The Case Against Drafting a Tackle in the 1st or 2nd Round

[rmoneyg35]

I feel Peat may be a risk. He has the size but the Utah game showed he struggles against speedy ends. Humphries has gotten a lot of hype but is that from the media or actual NFL scouts? Cedric Ogbuehi has the frame but struggled against competition and that scares me. Collins seems to be a solid guy who can play guard or tackle but is probably gone before we pick. Ereck Flowers is from a university that has made solid NFL players and has the physical abilities but may not be ready. Clemmings is Raw. Jake Fisher has skills but doesn't have the size so he probably isn't the best bet for a 1st rounder. Cam Erving could be a late first round guy who could play tackle but is more of a guard/ Center prospect but his versatility makes him an intriguing prospect. Ty Sambrailo is from a small school and might not have the right physique to play in the NFL. Guys like Daryl Williams, Tyrus Thompson, Rob Havenstein and Donovan Smith come from big name programs and could be drafted from the 3rd-5th round and are probably the safer picks. Poutasi is projected to be a guard nth who knows maybe he could play tackle in the NFL. Chaz Green and Laurence Gibson are late round guys who offer depth and will probably take a few years to develop which is what is expected from a late round pick. Then there are guys who could be drafted in the late rounds or end up being UDFA guys such as Rob Crisp, Austin Shepherd, Jamon Brown, Corey Robinson and Darryl Baldwin. There's also going to be those guys we never heard of from small schools that end up late round or UDFA. From this years prospects I think the smart decision would be to find two mid round prospects and fill other positions such as WR, Safety, DE, CB or RB in the first 3 rounds.

[@bonafidebanter]

QBs, I can agree a little bit. Tried Clausen, may thought Delhomme was good enough. And he was for a few years, a lot shorter than what people thought.

 

DTs were drafted in high rounds. DT FAs were brought in as well. Didn't work out but we tried.

 

WRs were also drafted, didn't work out but we tried. I agree with this though, should have done better.

 

Otah and Gross were the only tackles drafted highly that worked out for us for a while (unless I'm missing someone?). ANd I am giving us Otah, he worked for a year or two? Can't remember.

 

Of corse, with gross and smitty and even with Delhomme we could ignore the positions. Just seems OT has really be ignored. Finally got a QB, and just last year got a WR...an OT is needed soon, like now.

 

I feel you. this is the 21st draft in Panthers history. They've only drafted 9 offensive tackles in their existence. The last drafted OT was a 7th round pick in Lee Ziemba(did he ever see the field?) back in the Cam Newton 2011 draft. Not to mention, the current GM hasn't drafted a single one. OTs were needed 3 years ago. 

 

If you're drafting at 25 in the draft, you're pretty much getting 2nd round talent anyway. You have to trust your staff to coach these guys up. Whoever the Panthers draft in whatever round will be better than Bell or Remmers. How long can you keep trusting UDFA to hold it down at the tackle spot in the NFL? Not For Long!!

[Moorgan]

I feel Peat may be a risk. He has the size but the Utah game showed he struggles against speedy ends. Humphries has gotten a lot of hype but is that from the media or actual NFL scouts? Cedric Ogbuehi has the frame but struggled against competition and that scares me. Collins seems to be a solid guy who can play guard or tackle but is probably gone before we pick. Ereck Flowers is from a university that has made solid NFL players and has the physical abilities but may not be ready. Clemmings is Raw. Jake Fisher has skills but doesn't have the size so he probably isn't the best bet for a 1st rounder. Cam Erving could be a late first round guy who could play tackle but is more of a guard/ Center prospect but his versatility makes him an intriguing prospect. Ty Sambrailo is from a small school and might not have the right physique to play in the NFL. Guys like Daryl Williams, Tyrus Thompson, Rob Havenstein and Donovan Smith come from big name programs and could be drafted from the 3rd-5th round and are probably the safer picks. Poutasi is projected to be a guard nth who knows maybe he could play tackle in the NFL. Chaz Green and Laurence Gibson are late round guys who offer depth and will probably take a few years to develop which is what is expected from a late round pick. Then there are guys who could be drafted in the late rounds or end up being UDFA guys such as Rob Crisp, Austin Shepherd, Jamon Brown, Corey Robinson and Darryl Baldwin. There's also going to be those guys we never heard of from small schools that end up late round or UDFA. From this years prospects I think the smart decision would be to find two mid round prospects and fill other positions such as WR, Safety, DE, CB or RB in the first 3 rounds.

