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"won't be there when we pick"

AU-panther

By AU-panther,
in Carolina Panthers

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

Posted
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Every time someone makes a mock draft it seems like several people respond that a certain player won't be there when we pick.

 

So I decided to go back and see how many players of certain positions were off of the board at the 25th pick of each of the first 3 rounds.  All of these numbers are from espn.com and I could have easily missed someone, but they should be fairly accurate.

 

For example, in 2014 four receivers were drafted before the 25th pick of the first round.  Ten receivers were drafted before the 57th pick of the second round.  Thirteen receivers were drafted before the 89th pick of the third round.

 

WR

                        2012               2013                2014

1(25)                  3                      1                      4

2(57)                  8                      5                     10

3(89)                 12                    10                    13

 

RB

                        2012               2013                2014

1(25)                   1                     0                      0

2(57)                   4                     2                      2

3(89)                   7                     5                      5

 

OT

                        2012               2013                2014 

1(25)                   2                     5                      5

2(57)                   6                     6                      7

3(89)                   7                     7                     11 

 

I know positional strength in the draft can vary from year to year but this might give people an idea of who could possible actually be there when it is our turn to draft.

 

For example if teams feel like Justin Hardy is one of the top 10 receivers in the draft there is a very good chance he will be gone before the end of round 3.  If not teams might try to wait until the 4th round or later to grab him.

 

 

 

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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The draft is a crap shoot.  There are always a few guys who go surprisingly high and there's always a few "top rated" guys who slide.  That's why Gettleman is doing his due diligence scouting a quite a few "guys who won't be there".  By and large though, the analysts do a pretty good job with predicting 1st rounders.  If you're considered a 1st rounder by most analysts, you're probably going in the 1st or 2nd round.  It's the mid-rounders where it really gets wildly unpredictable.  Guys who were on virtually no analysts' draft radar getting picked and guys who were considered mid-round locks by virtually everyone going undrafted.

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ctrcat Newbie

ctrcat

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also:

Per league sources, NFL Draft has 16-19 top players; "20th pick same as 50th pick"

In 2012 there were 6 "elite" players according to sources, 5 of which were named Griffin, Kalil, Richardson, Blackmon, and Claiborne...and we got a scrub named Kuechly at 9.

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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In 2012 there were 6 "elite" players according to sources, 5 of which were named Griffin, Kalil, Richardson, Blackmon, and Claiborne...and we got a scrub named Kuechly at 9.

 

Yep.  Hell, every year there are future All-Pros who aren't even taken in the 1st round.

 

Sticking with that 2012 draft, Alshon Jeffrey and Bobby Wagner went in the middle of the 2nd round.  Russell Wilson was a 3rd rounder.  T.Y. Hilton went at the bottom of the 3rd.  Alfred Morris went in the 6th.

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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Draft Stefon Diggs and Chris Conley in the 4th and 5th round. After the first 3 receivers the rest of the receivers are not significantly different in talent and ability.

Use the higher picks on other positions.

 

I like Diggs.  If it wasn't for durability concerns I think he'd be more highly thought of.  I don't think spend a draft pick at all on Conley.  Someone will take a late round flier on him because he's fast, but he's a track star trying to play football.  He's just not a football player.

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Gallagher Newbie

Gallagher

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I just worry that Landon Collins and Shaq Thompson will be gone at 25 and we'll end up having to reach on a OT or WR.

 

Of course if Gettleman thinks they are worth that pick then they're not a reach, but with the depth at those positions in the 2nd and 3rd, Safety just seems like a better value in the 1st.

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gettlemanjack Newbie

gettlemanjack

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In 2012 there were 6 "elite" players according to sources, 5 of which were named Griffin, Kalil, Richardson, Blackmon, and Claiborne...and we got a scrub named Kuechly at 9.

you're thinking of the 2013 Draft:

"2013 NFL Draft class 'worst' in a decade, exec says

The criticism of the 2013 NFL Draft continues. ... One high-ranking team executive told CBS Sports' Mike Freeman this is the worst draft in a decade.

"Worst draft in past 10 years or longer," the executive said. "When we look back at this draft in five or 10 years we might view it as one of the worst we've seen in some time."

...

"There will be 13-15 players picked in the first round that are true first rounders," the executive said. "That's a fairly low number."

In comparison, the executive said there were 20-23 players with first-round talent in 2012, which is average."

2012 Draft - 5 Pro Bowlers from first 11 picks (including Luke)

2013 Draft - one Pro Bowler from first 17 picks (Sheldon Richardson)

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000162810/article/2013-nfl-draft-class-worst-in-a-decade-exec-says

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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In comparison, the executive said there were 20-23 players with first-round talent in 2012, which is average."

 

 

If 20-23 players with first-round talent is considered "average" then that executive needs to re-think the way he grades first-round talent since barring draft picks being forfeited via NFL punishment, there's gonna be 32 first round picks every year.  32 should be the "average" number.  Less than that being a weak top end draft and more than that being a heavy top end draft.

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d-dave Veteran

d-dave

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I like Diggs. If it wasn't for durability concerns I think he'd be more highly thought of. I don't think spend a draft pick at all on Conley. Someone will take a late round flier on him because he's fast, but he's a track star trying to play football. He's just not a football player.

Hey! Don't sell Conley short! He's also a Star Wars fan and film maker!

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