The Case Against Drafting a Tackle in the 1st or 2nd Round

[CatalystNX]

For the last few weeks I've begun to lean toward the idea of us not drafting a tackle in the 1st round. Or, for that matter, in the 2nd round either. While doing my usual research into prospects at our positions of need, I've come to the conclusion that this year's tackle class is massively overrated and there may not be one worthy of the 25th overall pick.

 

Now, I'm no scout obviously, but I do a fair bit of research every year and everything I've seen/heard/read/watched about the 1st round talents at OT have me feeling pretty underwhelmed. The consensus 1st round tackles seem to be:

 

 - Andrus Peat, Stanford

 - Ereck Flowers, Miami

 - Brandon Scherff, Iowa

 - La'el Collins, LSU

 

The borderline 1st/2nd round prospects appear to be:

 

 - T.J. Clemmings, Pittsburgh

 - D.J. Humphries, Florida

 - Jake Fisher, Oregon

 

Looking at that list, Brandon Scherff is not a left tackle in the NFL. He's a right tackle/guard prospect - basically, he might help us, but he's not what we really need. And he'll likely be gone before we pick regardless. Andrus Peat has the physical attributes we're looking for, but by no means is this guy a plug & play tackle on either side at the pro level. Ereck Flowers has a ton of upside, but needs a ton of development to reach it and even with that may only ever be a right tackle in the NFL.

 

T.J. Clemmings is extremely raw and while his ceiling may be very high, he's not a guy we'd be able to draft and start day one. That leaves us with three prospects: La'el Collins, Jake Fisher, and D.J. Humphries. Good prospects to be sure, but Collins is a tackle/guard tweener who may fit best inside or at right tackle; not to mention he'll likely be gone before our pick anyway, Humphries has had his share of struggles from time to time, but does have big-time potential, and while I like Jake Fisher, both players would be a reach at 25 overall.

 

Therein lies the problem. Do we really take Humphries in the 1st round and ignore a better player at another position? I don't think we should and I'm fairly certain that Gettleman wouldn't either.

 

There are at least 10 prospects that could well be available to us that I like better than any of the tackles I listed above:

 

 - Shaq Thompson, SS/OLB

 - Jaelen Strong, WR

 - Melvin Gordon, RB

 - Landon Collins, SS

 - Kevin Johnson, CB

 - Jalen Collins, CB

 - Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE

 - Todd Gurley, RB

 - Preston Smith, DE

 - Devante Parker, WR

 

If we do decide to go another direction in the 1st round, it's entirely possible we won't address the tackle position until the 3rd round. If you really look at the prospects, there aren't many 2nd round options that are likely to be available to us late in the 2nd round. Jake Fisher and D.J. Humphries will both likely be gone by our 2nd rounder, and then you've got Cedric Ogbuehi out of Texas A&M, who comes with a torn ACL. I'd take him in a second if he fells to us in the 3rd, but in the 2nd? That's quite a risk, IMO.

 

Once you got past those three, there really aren't that many 2nd round options that are likely to be that much better than what we'd find if we wait until the 3rd round. Ty Sambrailo out of Colorado State is about the only one who fits the range and while we have shown interest in him, there is likely to be better talent at other positions. Imagine getting Jaelen Strong in the 1st round and having a stud pass rusher like Preston Smith sitting there in the 2nd, or a RB like Tevin Coleman or a corner like Quinten Rollins. Or if we take someone like Shaq Thompson in the 1st and we have a shot at Justin Hardy or Breshad Perriman or Phillip Dorsett in the 2nd. Again, the value just isn't there at tackle over what could be there at other positions.

 

Now, once we get into the 3rd round, that changes. Guys like Donovan Smith out of Penn State, Cedric Ogbuehi (who could fall due to his injury), Daryl Williams & Tyrus Thompson from Oklahoma, and Jeremiah Poutasi out of Utah all offer similar talent and will likely be available in the 3rd despite being the same options we'd be choosing from in the 2nd.

 

Then you have mid-round guys like Chaz Green (Florida) and Laurence Gibson (VT) who all have a significant amount of upside without the risk of investing a 1st or 2nd round pick in someone like T.J. Clemmings or Ty Sambrailo.

 

I guess what I'm trying to say here is that not only should we not be surprised if Gettleman opts to stay away from the tackles in the 1st round, but that perhaps if he does we'd be smart to wait another round as opposed to taking one in the 2nd. There's a natural knee-jerk reaction to fill the hole we have at left tackle with a 1st round pick, but I'm not sure the talent available to us makes that a very smart decision.

[panthers34]

I'd certainly pull the trigger on Lael Collins if he's still there at 25.

 

I trust the organization when it comes to the draft. Rivera hasn't had a bad first round pick yet and G-man has done a nice job with almost every pick he's had besides maybe a couple picks  

[ctrcat]

Disagree, hope you're wrong.  Humphries-hometown kid played in the SEC, Collins-battle tested in SEC, Flowers-monster from the U who put up 37 on the bench, or Peat-sequoia trees for legs who like Humprhies has been a blue chipper since high school, are all acceptable.  How can every other team (correct me if I'm wrong) have a former first or second rounder at RT or LT and we don't and we expect to protect our franchise???