I recognized less than half of those names. I'll take Flowers and call it day. Otherwise...what you said.

[MHS831]

For the last few weeks I've begun to lean toward the idea of us not drafting a tackle in the 1st round. Or, for that matter, in the 2nd round either. While doing my usual research into prospects at our positions of need, I've come to the conclusion that this year's tackle class is massively overrated and there may not be one worthy of the 25th overall pick.

 

Now, I'm no scout obviously, but I do a fair bit of research every year and everything I've seen/heard/read/watched about the 1st round talents at OT have me feeling pretty underwhelmed. The consensus 1st round tackles seem to be:

 

 - Andrus Peat, Stanford

 - Ereck Flowers, Miami

 - Brandon Scherff, Iowa

 - La'el Collins, LSU

 

The borderline 1st/2nd round prospects appear to be:

 

 - T.J. Clemmings, Pittsburgh

 - D.J. Humphries, Florida

 - Jake Fisher, Oregon

 

Looking at that list, Brandon Scherff is not a left tackle in the NFL. He's a right tackle/guard prospect - basically, he might help us, but he's not what we really need. And he'll likely be gone before we pick regardless. Andrus Peat has the physical attributes we're looking for, but by no means is this guy a plug & play tackle on either side at the pro level. Ereck Flowers has a ton of upside, but needs a ton of development to reach it and even with that may only ever be a right tackle in the NFL.

 

T.J. Clemmings is extremely raw and while his ceiling may be very high, he's not a guy we'd be able to draft and start day one. That leaves us with three prospects: La'el Collins, Jake Fisher, and D.J. Humphries. Good prospects to be sure, but Collins is a tackle/guard tweener who may fit best inside or at right tackle; not to mention he'll likely be gone before our pick anyway, Humphries has had his share of struggles from time to time, but does have big-time potential, and while I like Jake Fisher, both players would be a reach at 25 overall.

 

Therein lies the problem. Do we really take Humphries in the 1st round and ignore a better player at another position? I don't think we should and I'm fairly certain that Gettleman wouldn't either.

 

There are at least 10 prospects that could well be available to us that I like better than any of the tackles I listed above:

 

 - Shaq Thompson, SS/OLB

 - Jaelen Strong, WR

 - Melvin Gordon, RB

 - Landon Collins, SS

 - Kevin Johnson, CB

 - Jalen Collins, CB

 - Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE

 - Todd Gurley, RB

 - Preston Smith, DE

 - Devante Parker, WR

 

If we do decide to go another direction in the 1st round, it's entirely possible we won't address the tackle position until the 3rd round. If you really look at the prospects, there aren't many 2nd round options that are likely to be available to us late in the 2nd round. Jake Fisher and D.J. Humphries will both likely be gone by our 2nd rounder, and then you've got Cedric Ogbuehi out of Texas A&M, who comes with a torn ACL. I'd take him in a second if he fells to us in the 3rd, but in the 2nd? That's quite a risk, IMO.

 

Once you got past those three, there really aren't that many 2nd round options that are likely to be that much better than what we'd find if we wait until the 3rd round. Ty Sambrailo out of Colorado State is about the only one who fits the range and while we have shown interest in him, there is likely to be better talent at other positions. Imagine getting Jaelen Strong in the 1st round and having a stud pass rusher like Preston Smith sitting there in the 2nd, or a RB like Tevin Coleman or a corner like Quinten Rollins. Or if we take someone like Shaq Thompson in the 1st and we have a shot at Justin Hardy or Breshad Perriman or Phillip Dorsett in the 2nd. Again, the value just isn't there at tackle over what could be there at other positions.

