar Miller, Robert Turbin, Shane Vereen, Daniel Thomas, Stevan Ridley, Jaquizz Rodgers, Dexter McCluster, Ben Tate, Rashad Jennings, Michael Bush, Jason Snelling, James Stark, Shonn Greene, etc etc etc have all been worth more than their draft positions.

 

I'd say this is a more impressive list than the first rounders. Sure, there are more failures too, but I'm fine with a 5th rounder falling through with a chance at striking gold rather than a statistically terrible chance at my first round back ending up being worth a lot less than a first rounder.

 

Picking different positions has a higher success rate in the first. Period. When there hasn't been a first round back unarguably worth a first round pick in 15 straight tries, then there's an obvious problem here.

 

I want no part in potentially adding to that list with Gurley. Not to mention the fact that he is potentially injury prone.

 

Give me a tackle, a safety, or a receiver in the first. First rounders shouldn't be risked on RBs anymore, history shows us loud and clear.

[cbarrier90]

15 first round running backs since AP and Lynch. You'd have to go back to Todd Heap getting drafted in 2001 just to simply get to the same number of first round tight ends as the number of backs taken in the first since AP & Lynch.

 

Heap, Crumpler, Shockey, Witten, Clark, Cooley, Heath Miller, Daniels, Davis, Olsen, Bennett, Pitta, Hernandez, Gronk, Gresham, Cameron, Thomas, Rudolph have all been taken since then, all first/second round talents, even in a redraft. Not to mention other successful names like Ertz, Clay, Pitta, Pettigrew, Cook, Zach Miller, Myers, Keller, Finley, Tamme, Kellen Davis, Chandler, Boss, Celek, Lewis, Fasano, Scheffler, Scaife, Dreessen, Winslow, Shiancoe, Lee, Stevens.

 

All since the 15th last first round TE was taken. The vast majority of those guys were taken outside of the first. You don't need to draft certain positions in the first to find talent. I've already listed the first round RBs taken since AP & Lynch, so how about the others taken since the day those two were chosen?

 

Shady McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell, Monte Ball, Jeremy Hill, Gio Bernard, Eddy Lacy, Tre Mason, Ahmad Bradshaw, Justin Forsett, Peyton Hillis. Not to mention undrafteds like Arian Foster.

 

Hell, even Sankey, Andre Williams, Terrance West, McKinnon, Alfred Blue, Knile Davis, Andre Ellington, Zac Stacy, Bernard Pierce, Lamar Miller, Robert Turbin, Shane Vereen, Daniel Thomas, Stevan Ridley, Jaquizz Rodgers, Dexter McCluster, Ben Tate, Rashad Jennings, Michael Bush, Jason Snelling, James Stark, Shonn Greene, etc etc etc have all been worth more than their draft positions.

 

I'd say this is a more impressive list than the first rounders. Sure, there are more failures too, but I'm fine with a 5th rounder falling through with a chance at striking gold rather than a statistically terrible chance at my first round back ending up being worth a lot less than a first rounder.

 

Picking different positions has a higher success rate in the first. Period. When there hasn't been a first round back unarguably worth a first round pick in 15 straight tries, then there's an obvious problem here.

 

I want no part in potentially adding to that list with Gurley. Not to mention the fact that he is potentially injury prone.

 

Give me a tackle, a safety, or a receiver in the first. First rounders shouldn't be risked on RBs anymore, history shows us loud and clear.

 

You're basing your entire argument off previous drafts that have no relationship to this one. Todd Gurley could be a bust. So could every single prospect that gets drafted, including the tackles, receivers, or safeties you want instead.

 

Gettleman drafts the best player available. The best player available at 25 could be Todd Gurley. Therefore, I'd like Gettleman to take Todd Gurley. It's really that simple. Plus, he has one of the highest ceilings of any player potentially available at that point in the draft and running back is still a need for this team as the clock ticks on Stew and his contract's stay in Carolina.

[CelibatePimp]

15 first round running backs since AP and Lynch. You'd have to go back to Todd Heap getting drafted in 2001 just to simply get to the same number of first round tight ends as the number of backs taken in the first since AP & Lynch.

 

Heap, Crumpler, Shockey, Witten, Clark, Cooley, Heath Miller, Daniels, Davis, Olsen, Bennett, Pitta, Hernandez, Gronk, Gresham, Cameron, Thomas, Rudolph have all been taken since then, all first/second round talents, even in a redraft. Not to mention other successful names like Ertz, Clay, Pitta, Pettigrew, Cook, Zach Miller, Myers, Keller, Finley, Tamme, Kellen Davis, Chandler, Boss, Celek, Lewis, Fasano, Scheffler, Scaife, Dreessen, Winslow, Shiancoe, Lee, Stevens.

