Panthers 2015 Free Agent Analyses and Predictions - Part 1

[UpstatePanther]

Hello there everyone. Ive decided to try my hand at predicting the Panthers free-agency moves, at least with respect to those players whose contracts with the organization are ending. I will be the first person to admit that i am not a cap-expert, player salary expert, or talent evaluating expert. However, i do believe i can use stats, trends, and basic information to draw logical conclusions. bear with me and fee free to correct me or add your own input. all information comes from spotrac.com, nfl.com, and espn.com. I am using spotrac's "Carolina Panthers 2015 Free Agents" list to draw my order, and so the first player on my list is Greg Hardy. I did not choose who to do first. This is not a Hardy-legal-issues thread. Strictly cap/contract talk.

 

Greg Hardy, 5^th year DE, 26 y.o., Franchised through 2014, placed on Commissioner's Exempt Status while resolving legal issues surrounding a domestic violence accusation. Trial set for February. Has not played since Week 1 of 2014. Has support of Head Coach, support from General Manager and Owner unknown.

 

Stats:

15 sacks in 2013 (2^nd overall), 59 combined tackles (T-7 among defensive ends)

 

     Compares to:

          - 2014: Mario Williams, Everson Griffen, Jason Pierre-Paul

          - 2013: Robert Quinn, Jared Allen

 

previous contract:

     4 year, $2,775,784 (rookie contract 2010-2013)

          - signing bonus: 115, 786.

          - guaranteed: 115, 786

 

Current contract value:

     1 year, $13,116,000, Franchise Tender.

 

Similar players' contracts:

     Jason Pierre-Paul (26 y.o.): 5 years, $16M ($7.3M guaranteed), (rookie contract 2010-2014)

          - 2014 total compensation: $4.6M

          - research yielded $12M/yr as likely for JPP, 5 years at $12M is $60M

 

     Mario Williams (29 y.o.): 6 years, $96M ($31.4M guaranteed), (2012-2017)

          - 2014 total compensation: $18.8M

 

     Everson Griffen (27 y.o.): 5 years, $42.5M ($19.8M guaranteed), (2014-2018)

          - 2014 total compensation: $8.2M

 

     Robert Quinn: (24 y.o.): 6 years, $67.0M ($41.2M guaranteed), (2014-2019)

          - 2014 total compensation: $3.0M

 

     Jared Allen (32 y.o.): 4 years, $32M ($15.5M guaranteed), (2014-2017)

          - 2014 total compensation: $3.0M

 

Averages:

     27.6 y.o., 5 years, $50.7M ($23M guaranteed), (2015-2019, if re-signed)

 

Comments:

     5 years, $50 million with $23 million guaranteed actually seems like a good deal for a player who has posted elite numbers, but not only missed essentially an entire season, but missed essentially an entire season due to legal trouble. Even if Hardy is found innocent by a jury of his peers, surely the whole ordeal (and the $13.1M the Panthers paid him to sit at home 15 of 16 games) has cheapened his value. If Hardy is found innocent, it is undeniable that the Panthers are a better team with him at RDE. Also, there is certainly value in keeping him away from the other teams in the NFC South. If rumors are to be believed, Hardy wants to be in Carolina. So, if he is innocent, and is willing to recognize what the Panthers' organization has done for him, this would be a great deal for the Panthers for the talent offered. It is worth noting that the Panthers could sign Hardy to a similar deal as above, and then trade him for draft picks. It would be a steal for a team that desperately needs an immediate fix at DE and has the cash to spend. 

 

Prediction:

     A few things need to happen for the Panthers to resign Hardy:

    1) He needs to be found innocent.

    2) He needs to be comfortable with a contract that is worth $10-12 million per year, and is backloaded. 

    3) The Panthers need to clear the cap space to sign him, sign Cam Newton, sign other free agents, and sign draft picks. The Panthers could conceivably wait to sign Cam until the 2016 offseason, but this is not the desired result. If negotiations stall for alittle while (as they might), Cam might be offered other deals by other teams. This is a situation the Panthers need to avoid at all costs. Unless we backload Hardy's contract, signing him would make it very difficult to sign Cam this offseason. Which could put alot of pressure on the 2016 offseason to sign Kuechly and others. Unfortunately, Dave Gettleman does not seem to backload contracts. Granted, there hasnt been alot of marquee contracts yet for Gettleman, but a quick survey of the contracts Gettleman has put together shows that its not is modus operandii to push the majority of a contract's money to its last few years. 