 

Now, once we get into the 3rd round, that changes. Guys like Donovan Smith out of Penn State, Cedric Ogbuehi (who could fall due to his injury), Daryl Williams & Tyrus Thompson from Oklahoma, and Jeremiah Poutasi out of Utah all offer similar talent and will likely be available in the 3rd despite being the same options we'd be choosing from in the 2nd.

 

Then you have mid-round guys like Chaz Green (Florida) and Laurence Gibson (VT) who all have a significant amount of upside without the risk of investing a 1st or 2nd round pick in someone like T.J. Clemmings or Ty Sambrailo.

 

I guess what I'm trying to say here is that not only should we not be surprised if Gettleman opts to stay away from the tackles in the 1st round, but that perhaps if he does we'd be smart to wait another round as opposed to taking one in the 2nd. There's a natural knee-jerk reaction to fill the hole we have at left tackle with a 1st round pick, but I'm not sure the talent available to us makes that a very smart decision.

 

Well written.  I have made the same statement.  The OT class is underwhelming at the top but solid throughout at OT

 

[CoastalCat]

For the last few weeks I've begun to lean toward the idea of us not drafting a tackle in the 1st round. Or, for that matter, in the 2nd round either. While doing my usual research into prospects at our positions of need, I've come to the conclusion that this year's tackle class is massively overrated and there may not be one worthy of the 25th overall pick.

Now, I'm no scout obviously, but I do a fair bit of research every year and everything I've seen/heard/read/watched about the 1st round talents at OT have me feeling pretty underwhelmed. The consensus 1st round tackles seem to be:

- Andrus Peat, Stanford

- Ereck Flowers, Miami

- Brandon Scherff, Iowa

- La'el Collins, LSU

The borderline 1st/2nd round prospects appear to be:

- T.J. Clemmings, Pittsburgh

- D.J. Humphries, Florida

- Jake Fisher, Oregon

Looking at that list, Brandon Scherff is not a left tackle in the NFL. He's a right tackle/guard prospect - basically, he might help us, but he's not what we really need. And he'll likely be gone before we pick regardless. Andrus Peat has the physical attributes we're looking for, but by no means is this guy a plug & play tackle on either side at the pro level. Ereck Flowers has a ton of upside, but needs a ton of development to reach it and even with that may only ever be a right tackle in the NFL.

T.J. Clemmings is extremely raw and while his ceiling may be very high, he's not a guy we'd be able to draft and start day one. That leaves us with three prospects: La'el Collins, Jake Fisher, and D.J. Humphries. Good prospects to be sure, but Collins is a tackle/guard tweener who may fit best inside or at right tackle; not to mention he'll likely be gone before our pick anyway, Humphries has had his share of struggles from time to time, but does have big-time potential, and while I like Jake Fisher, both players would be a reach at 25 overall.

Therein lies the problem. Do we really take Humphries in the 1st round and ignore a better player at another position? I don't think we should and I'm fairly certain that Gettleman wouldn't either.

There are at least 10 prospects that could well be available to us that I like better than any of the tackles I listed above:

- Shaq Thompson, SS/OLB

- Jaelen Strong, WR

- Melvin Gordon, RB

- Landon Collins, SS

- Kevin Johnson, CB

- Jalen Collins, CB

- Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE

- Todd Gurley, RB

- Preston Smith, DE

- Devante Parker, WR

If we do decide to go another direction in the 1st round, it's entirely possible we won't address the tackle position until the 3rd round. If you really look at the prospects, there aren't many 2nd round options that are likely to be available to us late in the 2nd round. Jake Fisher and D.J. Humphries will both likely be gone by our 2nd rounder, and then you've got Cedric Ogbuehi out of Texas A&M, who comes with a torn ACL. I'd take him in a second if he fells to us in the 3rd, but in the 2nd? That's quite a risk, IMO.

Once you got past those three, there really aren't that many 2nd round options that are likely to be that much better than what we'd find if we wait until the 3rd round. Ty Sambrailo out of Colorado State is about the only one who fits the range and while we have shown interest in him, there is likely to be better talent at other positions. Imagine getting Jaelen Strong in the 1st round and having a stud pass rusher like Preston Smith sitting there in the 2nd, or a RB like Tevin Coleman or a corner like Quinten Rollins. Or if we take someone like Shaq Thompson in the 1st and we have a shot at Justin Hardy or Breshad Perriman or Phillip Dorsett in the 2nd. Again, the value just isn't there at tackle over what could be there at other positions.