 

All since the 15th last first round TE was taken. The vast majority of those guys were taken outside of the first. You don't need to draft certain positions in the first to find talent. I've already listed the first round RBs taken since AP & Lynch, so how about the others taken since the day those two were chosen?

 

Shady McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell, Monte Ball, Jeremy Hill, Gio Bernard, Eddy Lacy, Tre Mason, Ahmad Bradshaw, Justin Forsett, Peyton Hillis. Not to mention undrafteds like Arian Foster.

 

Hell, even Sankey, Andre Williams, Terrance West, McKinnon, Alfred Blue, Knile Davis, Andre Ellington, Zac Stacy, Bernard Pierce, Lamar Miller, Robert Turbin, Shane Vereen, Daniel Thomas, Stevan Ridley, Jaquizz Rodgers, Dexter McCluster, Ben Tate, Rashad Jennings, Michael Bush, Jason Snelling, James Stark, Shonn Greene, etc etc etc have all been worth more than their draft positions.

 

I'd say this is a more impressive list than the first rounders. Sure, there are more failures too, but I'm fine with a 5th rounder falling through with a chance at striking gold rather than a statistically terrible chance at my first round back ending up being worth a lot less than a first rounder.

 

Picking different positions has a higher success rate in the first. Period. When there hasn't been a first round back unarguably worth a first round pick in 15 straight tries, then there's an obvious problem here.

 

I want no part in potentially adding to that list with Gurley. Not to mention the fact that he is potentially injury prone.

 

Give me a tackle, a safety, or a receiver in the first. First rounders shouldn't be risked on RBs anymore, history shows us loud and clear.

 

You don't draft based on history, you draft based on talent or need. If you put a high grade on a prospect, you don't pass on them because of some statistics that do not even begin to tell the whole story (injuries, number of RBs/draft, bad GM decisions etc).

 

Yeah history said no one has won the NFCS back to back, we all know how that went down. Don't be the kind of guy that is blinded by stats and history without any context.

[FuFuLamePoo]

I'm not denying the talent, but no way in hell it's worth the injury risks. Especially at this day in age when rb's aren't near as valuable. Are we ever gonna actually committ to building around our franchise centerpiece?

[LinvilleGorge]

As talented as he may be, the durability issues are enough to convince me to pass on Gurley in the 1st round.

 

Look no further than our own Jonathan Stewart for my reasoning.

[cbarrier90]

As talented as he may be, the durability issues are enough to convince me to pass on Gurley in the 1st round.

 

Look no further than our own Jonathan Stewart for my reasoning.

 

The durability issues are a legitimate concern, but I can also turn around and say look at what happened to our offense when Norwell joined the interior of the line and Stew was finally healthy.

 

IMO the reward outweighs the risk in this scenario, but I trust DG's prospect evaluation to make the right call if the scenario presents itself.

[LinvilleGorge]

The durability issues are a legitimate concern, but I can also turn around and say look at what happened to our offense when Norwell joined the interior of the line and Stew was finally healthy.

 

No doubt about Stewart's abilities when healthy.  Didn't intend to knock Stewart as a player.  I simply mentioned Stewart because of the "when he's healthy" disclaimer that is always required.

 

It's definitely very frustrating to have a talented player who consistently misses lots of playing time due to injury.  Football is a grueling sport and every team has their list of "if he could've stayed healthy..." players.  We've certainly had our fair share of 1st round picks on that list in the last decade or so.  Dan Morgan, Jon Beason, Jeff Otah, Jonathan Stewart, and until the last couple of years it sure looked like TD was gonna be on that list.

[CPantherKing]

Nick Chubb is by far better than Gurley.

 

All you need to know is Chubb carried 37 times in his first start when Gurley was out. Gurley carried the ball for more than 30 times never. Gurley had one game where he had 30 carries and the next game when he was about to break that his acl gives out. Gurley carried the ball 25 times or more 5 times in his career. Chubb did that 4 times in half a season.

 

So, ask yourself why Richt would never ride Gurley in his system, but he will ride Chubb?

[CarolinaCoolin]

Only one I can think of is Arian Foster and he's still not even very close at all. Morris had a good rookie year as a 6th rounder but he's gotten worse since then and that success may have been due to RGIII's running threat. Guys like Lynch and Peterson who are franchise cornerstones are found in the 1st round, and Gurley would be well worth our 25th pick.

Gotten worse? If having three 1000 yard rushing seasons as a 6th round pick is getting worse maybe you need to get your eyes checked. Morris has been a top 10 back since entering the league.

[LinvilleGorge]

Alfred Morris is a good RB and was a GREAT value pick, but it's fair to point out that his stats have declined every year.

1613 yards to 1275 yards to 1074 yards and 4.8ypc to 4.6ypc to 4.1ypc.