Steve Smith review 2014 and future

[TN05]

With the Ravens eliminated from the playoffs, we can now fully examine Steve Smith's career performance up to this year. 

 

2014 season review

Over his career with the Panthers (excluding the 2001 and 2005 seasons), Steve Smith averaged 75 catches, 1,089 yards, and 6 touchdowns per year. In 2014, Steve Smith had 79 receptions, 1,065 yards, and 6 touchdowns. In other words, Steve's 2014 performance (at age 35, no less) was very, very close to his career average (slightly more receptions and slightly fewer yards). Steve Smith also set the following age milestones:

*14th WR 35 or older to record 1,000 receiving yards in a season, and the 11th-best receiving yards season in that group.

*11th WR 35 or older to record 70 or more receptions, and the 10th most receptions in a season in that group.

*19th WR 35 or older to record 6 or more TDs, and tied for 17th most TDs in that group.

In my opinion, Steve Smith was snubbed and disrespected by not even being an alternate. To put it in perspective, Larry Fitzgerald, who finished the season with stats about on par with last year's Steve Smith (but only with two TDs), is an alternate.

It's by no means his best season, but it's a historic one in his age group.

 

Of course, Steve Smith also passed 1,000 yards receiving in the postseason, becoming just the 13th player to do so. As it stands, Steve Smith has 59 postseason receptions (23rd all-time), 1,001 postseason receiving yards (13th all-time), 9 postseason receiving touchdowns (7th all-time), and 11 total postseason touchdowns (11th all-time). Steve needs 10 more receptions to enter the top 10, 228 receiving yards to enter the top five, and three receiving touchdowns to rank 2nd all-time (5th in total touchdowns)

 

2015 season preview

Can we expect another 1,000 yard season from Steve Smith next year? The odds are not in his favor here. Steve Smith with be 36 next season, and only eleven WRs (Jerry Rice, Jimmy Smith, Joey Galloway, Terrell Owens, Charlie Joiner, Tim Brown, Chris Carter, Issac Bruce, Derrick Mason, James Lofton, and Reggie Wayne) 36 or over have finished with more than 700 yards; only 15 WRs 36 or over have finished with 50 or more receptions. The odds suggest Steve Smith will lie closer to his 2013 performance than anything, but you never know. 

 

2016 season preview

With his three-year contract Steve Smith could theoretically be playing at age 37. The numbers for 37-year old receivers are grim at best. Only three WRs of that age (Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens, and Charlie Joiner) have finished with more than 700 yards, and only seven (add in Art Monk, Tim Brown, Irving Fryar and Don Maynard) have finished with more than 500 yards. In receptions, only six WRs have finished with more than 40 receptions. If Steve Smith is still playing at this point, he will, in all likelihood, finish with around 40-50 receptions and 500-600 yards.

 

Can Steve Smith reach 1,000 receptions and 15,000 yards?

As it stands, Steve Smith has 915 receptions, 13,262 yards, and 73 touchdowns. These numbers rank 18th, 14th, and  33rd all-time, respectively. In order to finish with 1,000 receptions (10th all-time), 15,000 yards (6th all-time) and 25 touchdowns (29th all-time), Steve Smith would need to average 43 receptions, 869 yards, and 1 touchdown over the next two seasons. If Steve Smith does indeed play two more years, it is very likely he would surpass 1,000 receptions - the fewest receptions he's ever had in a full season in 46 (2010). It is somewhat unlikely he can reach the prestigious 15,000 yard mark, however - even if he were to record another 1,000 yard season, he'd still need 738 more yards. 

 

A more reachable goal would be to reach 19,000 career all-purpose yards. As it stands, Steve Smith is the current active APY leader with 17,672 yards. That's 10th all-time, and he's one of only two receivers (the other being Jerry Rice) that is in the top ten. He is only 1,328 yards away from reaching 19,000 career yards - a mark only six players in NFL history (Jerry Rice, Brian Mitchell, Walter Payton, Emmett Smith, and Marshall Faulk) have achieved. He would need to average just 664 yards over the next two seasons to reach that career milestone, which combined with 1,000 career receptions would make him a very appealing Hall of Fame candidate.

Hall of Fame

The way I see it:

*If he were to retire today, he would be a credible candidate, but only on the strength of his postseason numbers.

*If he were to reach 1,000 receptions, he'd be be more likely than not to get in the Hall of Fame.

*If he were to reach 19,000 APY yards, he'd be very likely to get in the Hall of Fame.

*If here were to reach 15,000 yards, he's a Hall of Fame lock - maybe even first ballot.

This isn't even counting the added credibility a Super Bowl win would add.

[Cpt slay a ho]

Good stuff, Smith looks like he has plenty of juice.........this man had revis number in the play-offs

[Kevin Greene]

HOF bound

[PhillyB]

he'll go in as a panther and the circle will be complete.

[B.BERSIN]

He would be in the HOF.

[RelaxImaPro]

What's a shame is you look at all those top receivers and nearly all of them have something in common.  All of them have had consistent QB play virtually their entire career.

 

 

Jerry Rice:  Joe Montana, Steve Young - two of the greatest QBs of all time, arguments are made for both for being the GOAT

 

Terrell Owens:  Steve Young, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo - McNabb was a fuging great QB back in his prime, and despite the anti-Romo circlejerk, he's a really good QB himself

 

Randy Moss:  Randall Cunningham, Daunte Culpepper, Tom Brady - Cunningham and Culpepper, once again really good QBs in their prime, and that Moss/Brady combo was lethal.  Brady is obviously another GOAT candidate

 

Steve Smith:  Rodney Peete, Chris Weinke, Jake Delhomme, Vinnie Testeverde, post Tommy John surgery Jake Delhomme, Matt Moore, Brian St. Pierre, Jimmy Clausen, Cam Newton.

 

The only two on Steve's QB list on the level of the others is Cam and (good) Jake.  Jake was bad as much as he was good, post surgery Jake was pretty below average.  By the time Cam got here Steve was old as hell, and he really only got 3 good seasons out of Jake.

 

Imagine if he had consistent QB play his entire career back when he was in his prime... imagine what his numbers would be considering that, plus the fact he was looked over his first 2 seasons as being solely a return man.  He was also usually the only real threat on offense, constantly facing double and triple coverage... on a heavy run-first team his whole career.

 

Steve Smith's career is always going to be the "What could have been..." to me.