numberFire's NEP metric paints question marks around Crabtree

[top dawg]

numberFire, a five year old advanced statistics company, uses their own metric Net Expected points (NEP) to rank players.  Well according to an article written by numberFire's J.J. Zachariason based on NEP, Crabtree basically isn't that effective as other receivers (including Stevie Johnson, who was mentioned in the article).

 

Reception NEP looks to see how many expected points a player adds on receptions only -- it's a cumulative statistic, meaning volume can help a player tremendously. When you divide that by the number of targets a player sees (Reception NEP per target), however, you start to see efficiency. 

 

 

Now I am not arguing the validity of Reception NEP, per se, but I expressly remember reading something during the season (perhaps Rotoworld) that basically said the same thing about the effectiveness of Johnson's touches as compared to the other 49ers receivers, and particularly Crabtree's less than stellar efficiency.  I wouldn't be surprised if some other metric that rated efficiency based upon receptions bares out Crabtree's relative ineffectiveness also.

 

 

 

Perhaps the worst part about his 2014 campaign was that his per target effectiveness was far worse than teammates Anquan Boldin and Steve Johnson, who finished with Reception NEP per targets of 0.73 and 0.81, respectively. In other words, with the same quarterback in the same system, two veteran receivers were much better each time they were targeted than Crabtree was a year ago.

 

This, too, brings up an interesting point: Since Anquan Boldin has been in San Francisco, he's had a Reception NEP per target average of 0.83, which is better than Crabtree's breakout campaign. As I noted last year, Boldin has been insanely underrated, but considering his average is better than Crabtree's peak is pretty telling. Perhaps Michael Crabtree just isn't all that great.

 

 

 

I am not saying that Crabtree wouldn't add something to our receiving corps, but from an efficiency standpoint Johnson is the markedly better option.

 

I didn't go looking for an article slamming Crabtree. I am just trying to garner general information. I really don't have a dog in the fight, but to say that based upon injury and the purported money that we'd have to pay, Crabtree may not be the great value that some Panthers fans expect. As for this numberFire article, you can take it for what it's worth. 

 

Personally, I hope that we steer clear because of the value/bargain equation, but if we bring him in for a visit and eventually sign Crabtree, I will accept him with a smile (just like any free agent), albeit with tempered expectations.

 

 

 

[TheNewStandard]

do not want. give me Hicks and a solid draft pick.

[ThPantherFan]

Never heard of this method for statistical inference.  Interesting, but I don't know if I would place a lot of stock in it.

[jumpman910]

Please let them have ones for Nicks and Moore so we can dead all there hype around here.

[TANTRIC-NINJA]

The Nicks family has been posting alot on here apparently.

I was all for Nicks last offseason but one year in a pass heavy offense and Nicks showed to be the 4th or 5th best Target for the Colts last season.

[Montsta]

Do you know of any other articles using this metric against other receivers?

It sounds interesting but I'd like to see how some other names fared using this.

[d-dave]

I love the statistical analysis that people go into!  When you read into their methodologies, it is so fascinating!

 

While stats are cool, I hate it when people/organizations fall into "paralysis by analysis."  You can look at numbers all day long, but they don't tell the total story.  They do make for interesting stories though...

 

I'll leave the heavy analysis of Crabtree to folks who are more familiar with him.  I've just had a "negative" vibe about his, but then again, he's a 49er...  My opinion on him is completely baseless =)

 

For those more familiar, who is the real Crabree outside of the numbers?  Do they represent a good play in a bad system?

[Soul Rebel]

Of the three, Johnson is my preference, but I believe any of the three would help our passing game.  As of now I put the pecking order as Johnson > Crabtree > Nicks.

 

2014 STATS:

 

Johnson: 28 years old - 35 rec - 435 yards - 3TD 

Crabtree: 27 years old - 68 rec - 698 yards - 4TD

Nicks :    27 years old  - 38 rec - 405 yards - 4TD

 

CAREER:

 

Johnson: 78 games played / 96 possible games

                326 rec on 579 targets = .56%

                4,165 yards        29 TD

                QBs:  Fitzpatrick, Edwards, Manuel, Tuel

 

Crabtree: 79 games played / 96 possible games

                347 rec on 568 targets = .61%  

                4,327 yards        26 TD

                QBs:  Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, Kaepernick

 

Nicks:     86 games played / 96 possible games

               349 rec on 698 targets = .57%  

               5,027 yards         31 TD

               QBs: Eli Manning, Luck

 

Nicks  has more receptions, targets, yards and touchdowns, but has played in 7 & 8 more games, and has had far superior QBs throwing to him.  

 

Whereas Johnson and Crabtree have been consistent year in and year out, Nicks' play has dropped off dramatically the past 2-3 seasons.  

 

Nicks is the youngest of the three, having turned 27 this past January, and Johnson will turn 29 this season, and Crabtree will turn 28 this season.  

 

Crabtree will probably be the most expensive, then Johnson, and Nicks can be had the cheapest.  

[DanTheMan]

The Nicks family has been posting alot on here apparently.

I was all for Nicks last offseason but one year in a pass heavy offense and Nicks showed to be the 4th or 5th best Target for the Colts last season.

If the Nicks family has some much influence then why did'nt he sign here last year for peanuts?

[t96]

I'd rather have Johnson than Crabtree anyways. Will likely cost a bit less too. I'd be fine with Nicks or Moore as well. Just hope we can get 1 of these 4.

[jumpman910]

The Nicks family has been posting alot on here apparently.

I was all for Nicks last offseason but one year in a pass heavy offense and Nicks showed to be the 4th or 5th best Target for the Colts last season.

Lmao exactly, I wanted him last here cause I thought he needed a change of scenery cause he looked like he didn't care with the Giants. But after seeing the same hakeem with the colts, I'll pass.