comp picks?

[KendrickPanther]

I thought Lafell got pretty good money compared to Captain and Ginn. This stuff is so confusing. It's easier to just wait and see. But these picks are great for picking up offensive lineman with question marks or special teams players.

[CarolinaNCSU]

My God it's going to be awesome to have a full draft of picks, AND comp picks for once. 

[MHS831]

# of players doesn't matter really only salaries matter.

 

There is some truth to this.  I was going to say that we have (in my opinion) 2 primary needs:

LOT

#2 WR

 

Secondary needs:

CB  (a nickel would be nice)

SS (Maybe, assuming that Jones and Harper are not satisfactory there)

DT We will need depth, but I expect this to be a free agent thing

OT Some depth to develop and competition for Remmers/Chandler

KR/PR  Maybe the WR and or CB could do it.

RB Another RB to carry the load when DW gets cut

 

Considering free agency and undrafted free agents, we don't really need extra low-end draft picks.

[TheSpecial1]

Could see LaFell netting us more than Mitchell. Very possible he ends with 1,000 yards after the Super Bowl in addition to his 7 TDs.

 

Good point.

[O-Ther]

Hey guys, this is Nick, the writer of the OTC article on the comp picks.  Since I remembered I had a very old account here, I just wanted to additionally make a Panthers-specific point that I really couldn't include in the main post due to length (so many things to deal with on this subject!).  Anyway, you guys should be fairly optimistic that Cason and Webb won't count.  I was particularly generous with the low-level signings in this projection due to the fact that from last year a few low-level guys somehow qualified when they wouldn't have in the past.  I honestly don't know how it's going to turn out since it's a newish development, so I decided not to cherry pick too much and just include everybody.  But since Cason was a bargain basement signing at $730k (and cut to boot, but it was late enough that that shouldn't matter), and Webb, as TheSpecial1 mentioned, hardly played, it would not surprise me if the Panthers get one or two 6ths when it's all said and done.  I think mario laid it out very well--definitely count on the 5th for Mitchell, and be cautiously hopeful for 6ths.

 

Thanks for the additional info Nick. We appreciate hearing from you directly and hope it happens more often.

 

[mario]

I thought Lafell got pretty good money compared to Captain and Ginn. This stuff is so confusing. It's easier to just wait and see. But these picks are great for picking up offensive lineman with question marks or special teams players.

Captain got the most money all of the 3 average-wise. In fact LaFell is the one with the cheapest contract out of the 3. The difference isn't very big so that's why they all are valued as 6th round players.

 

Could see LaFell netting us more than Mitchell. Very possible he ends with 1,000 yards after the Super Bowl in addition to his 7 TDs.

Perfomance is a big myth in the comp picks formula. The NFL doesn't have a way to determine if a said WR played better than a LB, they don't have something tangible to determine that: it's all about the money. Mitchell got 5M/year while LaFell only got 3M/year putting them in different tiers so there's no way LaFell net us a better pick than Mitchell (or one in the same round for that matter).

 

Now the NFL could use something like % of snaps played to arrange players in the same tier, that's why i think LaFell will have better value than Ginn despite signing a cheaper contract. Doesn't matter one bit since they still have a 6th round value and Cotchery will cancel one of the 2.

[jbland]

smitty, ginn, lafell and mitchell all going to the playoffs with different teams

We cut Smitty. There will be no pic for him. Maybe the other two.

[Orange Habit]

I just made an update to the projection that, unfortunately, opens up a bad scenario for Carolina.  Basically, someone pointed out that I missed Ed Dickson in the original version.  However, even though the program is currently projecting that bad scenario, I still think you should be fairly optimistic.  Here's the part of the update that's Panther-specific:

 

http://overthecap.com/2015-compensatory-draft-pick-projection-update-additional-qualifying-ufas-thoughts-playing-time/

 

 

In the post that contains my projections for the awarding of compensatory picks for the 2015 draft, one reader noticed that I had made no mention of Ed Dickson, who went from Baltimore to Carolina on a minimum salary benefit deal of $795,000 on April 10, 2014.  Indeed, other than for the fact that his deal might be too small to qualify, Dickson is a player that should otherwise be part of the formula the way I have it crafted.  I took a look at the UFA document I used as a data source, and noticed that it was as of April 7, 2014–explaining why I missed Dickson in the first version.

[...]

For Carolina, however, including Dickson could potentially hurt them greatly.  If all four of Carolina’s UFA gains (Jerricho Cotchery, Antoine Cason, Dickson, and Joe Webb) qualify, they will cancel out all four of their UFA losses (Mike Mitchell, Captain Munnerlyn, Ted Ginn, Brandon LaFell).  In that scenario, Carolina would still be eligible for a net value compensatory pick (the value of their lost UFAs is more than two and a half times greater than their gains), but such a pick would still fall below the 32-pick limit.

[...]

Although the unawarded net-value pick is now the only thing that the program is giving to Carolina, if I were a Panthers fan I would still be rather optimistic that it won’t be this bad.  This is because although the program is currently generous with qualifying players, it is likely that some of those “bubble” players earning below $800,000 won’t qualify.  Webb in particular is the one I am most skeptical about, considering that he only played in 2% of the offensive snaps.  That alone should still earn Carolina a 5th for Mitchell in the end, and more non-qualifications could add a 6th or two in their favor.

 

In the main comp pick post, here are the new altering scenarios for Carolina:

 

http://overthecap.com/projecting-the-compensatory-draft-picks-for-2015/

 

• Carolina
  • If any one of Antoine Cason, Ed Dickson or Joe Webb do not qualify, Carolina will get a 5th for Mike Mitchell.
  • If any two of Antoine Cason, Ed Dickson or Joe Webb do not qualify, Carolina will get a 5th for Mike Mitchell and a 6th for Captain Munnerlyn.
  • If all three of Antoine Cason, Ed Dickson and Joe Webb do not qualify, Carolina will get a 5th for Mike Mitchell and two 6ths for Captain Munnerlyn and Ted Ginn.

In the end, I still stand by what I said earlier and think the Panthers get that 5th for Mitchell--with the 6ths being less certain but still very possible.

[The Huddler]

Is it possible that Gettleman knew that letting these guys go would most likely net comp picks?

Saving money, getting picks... and replacing them with his guys.

If we get a 5th for mitchell, thats like trading him for a bene benwikere caliber player.

Instead of paying mitchell 25mil, we draft a bene caliber player, which saves money and its youth..

Hmmm

[ctrcat]

Is it possible that Gettleman knew that letting these guys go would most likely net comp picks?

Saving money, getting picks... and replacing them with his guys.

If we get a 5th for mitchell, thats like trading him for a bene benwikere caliber player.

Instead of paying mitchell 25mil, we draft a bene caliber player, which saves money and its youth..

Hmmm

He's not the GeniusMan for nothing.

[Bj-Monster23]

When does the comp picks come out?

[Ricky Spanish]

When does the comp picks come out?

 

March I think,

[The NFL Shield At Midfield]

March I think,

 

lol at squirrel's post on the first page

[PantherWake]

Is it possible that Gettleman knew that letting these guys go would most likely net comp picks?

Saving money, getting picks... and replacing them with his guys.

If we get a 5th for mitchell, thats like trading him for a bene benwikere caliber player.

Instead of paying mitchell 25mil, we draft a bene caliber player, which saves money and its youth..

Hmmm

He probably had that in mind but I don't it was the main reason for letting them go. I think he wanted to keep some of them.