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League sources on rising & falling draft stock:


gettlemanjack

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Albert Breer @ AlbertBreer

12h

Debunking the myth of "rising" & "falling" draft stock.

One NFC exec explained, via text, that players can help themselves "a little, but tape and live exposure is the main thing. Interviews, workouts and pro days just confirm or call for more investigation. ... Not a lot of wholesale changes on any guy. Guys may have moved a half a round or a round, when you say they've really helped themselves."

"[because scouts don't waste time watcing juniors until they declare,] Juniors have more volatility before and after (the season), and then still can make jumps," added a college scouting director for another team. "Top-round guys can improve maybe a round; lower-level guys tend to make bigger jumps, because there's less of a consensus. ... (But) a lot of it is the media catching up to names they didn't know."

"We value the spring less and less," said a college scout from an AFC team. "The specialized training really makes it where if a kid doesn't blow out the workout, it's a flag. Otherwise, nothing really changes, for the most part, other than with some underclassmen, due to limited exposure in the process."

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000484739/article/bud-dupree-aj-cann-among-prospects-who-truly-helped-selves

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One NFC exec explained, via text, that players can help themselves "a little, but tape and live exposure is the main thing. Interviews, workouts and pro days just confirm or call for more investigation. ... Not a lot of wholesale changes on any guy. Guys may have moved a half a round or a round, when you say they've really helped themselves."

On a well run team, yes.

Some of the lesser teams, maybe.

It can also sometimes depend on how much coaches are involved. Scouts tend to hate it when coaches are heavily invested in the draft process because coaches have a tendency to fall in love with players off of highlight reels, whereas scouts are better trained to look at the whole picture.

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On a well run team, yes.

Some of the lesser teams, maybe.

It can also sometimes depend on how much coaches are involved. Scouts tend to hate it when coaches are heavily invested in the draft process because coaches have a tendency to fall in love with players off of highlight reels, whereas scouts are better trained to look at the whole picture.

Where does this come from? It's the coaches who grade every player for every game. It seems that would come from a really bad coach.

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Where does this come from? It's the coaches who grade every player for every game. It seems that would come from a really bad coach.

Bad coaches have egos that make them think 'I could do a lot with this guy' when they see outstanding athletes. Scouts and GMs look at what the player has actually achieved on the field and make decisions on that.
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Bad coaches have egos that make them think 'I could do a lot with this guy' when they see outstanding athletes. Scouts and GMs look at what the player has actually achieved on the field and make decisions on that.

While possible it seems like taking one possible quote in time and painting all coaches with it. Most coaches won't say a word about a players performance in a game until they grade them. I just can't buy that generalisation.

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DGB is in a position where if one team turns onto him about half the other teams will follow. I have always thought the character attacks on Cam in 2011 was unfair but he was involved in making a bad decision. JR and Gurney did their homework and make the right choice. DGB did some stupid things and got kicked off his team but he spent one year keeping his nose clean (or so I have heard).

Do you think we could be intentionally keeping quiet and have him targeted in round one. If not, do you pull the trigger if he is there in round two?

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Where does this come from? It's the coaches who grade every player for every game. It seems that would come from a really bad coach.

From a radio interview with a couple of long time personnel guys (Floyd Reese was one, I think) that I heard pre-draft just a few years ago.

Coaches aren't always great evaluators (just like scouts and GMs aren't likely to be great coaches). Having a coach who lacks in that area as part of the process can muck things up.

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If it was up to Gettleman we would most likely draft DGB because size and potential wise he fits Gman's type of player, unfortunately its JR that has Gman's hands tied

You have no clue what you're talking about.

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this is what a lot of us been saying that keep up with the draft year round. some prospects get late looks because they declare unexpectedly. when their grade is reveled, the media thinks they have rising out of no where. when they just got a late look. example is Perriman. 

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Sometimes I think teams like the Browns get their scouting from ESPN.  Explains drafting Johnny Manziel when even me as someone who has very little NFL scouting knowledge could see he was worth maybe a 6th round pick.  I guess he sold some tickets though.

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