Reminder: the Pro Day season just ended. Every mock or big board you've read before now is meaningless

[MV%doe]

Gettlejack you're going full mr. scott will all these threads, brah.

[MasterAwesome]

I think people look at mock drafts with the wrong idea. Mock drafts arent meant to be accurate per se, they are however very useful to get a consensus on what players are legit 1st round prospects. I only look at mocks from the big names. Bucky Brooks, Prisco, Mel Kiper etc. I dont put stock into fan made mocks

Except all these mock drafts are created almost entirely based on need and not BPA. "Oh the Panthers need an OT so let's mock them who we think is the next best tackle" - that doesn't mean that tackle is a legit first round prospect. Mock drafts are lazy, bottom line.

[Moorgan]

Except all these mock drafts are created almost entirely based on need and not BPA. "Oh the Panthers need an OT so let's mock them who we think is the next best tackle" - that doesn't mean that tackle is a legit first round prospect. Mock drafts are lazy, bottom line.

Came here to say this. Mocks almost always project based on need whereas teams certainly don't make their boards based on need. The mocks literally explain the pick by saying the Panthers need an OT. It's useless.

[Soul Rebel]

All it takes is a trade or two to shuffle the board incredibly. That can't be predicted in a mock.  There's always a few trades on day 1, and I'm sure there will be again this year. I mean, Mariota is meeting with the Chargers (17). We're meeting with Parker (25), etc.  It's fun to mock it out, but like the Bortles pick last year, we're only a homerun swing away from chaos according to media mock drafts. 

 

Oakland is always a wildcard and there could be a team that makes a Julio Jones like move or a perceived reach (Seattle with Irvin) to change things up.

 

I love the draft. It's my Christmas and I will have adult beverage in hand to take in all three days of the glory that is the NFL Draft.  Plus the potential meltdown on here is entertaining in and of itself. 

[Mr. Scot]

Except all these mock drafts are created almost entirely based on need and not BPA. "Oh the Panthers need an OT so let's mock them who we think is the next best tackle" - that doesn't mean that tackle is a legit first round prospect.

Good point.

[UpstatePanther]

Came here to say this. Mocks almost always project based on need whereas teams certainly don't make their boards based on need. The mocks literally explain the pick by saying the Panthers need an OT. It's useless.

I agree with you. But I am also curious how many teams draft for need versus drafting bpa.

[jtm]

I don't care where people want to rate Jaelen Strong. I've been screaming for that guy way before the combine.

He didn't come in for a visit, so don't get your hopes up.

[Mr. Scot]

He didn't come in for a visit, so don't get your hopes up.

It's been pointed out that contacts through Skype and such generally aren't reported. Plus there's still time for a visit if they want.

[Bartin]

Teams do not pay attention to mocks done by the media.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/09000d5d8283af7e/article/how-nfl-teams-utilize-mock-drafts-other-outside-influences

Have heard similar from several other former GMs and scouts on the radio.

This is from former Panthers scout, Bucky Brooks:

"Do NFL teams pay attention to mock drafts?

Yes. I must preface that answer by saying all mock drafts aren’t created equal, but teams certainly pay attention to mock drafts conducted by prominent beat writers and NFL insiders.

Some executives believe a handful of writers are privy to accurate information that plays out on draft day. While they are fully aware of the smokescreen element, the fact that certain teams are tied to specific players could indicate a serious interest in a player.

In fact, when I worked with the Carolina Panthers we would keep track of eight writers’ mock drafts to see if there was a trend that popped up during the pre-draft process. Although we didn’t place a lot of stock in that information early in the process, we would scan and discuss a few mock drafts during the week leading up to the draft to see if it matched up with the buzz that we heard from colleagues on the road.

It didn’t change our draft-day strategy or affect our ranking system, but it was one of the ways we prepared for every potential scenario leading up to the draft."

[Moorgan]

I agree with you. But I am also curious how many teams draft for need versus drafting bpa.

Probably the ones that lose more than they win because there is a certain level of desperation involved with drafting for need as the main reason for the pick. But it's impossible for us to know. We can only guess at it. I do believe need is factored in to a teams draft board and with all things being equal, it's only logical to draft need. But the issue comes when things aren't equal and you use need to drive whop you draft. That seems desperate to me and can result in reaching. But the vast majority of mocks literally state right in their reasoning that their pick for us is based on need...specifically. And since that's not how it works...mocks are useless. But I still read them. I'm only human damnit!

[fjblair]

What I would consider the bigger picture...

Everything that you've been hearing up to now and everything you'll hear between now and the draft about who's rising, who's falling, what round someone is projected to, etc etc is all coming from media and draft analysts. As such, it's accuracy is very hit or miss.

You'll see guys talk about what they're hearing from inside sources, but at a time of the year when nobody wants to show their cards, how seriously would you really take that?

Draft projections are rarely worth much past the first few picks. Nobody has the kind of info they think they do, and even the best analysts rarely see things the way team scouts and personnel men do.

Draft prognostication is loads of fun to talk about, but putting any real faith in it is generally a mistake.

 

 

Which is why I don't waste time with the mock bs. Hell I don't watch the draft either. 

[Ivan The Awesome]

fug Goodell for moving the draft further back..

[Bartin]

I agree with you. But I am also curious how many teams draft for need versus drafting bpa.

 

The Panthers are definitely an exception as far as going pure BPA. The majority of teams do draft somewhat based on BPA, but it is usually BPA at a couple positions of their biggest needs, particularly in the first couple rounds then in the later rounds where teams usually aren't projecting starters everyone pretty much switches to almost pure BPA. Gettleman's stated philosophy is to go BPA regardless of position in all rounds. Fans also like it much more when they see their team fill their biggest need in a mock draft so there is a certain amount of pandering to the audience.

[Mr. Scot]

fug Goodell for moving the draft further back..

For us, yeah. But I think the teams like having more time to get their draft boards ready.