Getty and BPA?

[Captain Morgan]

 

2013:  going into the draft, our needs were plenty...

 

DT, in fact we needed 2

 

OT

 

CB

 

WR

 

DE (Hardy was yet to come into his own)

 

S

 

and here is what Getty took

 

1.  DT

 

2.  DT

 

we did not have a 3.

 

4.  Kugbila, OG

 

5.  AJ Klein    LB

 

6.  Kenjon Barner  RB

 

 

He ignored every position that others thought were needs except DT, and he double dipped there.  Barner is gone, Kubila may be, but Klein looks like he will stick, at least as a back up.  We didn't have a 3rd, and we satisfied our greatest need, but this draft pales in comparison to 2014.

 

 

 

 

In 2014, our perceived needs were

 

OT..Gross just retired.

 

WR...Smitty is gone

 

CB

 

OG

 

DE...because of 20 percent of our cap space going to CJ and Hardy, and Alexander

with a then 4 game suspension, it was a need.

 

 

and here's what Getty got.

 

 

1.  KB...one WR is set longterm.

 

2.  Kony...he dropped to us...Getty loves pass rushers....he came on at the end of

    the year, and with Hardy and Alexander missing over 20 games combined, we got

    lucky here.  Still, this position wasn't our greatest need...we thought.

 

3.    Trai Turner.   Homerun at a position of need.

 

4.  Boston. ...even though safety wasn't listed as one of our primary needs, it

    needed a big upgrade....looks good so far.

 

5.  CB was a big need, and picking Bene, who was not on most of our radars, 

    looks like a homerun.

 

 

6.  Gaffney, no longer on the team, could have been at least a ST contributer,

    basically stolen by the Pats.

 

 

 

The UFA's aren't being considered here because this is only about how Getty drafts.

 

So he completely ignored one of our 2 biggest needs, OT, but scored big at WR.

 

Picks 3, 4 and 5 contributed hugely, and all were on our needs list.

 

The only 2 "surprises" I see as far as picks we would call BPA instead of a need

would be Barner, and Ealy, but both brought value, and Kugbila, who looks like a flop, but he was a hog mollie.  

 

Seems to me Getty doesn't take BPA, he takes BPA at one of our positions of need.

I think his idea is asking, at each pick, who will help us the most this year and going further, which may indeed not be the BPA. 

[MV%doe]

I truly believe star and kk where the BPAs, regardless of needs.

Kugzilla was not, bpa. Reaching on a player ray brown and some scout fell in love with.

AJ I believe was BPA, regardless of need. At the time, it looked like a bad pick with beason here.

Barner, I don't know. Guess... he was among a few BPAs. The sport science vid on him fooled me big time.

I believe KB, early(very sure), turner, bene where BPAs.

Don't believe tre boston or gaffney where BPAs. Ron loves him some west coasters and knew gaffney well. steve wilks personally gave boston a workout + meeting. They wanted them and dave wants to keeps coaches happy.

[Jackofalltrades]

Small sample size, I think he will take BPA. However, need may help shape the big board.

[Mother Grabber]

Small sample size, I think he will take BPA. However, need may help shape the big board.

then it's not BPA.

[Moorgan]

Small sample size, I think he will take BPA. However, need may help shape the big board.

There was talk about this another thread and it was explained to me that they most likely assign a grade to every player (like a rd scoring-1st rd talent, etc) and group them all by position. Then try to break any ties within each position grouping. That way both BPA and need can come into it.

It's the 2nd rd and there are only 3 1st rd graded guys left? 1 is a QB and two are WRs? Which WRS do we have higher? Take that guy.

Or something like that. Made sense to me anyways even though I may have buggered explaining it here.

[MHS831]

Small sample size, I think he will take BPA. However, need may help shape the big board.

 

bingo.  "Best" includes a characteristic called "need."  And it is definitely a factor when all things are equal.  I think BPA means that he is not going to reach for a need, like drafting a player a round earlier than what he is worth because you fell in love with him or he may not be there in 32 picks.  That explains why he passed on OT last year.

 

This year, however, I think the Tackle talent is spread out and I don't think there is a lot of difference between the top and bottom, at least like DEs or QBs.

[MHS831]

then it's not BPA.

 

How do you know that "best" means the same to you as it does Gettlemen?  In other words, (I explained this in response to jack's post) need could be perceived as adding to the value.

 

BPA means that his is not reaching for a player because he needs to fill that position.  However, if a need is near the top of their board, damn right he is taking him.

 

[Gin and Juice]

I truly believe star and kk where the BPAs, regardless of needs.

Kugzilla was not, bpa. Reaching on a player ray brown and some scout fell in love with.

AJ I believe was BPA, regardless of need. At the time, it looked like a bad pick with beason here.

Barner, I don't know. Guess... he was among a few BPAs. The sport science vid on him fooled me big time.

I believe KB, early(very sure), turner, bene where BPAs.

Don't believe tre boston or gaffney where BPAs. Ron loves him some west coasters and knew gaffney well. steve wilks personally gave boston a workout + meeting. They wanted them and dave wants to keeps coaches happy.

2 things, how do we know if Kugzilla was or was not the BPA? We haven't seen him play. I thought he would have been released by now after the attempted waiving.

We drafting in 6 and 7th rd, how can you really determine BPA. To Getts, a stellar recommendation means a lot. Obviously they were onto something cause the Pats wasted no time in getting him! Some analyst have been saying he is a big part of the reason they are comfortable letting Ridley and Vereen walk

[Mother Grabber]

How do you know that "best" means the same to you as it does Gettlemen? In other words, (I explained this in response to jack's post) need could be perceived as adding to the value.