 

    - even if he is found innocent, i dont think the Panthers resign him. We would have to have nearly $30 million in cap space to sign Hardy to a new contract (without backloading his contract), extend Cam, and still sign our draft picks. while some have said the Panthers could clear enough space to reach $30 million free, this isnt a guarantee and it still leaves the Panthers without much cash to compete in the rest of free agency. For these reasons, i dont see Hardy coming back. The Panthers could sign him and trade him for draft picks, so long as his contract goes with him. 

 

what do you guy think? is Hardy coming back or not?

[MadHatter]

There is a zero percent chance that Hardy plays again for the Panthers.  We need to accept that fact.

[Mr. Scot]

I don't see it happening either, and it's not primarily because of the money.

 

Even if he's not guilty on the charges, he's not proven to be someone you want to have to depend on.

[PantherFanOne]

Someone will sign Greg Hardy to a big contract because  elite pass rushing DE's are hard to come by. Regretfully i don't see how we will be able to afford him,thereare to many other needs to be taken care of. 

[xerxes]

Only thing Hardy has going for him is that RR loves him. But he burned Gettleman, and Gman doesn't seem the type to get fooled twice.

[TheSpecial1]

There is a zero percent chance that Hardy plays again for the Panthers.  We need to accept that fact.

Agree. Other than that, pretty good analysis.

[rmoneyg35]

Luckily his trial will be before free agency so we should find out if he's guilty or not before the deadline to resign or franchise (unlikely) him. If he is found not guilty then i see no reason why we don't keep him. If he does leave I don't see Gettleman just allowing him to sign with a team. He will be traded so we will get something out of him. You don't let someone with that amount of talent just walk away, problems or not.

[Lemory]

Hmmm, a Hardy thread disguised as a Free Agent prediction thread. Getting creative with them now.

[Mol3m4n]

Hmmm, a Hardy thread disguised as a Free Agent prediction thread. Getting creative with them now.

^This

[TheSpecial1]

Hello there everyone. Ive decided to try my hand at predicting the Panthers free-agency moves, at least with respect to those players whose contracts with the organization are ending. I will be the first person to admit that i am not a cap-expert, player salary expert, or talent evaluating expert. However, i do believe i can use stats, trends, and basic information to draw logical conclusions. bear with me and fee free to correct me or add your own input. all information comes from spotrac.com, nfl.com, and espn.com. I am using spotrac's "Carolina Panthers 2015 Free Agents" list to draw my order, and so the first player on my list is Greg Hardy. I did not choose who to do first. This is not a Hardy-legal-issues thread. Strictly cap/contract talk.

 

Greg Hardy, 5^th year DE, 26 y.o., Franchised through 2014, placed on Commissioner's Exempt Status while resolving legal issues surrounding a domestic violence accusation. Trial set for February. Has not played since Week 1 of 2014. Has support of Head Coach, support from General Manager and Owner unknown.

 

Stats:

15 sacks in 2013 (2^nd overall), 59 combined tackles (T-7 among defensive ends)

 

     Compares to:

          - 2014: Mario Williams, Everson Griffen, Jason Pierre-Paul

          - 2013: Robert Quinn, Jared Allen

 

previous contract:

     4 year, $2,775,784 (rookie contract 2010-2013)

          - signing bonus: 115, 786.

          - guaranteed: 115, 786

 

Current contract value:

     1 year, $13,116,000, Franchise Tender.

