Snow on the way?

[Jase]

None of the models have been in agreement with each other, they are all over the place with each run. Waaaay to early to make a call on this one!

That usually means it isn't happening.

[Brooklyn Bully]

I'll mail you guys some. Pretty sure we'll have enough to spare. About to go out and buy something. Not sure what. But I feel 18-24" of snow requires me to follow some sort of protocol. Perhaps I'll buy some shoe laces.

[Crixtala]

had a nice, short blast of a snow shower this morning, but nothing stuck

 

weather's been saying for days now that we'll get some good snow showers tomorrow and again on Sunday (although, it looked less likely last time I looked).  hopefully we get a good snow day or two, it's half the reason I moved to the mountains in the first place

[Squirrel]

It is coming over the mountains so that knocks out Charlotte getting any. System is breaking up already so that knocks out Greensboro and Raleigh

[4Corners]

That usually means it isn't happening.

 

ditto. These weather dorks don't know what's going to happen, especially a week away. They are just like the fantasy football analysts. They may have an idea of what could possibly happen, but they don't really know. 

 

"Snow" and "ice" are buzzwords here in Charlotte, NC. And the meteorologists (even the good ones) just love to string you along and get you to tune into the 6PM news to hear more about all the snow we possibly are gonna get. 

[4Corners]

One thing I do know about "snow" down here in Charlotte NC is that we only usually get nailed if Atlanta gets nailed first. I've lived in this city my entire life (except for my time in college at ECU) and the worst snow we get is when it comes up from the south. 

[4Corners]

This RT just popped up on my twitter feed from Panovich. Panovich in my opinion is the best WX bro in Charlotte. 

 

[Jeremy Igo]

Weather underground says snow.

[ecu88]

One thing I do know about "snow" down here in Charlotte NC is that we only usually get nailed if Atlanta gets nailed first. I've lived in this city my entire life (except for my time in college at ECU) and the worst snow we get is when it comes up from the south.

If the storm is south and off the coast, eastern NC gets fugged you are right. Exhibit A last year.......

[TheAmericanDream]

Bring it on. Means more money in my pocket.

[OnlyPantherFaninMaine]

Coming down heavily in NYC right now. 

[Shufdog]

One thing I do know about "snow" down here in Charlotte NC is that we only usually get nailed if Atlanta gets nailed first. I've lived in this city my entire life (except for my time in college at ECU) and the worst snow we get is when it comes up from the south. 

 

This is not necessarily true, Brad Panovich did a write up on it.

 

Ever since I have been in Charlotte now 12 years and counting. I’ve always heard this saying, “If it doesn’t snow in Atlanta it’s not going to snow in Charlotte”. It was kind of an odd thing, even though the first several snow storms I experienced in 2002 and 2003 didn’t cause snow in Atlanta. Ever since then I have been keeping tallies of the myth/folklore and can understand how this started and why it may be true at times but more often than not it just doesn’t work out that way.It kinda reminds me of that famous line from Anchorman, “60% of the time it works every time”. In this case, it might be more like 30% of the time it works every-time.

 

Here are some facts and theories on why this might be true some of the time but more often than not it doesn’t work. I have roughly calculated that it only works out to about ~30-40% of the time. It’s hard to really gauge due to the record-book differences and timing of storms between Atlanta and Charlotte. Here’s though is a look at what might be going on.

 

 

http://wxbrad.com/does-it-have-to-snow-in-atlanta-for-it-to-snow-in-charlotte-no/

[Ja Rhule]

Looks like Charlotte will get 1-3 inches of snow but everything will melt by lunch time.

[Shufdog]

From Panovich's Facebook:

 

Reasons to ignore 7-10 day snowfall maps or at least take them with a gigantic grain of salt.

 

#1 Models are horrible at this time range with specifics like snowfall where many variables have yet to be fully processed or developed.

 

#2 If it's only one model then it's an outlier and not likely.

 

#3 The ECMWF map floating around has no context. This model has produced 4 no show snow storms in the Southeast this winter. Track record is horrible in our area so far this winter.

 

#4 The ECMWF model snowfall maps take all precipitation where it has freezing anywhere in the sounding and converts it to snow at a 10:1 ratio. So basically it doesn’t know if it’s a mix, ice, snow or all three, it just shows it as all snow.

 

#5 Snow is only measured to the nearest 0.10” anything lower than is considered a trace. Even that being said does anyone thing we can tell you to the nearest 0.10” of rainfall 7 days out, let alone snowfall?

 

#6 The pattern is favorable for winter weather next week, yes, but specifics aren’t there yet. Just like I’d tell you there could be strong thunderstorms possible next week. I wouldn’t say a specific thunderstorm or tornado will hit here at 4:45pm. It doesn’t work that way. As we get closer the funnel of forecasting goes from a pattern to a storm to specifics. Can't put the cart before the horse, in this case.