Now, once we get into the 3rd round, that changes. Guys like Donovan Smith out of Penn State, Cedric Ogbuehi (who could fall due to his injury), Daryl Williams & Tyrus Thompson from Oklahoma, and Jeremiah Poutasi out of Utah all offer similar talent and will likely be available in the 3rd despite being the same options we'd be choosing from in the 2nd.

Then you have mid-round guys like Chaz Green (Florida) and Laurence Gibson (VT) who all have a significant amount of upside without the risk of investing a 1st or 2nd round pick in someone like T.J. Clemmings or Ty Sambrailo.

I guess what I'm trying to say here is that not only should we not be surprised if Gettleman opts to stay away from the tackles in the 1st round, but that perhaps if he does we'd be smart to wait another round as opposed to taking one in the 2nd. There's a natural knee-jerk reaction to fill the hole we have at left tackle with a 1st round pick, but I'm not sure the talent available to us makes that a very smart decision.

Yes! Safety!! ...Yes!!!

[XClown1986]

I honestly don't believe we draft an OT in the 1st either. I believe it will be a WR, DE, or DB. Whatever is BPA. And it will be one of those positions that will be BPA at 25

[CAVSS]

Iirc it was often said that Gross was undersized too. I see a lot of similarities in Jake Fisher. We have guys that can start at OT. We need depth and future potential at LT. That is likely to be there in the first. Much less likely in the end of the second.

[MedellinHeel]

I guarantee if Humphries, Flowers, or Peat is on the board at 25 we take them assuming no conscious top 10 prospect fell.  

[MCC]

Detroits hard up for a DT with Suh and Fairly gone. Trade KK for Golden Tate?

DT is one of the hardest positions to find great, cheap talent at and KK has been steadily improving and we just lost Hardy. WRs grow on trees these days. This would be a terrible trade for us.

[Pejorative Miscreant]

Well written. I have made the same statement. The OT class is underwhelming at the top but solid throughout at OT

Agreed. I think there will be far better value at 25 than whoever is left at OT. I am just an arm chair gm but really think this is the case.

[rhyslloyd]

For the last few weeks I've begun to lean toward the idea of us not drafting a tackle in the 1st round. Or, for that matter, in the 2nd round either. While doing my usual research into prospects at our positions of need, I've come to the conclusion that this year's tackle class is massively overrated and there may not be one worthy of the 25th overall pick.

Now, I'm no scout obviously, but I do a fair bit of research every year and everything I've seen/heard/read/watched about the 1st round talents at OT have me feeling pretty underwhelmed. The consensus 1st round tackles seem to be:

- Andrus Peat, Stanford

- Ereck Flowers, Miami

- Brandon Scherff, Iowa

- La'el Collins, LSU

The borderline 1st/2nd round prospects appear to be:

- T.J. Clemmings, Pittsburgh

- D.J. Humphries, Florida

- Jake Fisher, Oregon

Looking at that list, Brandon Scherff is not a left tackle in the NFL. He's a right tackle/guard prospect - basically, he might help us, but he's not what we really need. And he'll likely be gone before we pick regardless. Andrus Peat has the physical attributes we're looking for, but by no means is this guy a plug & play tackle on either side at the pro level. Ereck Flowers has a ton of upside, but needs a ton of development to reach it and even with that may only ever be a right tackle in the NFL.

T.J. Clemmings is extremely raw and while his ceiling may be very high, he's not a guy we'd be able to draft and start day one. That leaves us with three prospects: La'el Collins, Jake Fisher, and D.J. Humphries. Good prospects to be sure, but Collins is a tackle/guard tweener who may fit best inside or at right tackle; not to mention he'll likely be gone before our pick anyway, Humphries has had his share of struggles from time to time, but does have big-time potential, and while I like Jake Fisher, both players would be a reach at 25 overall.

