"won't be there when we pick"

[t96]

On Chris Conley: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2406013-nfl-scouting-combine-star-chris-conley-more-than-just-a-great-athlete

 

I love this kid. Not sure how he'll translate on the field but he's the type of guy that would fit our team perfectly. Would love to use a late rounder on him.

[Mr. Scot]

The only thing we can realistically say is there are 24 guys we won't be able to draft with our first pick, and even that could change in the event of a trade.

It's fun to speculate, but even the guys who do this professionally hardly ever get anything past the first few picks right.

[Moorgan]

On Chris Conley: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2406013-nfl-scouting-combine-star-chris-conley-more-than-just-a-great-athlete

 

I love this kid. Not sure how he'll translate on the field but he's the type of guy that would fit our team perfectly. Would love to use a late rounder on him.

That article is awesome. I didn't know jack about this kid and after reading that, he's exactly the kind of guy I want on my team. They make the case that he's more than just an athlete by pointing out that Georgia ran the ball a metric poo ton. And consequently, his numbers suffered. But over and over again it's pointed out that he wants to contribute in any and every way to the team. STs? sure. Blocking? sure.

 

Add to the fact that he is a workout wizard apparently, his contributions off the field.

 

"A first-team finalist for the 2014 Senior CLASS Award, Conley was also named the Southeastern Conference’s Scholar-Athlete of the Year in football this past season. According to his profile on the Senior CLASS Award’s website, Conley sported a 3.32 cumulative GPA at Georgia and received his bachelor’s degree in journalism in December. With the Bulldogs football team, Conley was also a leader. According to Georgia’s official athletics website, he was a two-year team captain and a recipient of the UGA Coaches Leadership Award."

 

And he's a Star Wars nerd. I'd be happy to get this kid in the later rounds. Nice article.

[WUnderhill]

Every time someone makes a mock draft it seems like several people respond that a certain player won't be there when we pick.

 

So I decided to go back and see how many players of certain positions were off of the board at the 25th pick of each of the first 3 rounds.  All of these numbers are from espn.com and I could have easily missed someone, but they should be fairly accurate.

 

For example, in 2014 four receivers were drafted before the 25th pick of the first round.  Ten receivers were drafted before the 57th pick of the second round.  Thirteen receivers were drafted before the 89th pick of the third round.

 

WR

                        2012               2013                2014

1(25)                  3                      1                      4

2(57)                  8                      5                     10

3(89)                 12                    10                    13

 

RB

                        2012               2013                2014

1(25)                   1                     0                      0

2(57)                   4                     2                      2

3(89)                   7                     5                      5

 

OT

                        2012               2013                2014 

1(25)                   2                     5                      5

2(57)                   6                     6                      7

3(89)                   7                     7                     11 

 

I know positional strength in the draft can vary from year to year but this might give people an idea of who could possible actually be there when it is our turn to draft.

 

For example if teams feel like Justin Hardy is one of the top 10 receivers in the draft there is a very good chance he will be gone before the end of round 3.  If not teams might try to wait until the 4th round or later to grab him.

 

The only problem with comparing this draft to past years' drafts, is that none of those players will be there when we pick.

[wardvette]

If 20-23 players with first-round talent is considered "average" then that executive needs to re-think the way he grades first-round talent since barring draft picks being forfeited via NFL punishment, there's gonna be 32 first round picks every year. 32 should be the "average" number. Less than that being a weak top end draft and more than that being a heavy top end draft.

I was thinking the same thing.

[Ricky Spanish]

I just worry that Landon Collins and Shaq Thompson will be gone at 25 and we'll end up having to reach on a OT or WR.

 

Of course if Gettleman thinks they are worth that pick then they're not a reach, but with the depth at those positions in the 2nd and 3rd, Safety just seems like a better value in the 1st.

 

If there is no WR or OT we deem worthy enough for the 25th pick, then Gettleman will not be picking one. He will take the best guy available, whether that guy is a LB, a RB, or a DT.

[AU-panther]

If 20-23 players with first-round talent is considered "average" then that executive needs to re-think the way he grades first-round talent since barring draft picks being forfeited via NFL punishment, there's gonna be 32 first round picks every year.  32 should be the "average" number.  Less than that being a weak top end draft and more than that being a heavy top end draft.

 

Part of the problem is fans think of a players grade in terms of which round they will be selected.  This would cause teams to have to change their criteria from year to year based on the talent pool available.

 

I would guess most teams use a grading scale that is consistent from year to year and is based on a set of criteria that will project the players future performance.

 

If the above GM would have said 20-23 players with a grade of 90 or higher is average that would make more sense to some.

 

Speaking of which, ESPN had 25 players ranked with a grade of 90 or higher in the 2014 draft.  Of those 23 went in the first 25 picks.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/rankings?year=2014

In 2015 they have 21 players ranked with a grade of 90 or higher.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/rankings?year=2015

This is somewhat inline with these other articles that are claiming that this draft class is a bit lighter in elite talent.

[Squirrel]

Star Lotulelei wont be there at the 14th pick either.

[Pejorative Miscreant]

There will be approximately 47 players drafted and wont be there by the time we draft at 25. 

[Bartin]

The only thing we can realistically say is there are 24 guys we won't be able to draft with our first pick, and even that could change in the event of a trade.

It's fun to speculate, but even the guys who do this professionally hardly ever get anything past the first few picks right.

 

There's about 8-10 guys right now you can really safely say won't be there at 25. Any of the others could very easily fall to our 1st round pick and it appears we have met or plan to meet with pretty much all of them.

[joeyxfresco]

Jameis Winston

[mc52beast]

Nobody will be there when we pick...