BPA means that his is not reaching for a player because he needs to fill that position. However, if a need is near the top of their board, damn right he is taking him.

I disagree. to me, BPA is absolutely exclusive of need. BPA is the next best player on your board, regardless of position.

I do agree with you that absolute BPA is unlikely, and it's more likely a weighted BPA, where we could take the 2nd or 3rd, or maybe even 5th BPA, based on depth of position in the draft, need, etc.

[MHS831]

I disagree. to me, BPA is absolutely exclusive of need. BPA is the next best player on your board, regardless of position.

I do agree with you that absolute BPA is unlikely, and it's more likely a weighted BPA, where we could take the 2nd or 3rd, or maybe even 5th BPA, based on depth of position in the draft, need, etc.

This makes for an interesting debate, that is for sure.

OK, I see your point, but the board is influenced by need.  It is a crazy theory, but I don't think any GM truly means that.  The reason I think that, MG, is because they take positions off the board after they draft a position (Not sure if DG does, but I have heard others say it).  For example, they took all DEs off their board after drafting Ealy last year. 

 

If you were the GM and you know our need for OT, would you really take Bryce Petty (QB, Baylor) if he is there on your board and right under him sits Daryl Williams (OT Oklahoma).  Perry might be rated the higher player according to the team's system, but he is not going to be the best player on this team.  He would simply compete with Webb and Anderson for the clipboard.

 

The obvious question then is, "Why would the Panthers have QBs on the board at all?"  Then you get into need going into the creation of the board.    I have a feeling that we will draft a WR very early.  We will draft an OT or 2.  If they are not atop the board., Gettlemen has to grab them because they are not sitting in free agency and decent talent is not likely to be cut.

 

I really see your point, but I guess I am going on human nature.  I don't think a pre-draft rule is concrete, without a certain amount of fluidity---which is consistent with your last statement.  I think we are saying the same thing, just disagree about the degree the rule is bent.  

 

[Bartin]

This makes for an interesting debate, that is for sure.

OK, I see your point, but the board is influenced by need. It is a crazy theory, but I don't think any GM truly means that. The reason I think that, MG, is because they take positions off the board after they draft a position (Not sure if DG does, but I have heard others say it). For example, they took all DEs off their board after drafting Ealy last year.

If you were the GM and you know our need for OT, would you really take Bryce Petty (QB, Baylor) if he is there on your board and right under him sits Daryl Williams (OT Oklahoma). Perry might be rated the higher player according to the team's system, but he is not going to be the best player on this team. He would simply compete with Webb and Anderson for the clipboard.

The obvious question then is, "Why would the Panthers have QBs on the board at all?" Then you get into need going into the creation of the board. I have a feeling that we will draft a WR very early. We will draft an OT or 2. If they are not atop the board., Gettlemen has to grab them because they are not sitting in free agency and decent talent is not likely to be cut.

I really see your point, but I guess I am going on human nature. I don't think a pre-draft rule is concrete, without a certain amount of fluidity---which is consistent with your last statement. I think we are saying the same thing, just disagree about the degree the rule is bent.

Except that everything Gettleman has ever said implies that need is never taken into account and he has reinforced that implication several times.

[MHS831]

Except that everything Gettleman has ever said implies that need is never taken into account and he has reinforced that implication several times.

Believe what you want, but since you don't know the Panther's board, you are only guessing.  but if your theory is true, it is possible that a CB could be atop the board every round.  So are you saying we would draft 7 CBs?  What if the BPA is a 3-4 OLB?

 

Everything Gettlemen says is subject to some degree of interpretation. He is under no obligation to be completely transparent, and you do not know what he means when he says "Best." 

 

Best to you may mean best player, but best to him may mean "best fit". 

 

We drafted a WR first last year when we had nothing in the cupboard.  Coincidence?  Hell no.

[Bartin]

Believe what you want, but since you don't know the Panther's board, you are only guessing. but if your theory is true, it is possible that a CB could be atop the board every round. So are you saying we would draft 7 CBs? What if the BPA is a 3-4 OLB?

Everything Gettlemen says is subject to some degree of interpretation. He is under no obligation to be completely transparent, and you do not know what he means when he says "Best."

Best to you may mean best player, but best to him may mean "best fit".

We drafted a WR first last year when we had nothing in the cupboard. Coincidence? Hell no.

Personally, I think his BPA only line is BS. I don't believe a single word the guy says especially after he tried to tell us Oher started at LT in the Super Bowl. However, if you're going strictly off what he says then yes he would draft 7 CB's. The sample size of his drafts isn't big enough yet to really determine if he is totally truthful about BPA. It could be purely coincidence that BPA and need have matched up really well the last two years or he could be full of crap. This upcoming draft should be really telling.

[MHS831]

Personally, I think his BPA only line is BS. I don't believe a single word the guy says especially after he tried to tell us Oher started at LT in the Super Bowl. However, if you're going strictly off what he says then yes he would draft 7 CB's. The sample size of his drafts isn't big enough yet to really determine if he is totally truthful about BPA. It could be purely coincidence that BPA and need have matched up really well the last two years or he could be full of crap. This upcoming draft should be really telling.

 

Yeah, and I really think that he tries to set up the BPA approach in free agency.  I simply think it means he will not reach.  Since I question the quality of OTs in the draft's early stages, I would bet that we do not take one in the first round.  I bet we take a WR again. 

 

He has filled holes with people, so, as you say, lets watch.  We are still learning him.  I love what he is doing, personally.