Therein lies the problem. Do we really take Humphries in the 1st round and ignore a better player at another position? I don't think we should and I'm fairly certain that Gettleman wouldn't either.

There are at least 10 prospects that could well be available to us that I like better than any of the tackles I listed above:

- Shaq Thompson, SS/OLB

- Jaelen Strong, WR

- Melvin Gordon, RB

- Landon Collins, SS

- Kevin Johnson, CB

- Jalen Collins, CB

- Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE

- Todd Gurley, RB

- Preston Smith, DE

- Devante Parker, WR

If we do decide to go another direction in the 1st round, it's entirely possible we won't address the tackle position until the 3rd round. If you really look at the prospects, there aren't many 2nd round options that are likely to be available to us late in the 2nd round. Jake Fisher and D.J. Humphries will both likely be gone by our 2nd rounder, and then you've got Cedric Ogbuehi out of Texas A&M, who comes with a torn ACL. I'd take him in a second if he fells to us in the 3rd, but in the 2nd? That's quite a risk, IMO.

Once you got past those three, there really aren't that many 2nd round options that are likely to be that much better than what we'd find if we wait until the 3rd round. Ty Sambrailo out of Colorado State is about the only one who fits the range and while we have shown interest in him, there is likely to be better talent at other positions. Imagine getting Jaelen Strong in the 1st round and having a stud pass rusher like Preston Smith sitting there in the 2nd, or a RB like Tevin Coleman or a corner like Quinten Rollins. Or if we take someone like Shaq Thompson in the 1st and we have a shot at Justin Hardy or Breshad Perriman or Phillip Dorsett in the 2nd. Again, the value just isn't there at tackle over what could be there at other positions.

Now, once we get into the 3rd round, that changes. Guys like Donovan Smith out of Penn State, Cedric Ogbuehi (who could fall due to his injury), Daryl Williams & Tyrus Thompson from Oklahoma, and Jeremiah Poutasi out of Utah all offer similar talent and will likely be available in the 3rd despite being the same options we'd be choosing from in the 2nd.

Then you have mid-round guys like Chaz Green (Florida) and Laurence Gibson (VT) who all have a significant amount of upside without the risk of investing a 1st or 2nd round pick in someone like T.J. Clemmings or Ty Sambrailo.

I guess what I'm trying to say here is that not only should we not be surprised if Gettleman opts to stay away from the tackles in the 1st round, but that perhaps if he does we'd be smart to wait another round as opposed to taking one in the 2nd. There's a natural knee-jerk reaction to fill the hole we have at left tackle with a 1st round pick, but I'm not sure the talent available to us makes that a very smart decision.

I'm pretty sure you just put all of my thoughts down into one post. Do I want a tackle? Absolutely. Do I want the risk of taking/potentially reaching for one in the first? Not so much. I'm fully on board the Strong bus in the first. Hope he's there.

[MHS831]

Agreed. I think there will be far better value at 25 than whoever is left at OT. I am just an arm chair gm but really think this is the case.

 

I am working toward armchair GM status.  When you consider the college offenses and look at the OTs drafted in the top 20 picks of the first round over the last 2 seasons, only 2 of the 10 have been able to step in at LT and claim some degree of success.  Transitioning to LT from college is a tremendous task.

 

We have Oher, who is not great but an upgrade.  There is hope that Matsko can work his magic on him and he is healthy.  If so, we could get him to average, which would be a huge increase.  However, NOW is when you draft the LT of the future, giving him a year or two to develop.  Even if we draft a T in the first round, the odds of him beating out Oher are not good.  I would love to see it, so that Oher can play RT (Remmers is just too soft in the run game), but a 20% chance is nothing to bank a first round pick on. 

 

All of the Tackles are projects--but there are some with higher upside and the ability to play LT.  A great example seems to be a guy the Panthers are interested in, Laurence Gibson of Va Tech.  He will be there in the fifth round.  I was very impressed with his agility at the combine. 

[Mol3m4n]

I guarantee if Humphries, Flowers, or Peat is on the board at 25 we take them assuming no conscious top 10 prospect fell.

Someone should write this post down.

[Mr. Scot]

Boy, you don't wanna get me into this discussion