 

Similar players' contracts:

     Jason Pierre-Paul (26 y.o.): 5 years, $16M ($7.3M guaranteed), (rookie contract 2010-2014)

          - 2014 total compensation: $4.6M

          - research yielded $12M/yr as likely for JPP, 5 years at $12M is $60M

 

     Mario Williams (29 y.o.): 6 years, $96M ($31.4M guaranteed), (2012-2017)

          - 2014 total compensation: $18.8M

 

     Everson Griffen (27 y.o.): 5 years, $42.5M ($19.8M guaranteed), (2014-2018)

          - 2014 total compensation: $8.2M

 

     Robert Quinn: (24 y.o.): 6 years, $67.0M ($41.2M guaranteed), (2014-2019)

          - 2014 total compensation: $3.0M

 

     Jared Allen (32 y.o.): 4 years, $32M ($15.5M guaranteed), (2014-2017)

          - 2014 total compensation: $3.0M

 

Averages:

     27.6 y.o., 5 years, $50.7M ($23M guaranteed), (2015-2019, if re-signed)

 

Comments:

     5 years, $50 million with $23 million guaranteed actually seems like a good deal for a player who has posted elite numbers, but not only missed essentially an entire season, but missed essentially an entire season due to legal trouble. Even if Hardy is found innocent by a jury of his peers, surely the whole ordeal (and the $13.1M the Panthers paid him to sit at home 15 of 16 games) has cheapened his value. If Hardy is found innocent, it is undeniable that the Panthers are a better team with him at RDE. Also, there is certainly value in keeping him away from the other teams in the NFC South. If rumors are to be believed, Hardy wants to be in Carolina. So, if he is innocent, and is willing to recognize what the Panthers' organization has done for him, this would be a great deal for the Panthers for the talent offered. It is worth noting that the Panthers could sign Hardy to a similar deal as above, and then trade him for draft picks. It would be a steal for a team that desperately needs an immediate fix at DE and has the cash to spend. 

 

Prediction:

     A few things need to happen for the Panthers to resign Hardy:

    1) He needs to be found innocent.

    2) He needs to be comfortable with a contract that is worth $10-12 million per year, and is backloaded. 

    3) The Panthers need to clear the cap space to sign him, sign Cam Newton, sign other free agents, and sign draft picks. The Panthers could conceivably wait to sign Cam until the 2016 offseason, but this is not the desired result. If negotiations stall for alittle while (as they might), Cam might be offered other deals by other teams. This is a situation the Panthers need to avoid at all costs. Unless we backload Hardy's contract, signing him would make it very difficult to sign Cam this offseason. Which could put alot of pressure on the 2016 offseason to sign Kuechly and others. Unfortunately, Dave Gettleman does not seem to backload contracts. Granted, there hasnt been alot of marquee contracts yet for Gettleman, but a quick survey of the contracts Gettleman has put together shows that its not is modus operandii to push the majority of a contract's money to its last few years. 

 

    - even if he is found innocent, i dont think the Panthers resign him. We would have to have nearly $30 million in cap space to sign Hardy to a new contract (without backloading his contract), extend Cam, and still sign our draft picks. while some have said the Panthers could clear enough space to reach $30 million free, this isnt a guarantee and it still leaves the Panthers without much cash to compete in the rest of free agency. For these reasons, i dont see Hardy coming back. The Panthers could sign him and trade him for draft picks, so long as his contract goes with him. 

 

what do you guy think? is Hardy coming back or not?

 

I admire the research and time you put into your analysis.

However, I don't think Gettleman has nor will do such an analysis on Greg simply because we will not attempt to re-sign him. It won't matter if he's found to be innocent, we're just going to let him walk.

[C47]

Gettleman would be out of his mind to give Hardy a long term deal with 20 plus million guaranteed. 

[blackcat]

Anyone who thinks he's coming back has never owned or run a business.

[Catweisers]

Hardy, Hardy, Hardy, Haaaa,  if he wiggles out of this mess he's in I think that he wants to be here. 

With a shot at the Golden Ring at the end of the Rainbow there might be several folks that might want to come here.

Hope that $770,000.00 a week bought us a little bit of cap room and him too.  Guess time will tell. 

If it helps us I'm fer it!!!!!!!!!!!

[JARROD]

Great analysis. I hate to be the bearer of bad news and agree with the other responses,...but unless Hardy wanted to sign a vet minimum deal with heavy performance escalators and behavior clauses, I would say extremely improbable.  At least at league minimum he wouldn't count against the cap.   Hes not going to sign something like that. Someone like Cinci will sign him.