[section543]

Beat me to it. I was just counting up OT and WR prospects plus all the other 1st rd graded talent. I agree probably not OT even though it's our biggest need.

[The Lone Panther]

I hope we draft Owamagbe Odighizuwa in the first.  I mean come on, the guy clearly has an NFL kind of name. 

[Frizzy350]

A lot of these guys I think fit better as a RT, especially Collins and Peat.

 

Fisher seems like the best guy to put out there as an LT, but appears a bit too small right now and would take some time to develop.

 

I'd be fine taking a Collins or Peat if we believe Remmers can be an acceptable left tackle.  I do believe he is left handed.

[top dawg]

I m not going to dispute you because I am in love with WRs, and have been since 2004. The only thing that I can say (right now) is that neither Justin Hardy or Phillip Dorsett are 2nd round grades. As a matter of fact, once you get past Strong, and maybe Perriman, I could argue the same thing about the WRs that will likely be there at 25. They are all a bunch of 3rd rounders down. The dark horse other than Perriman is DGB, and that's only due to character concerns.

This is another reason why I don't poo poo the remaining vets at the position in free agency. If we aren't drafting DGB, perhaps Perriman, or someone who has fallen, I could easily say wait until the third and see if Ty Montgomery, Hardy or someone else is available.

[top dawg]

Both OT and WR may be overrated this year as far as being "deep" is concerned. People may not want to hear it, but RB may be the stronger and deeper position as far as quality and day one readiness is concerned.

[Lumps]

We don't need a stuf tackle to come in right away and perform. Tackles rarley do that anyways. What we NEED is to start taking tackles with talent who we think we can couch to be a solid player (better than Bell). We SHOULD have been doing this the past 3-4 years. If one fails so be it, find another or maybe FA will yield something, but the effort has to be there. It doesn't cost hardly any cap to draft someone in rounds 3-5 and tray them out on the team. I am still baffled by this front offices complete disregard for the poistiion for those 3-4 years. They knew Gross was leaving...yet nothin as done.

 

Tackles take time to perform even as a solid player on an oline, including last years' draft...the huddle needs to stop expecting any one, period, to come in and do well. Take any tackle with upside and try to develop him, had we started this process 3-4 years ago who knows what we would have but I bet we wouldn't have gone a season with Bell at LT and Chandler at RT....I mean good lord.

[chknwing]

Detroits hard up for a DT with Suh and Fairly gone.  Trade KK for Golden Tate? 

[Lumps]

Detroits hard up for a DT with Suh and Fairly gone.  Trade KK for Golden Tate? 

 

I really hope you're joking.

[PanthersUnited]

I love this thread, as somone who strongly dislikes this class of OTs, this is my kind of thread. I truely believe that this WR class is so strong that the 2nd tier of WRs are just as good if not better than most of these 1st tier OTs. Breshad Perriman, Nelson Agolohr (i know. I spelled his name wrong) and Phillip Dorsett oh and Jaelen Strong, I would be completely ok with any of those WRs over any OT in the 1st round.

Almost every description I read of all the OTs are pretty much the same, something alomg the lines " might or not be a good fit at LT but would make a great guard or RT tho!" Meh, forget all that mess. If im taking one of these guys in the 1st round he better be a sure fire starter at LT with pro bowl potential. I dont think Remmers is a world beater but he sure as hell showed he was good enough so we dont have to draft a RT early.

At the risk of sounding cliche, if im in the Panthers war room on draft day, im banging the table for a WR in the 1st round,

[ctrcat]

We don't need a stuf tackle to come in right away and perform. Tackles rarley do that anyways. What we NEED is to start taking tackles with talent who we think we can couch to be a solid player (better than Bell). We SHOULD have been doing this the past 3-4 years. If one fails so be it, find another or maybe FA will yield something, but the effort has to be there. It doesn't cost hardly any cap to draft someone in rounds 3-5 and tray them out on the team. I am still baffled by this front offices complete disregard for the poistiion for those 3-4 years. They knew Gross was leaving...yet nothin as done.

 

Tackles take time to perform even as a solid player on an oline, including last years' draft...the huddle needs to stop expecting any one, period, to come in and do well. Take any tackle with upside and try to develop him, had we started this process 3-4 years ago who knows what we would have but I bet we wouldn't have gone a season with Bell at LT and Chandler at RT....I mean good lord.

 

Same used to be said of QBs, DTs, and WRs, but we debunked those theories and/or bucked the long term trend.  Hopefully it's not too much to ask one more time at OT, as long we we take who we like at #25 or even move up within reason to get him (above the Bengals who may take OT @21 for example). 

[csx]

I would certainly bet on the field vs OT. I won't be surprised if that's what they do but I don't see it as the most likely either.