Per league sources, NFL Draft has 16-19 top players; "20th pick same as 50th pick"

[gettlemanjack]

Josh Norris of Rotoworld wrote:

"There might only be 10-15 consensus first round talents in the 2015 class, and many many more second-round evaluations (likely even more than usual)"

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/52439/344/post-combine-mock-draft?pg=2

then, after the Graham trade, Peter King reported that Seattle GM Schneider decided to go ahead with it because he only had 16 first-round grades on this year’s class

"It took Schneider until Tuesday morning to come to the conclusion that it was worth it. But because he has only 16 first-round grades on this year’s class and the Seahawks pick 31st, he thought Graham plus a four for center Max Unger and what was to Schneider essentially a “two” was fair.

http://mmqb.si.com/2015/03/11/jameis-winston-roger-goodell-nfl-trades-free-agency-retirement/5/

now Peter King writes:

NFL draft wise guy: “This year, the 20th pick is the same as the 50th pick to me” ... Here’s what a few football people who were at the league meetings are thinking about the breakdown of this draft:

-Nine prime picks (#1 to #9)

-then eight or 10 really good prospects (#10 to #17/#19)

-then maybe 30 or so of the same-level player (#17/#19 to #37/#39 or so)

I had one GM tell me: “The 17th pick on our board might be the 53rd pick on another team’s board—and that could be a team we really respect.”

http://mmqb.si.com/2015/03/30/extra-points-pat-rule-change-nfl-draft/5/

UPDATE: FOX Sports Peter Schrager (Apr 13):

1. I've had NFL executives tell me that after the top 10, it's a crapshoot as to which prospects will pan out. There are a few slam dunks in this draft -- Winston, Cooper, White, Williams -- a couple impact players after that, and then it's the great wide open. ... Once those top two tiers of players are off the board, there's no real consensus on who fits in that third tier.

2. Expect a lot of trades in the second half of the first round."

http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/nfl-mock-draft-041315

[Jeremy Igo]

Then next year we will look back at the mid to late rounders who ended up being better than the first round picks, like we do every year.

[Moorgan]

This draft will be exciting and unpredictable is what I get from that.

[hepcat]

There are great players in every draft if your team actually does scouting and doesn't get their intel from ESPN haha.  I have no worries with Gettlemagic running the show.

[Ruff]

Then next year we will look back at the mid to late rounders who ended up being better than the first round picks, like we do every year.

^

[top dawg]

It will all end up the same poo at the end of the day.

[gettlemanjack]

one thing i get out of that is don't be surprised if we pick a guy at #25 that you think of a 2nd R prospect. Like they are saying, the "20th pick is the same as the 50th pick" this year

[CollegePanther]

This really means nothing. Half the "prime" players won't pan out. Several of the "really good" players will be average. And ten of the "same-level" players will be pro-bowlers

[Frank Hollywood]

This might have been worrisome in the Hurney era, but.....

[EMSMedic79]

Don't believe everything you read.

[ctrcat]

Could be why there were rumors of a possible move up, perhaps the late teens or at least in front of the Bengals and Lions for a guy like Flowers or Peat. Within reason it might be the smart play.

[gettlemanjack]

another thing i get out of it:

earlier today, Jeremy replied to a guy who said Fisher will be gone at 25 with:

"Lol Good lord. ... 47 prospects will be gone before pick 25."

and it does seem like there are 40-50 prospects who could realistically be gone when we pick at #25. And 24 of them will be gone, but the other 16 to 26 will still be there when we pick!

[Mr. Scot]

The same guys who are talking down those picks now will show up after the draft talking about how happy they were to get the guy they targeted all along and what a steal / great value they were where they got them.

[Riverboat Ron]

I honestly think this is a weak top end draft, not just after 20 or so picks. There might be 4 top 10 worthy players and the rest are either mid to late 1st rounders in any other draft. On the positive, I feel like the value is in the 2nd round talent that I think can extend into the 3rd.

 

• No legit top 10 LT, most are either tweener OG prospects or RT's.
• No legit top tier WR such as Calvin Johnson, AJ Green or Larry Fitzgerald, mostly second tier but the depth is stout in this years draft.
• Both QB's have major question marks about off the field for Winston and ability for Mariota, guys like Petty, Hundley and Grayson have the chance of moving into the 1st if a team trades up.
• Outside of Vic Beasley, Danny Shelton and Leonard Williams I think the defenders leave a lot to be desired. Fowler is overrated, Gregory would've dropped even without the drug test, Ray is a bust waiting to happen as a 3-4 OLB, Dupree is arguably better than all of them and I think he'll go higher than most are projecting. 
• No 1st round TE.
• RB is strong this year but the best RB is coming off an ACL, easily the strongest group alongside WR.
• Minus Trae Waynes, I'd give all the CB's a late 1st or later grade.
• Landon Collins is great but any other year he'd go in the 20-32 range with no other safety going in the 1st.
• The best LB Paul Dawson is a major character concern and the others are top of the 2nd prospects.