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4th Quarter Comebacks is a bogus statistic

frash.exe

By frash.exe,
in Carolina Panthers

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frash.exe Apprentice

frash.exe

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May put some of the 4th Quarter frenzy people like to front whenever there is a reasonable critique about Delhomme into perspective, also this applies to just about any QB.

Forty-seven. The most famous number when it comes to quarterbacks and fourth quarter comebacks is 47. It may also be the most misleading number in NFL history. No matter what source you look at, John Elway is credited with a NFL record 47 comebacks in the 4th quarter. This leads much credence to the “clutchness” of a QB in his career, and is often cited in debates between Elway and other great QBs. But if you research all of his wins, you will have found that he is being credited for comeback wins in a game that ended in an overtime tie, and in several games the Broncos never trailed in the fourth quarter. You cannot come back when there’s no deficit to come back from. Dan Marino, always credited with 37 comebacks, has been ranked in 2nd place since retirement. Even DanMarino.com has 37.

Currently, Marino sits 3rd behind Favre (42 is the widely reported number) and Elway (lucky 47). But when the PR staff for the Miami Dolphins exclude wins that the Dolphins never trailed in the 4th quarter, while the Favre and Elway people do not, does that not suggest a serious issue with the validity of these “records”? And why has this been allowed to go on for over a decade?

Lets now go over the rules required for something to count as a 4th quarter comeback...

For it to be a 4th quarter comeback win, you must:

* Win the game (no ties or losses)

* Take the field with a 1–8 pt deficit (1–7 prior to 1994) and score as an offense (no fumble return TD to win the game)

* It does not have to be the final winning score (hence, that applies to the number of game-winning drives)

Adjusted by level parameters for both Elway and Marino, Marino beats Elway in 4th Quarter comebacks in any set.

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frash.exe Apprentice

frash.exe

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lol i didn't even realize there was a part 2 to this article...

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=3401

The ideal 4th quarter comeback analysis would be to:

1. Identify the games where a comeback (from a 1–8 pt deficit) was possible: this gives you all successes and failures. Just telling me a QB has 10 comebacks does not mean a whole heck of a lot. But if you tell me he has 10 comebacks in 13 comeback opportunities, I can probably say he’s doing a great job. If he has 10 comebacks in 30 opportunities, he might be someone only as good as Jon Kitna.

2. Identify the situation of the drive: time it started and ended, starting field position, number of timeouts, etc. Not all comebacks/drives are created equal. It’s a lot harder to come back from a 4-8 pt deficit with 30 seconds and no timeouts than it is to start the 4th quarter on the 1-yard line, down by a point.

3. Collect the drive statistics: attempts, completions, yards, length and number of plays, etc. Just your usual QB statistics. Obviously going 8/8 for 80 yards and a TD beats going 1/5 for 8 yards to set up a long FG.

4. Create advanced statistics to better understand performance: average deficit, average yards to go, average time left, points per drive, percentage of 3-and-outs, turnover likelihood, “blown saves”, etc. Along with having the number of successes and failures, this would be the most useful part of comeback

analysis. This is how you can begin to answer who’s really the biggest choker in the league. Unfortunately you need solid play-by-play data here, so the number of seasons you can obtain this type of data is greatly limited.

The problem is that we’re still stuck in stage one after all these years. Due to a semantics argument/hiccup/tie-up, no one is able to agree on a consensus definition of what a 4th quarter comeback or game-winning drive in the 4th quarter/overtime is.

Take a look at this game for Drew Bledsoe. The Patriots trailed 13-10 to start the 4th quarter. They got a FG to tie it, later a FG to win it. 4th quarter comeback for Drew right? Well, a look at the play-by-play shows the final play of the 3rd quarter was a failed 3rd down conversion by the Patriot offense. The first play of the 4th quarter was a 21 yard field goal by Adam Vinatieri on 4th down. That means Bledsoe and the offense never took the field in the 4th quarter with a deficit, therefore no comeback opportunity. It’s a game-winning drive only. I do have a fear that for seasons without play-by-play data on the net that these types of things can happen once in a while where the first play of the 4th quarter is a tying/go-ahead FG.

Let’s stick with another Bledsoe example. This time, it’s a game from 1995.

The game was tied at 14 to start the 4th QT. After Bledsoe leads a FG drive, Boomer Esiason throws a TD for a 21-17 Jets lead. On the ensuing kickoff, Dave Meggett fumbles, but sure-handed teammate Troy Brown is there to scoop up the ball and return it 75 yards for a TD and 24-21 lead. Ty Law intercepts Boomer, Curtis Martin puts it away with a 1-yard TD run. Bledsoe should not get credit for a comeback, as it was purely a special teams play that erased the one deficit they had in the quarter. But, by virtue of his FG drive when it was tied at 14, he is credited with a 4th quarter win.

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frash.exe Apprentice

frash.exe

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ROFL this guy owns the 4th Q comeback stat

QB Reported Actual

John Elway 47 34

Brett Favre 42 27

Dan Marino 37 36

Peyton Manning 37 28

Drew Bledsoe 32 24

Joe Montana 31 31

Johnny Unitas 31 34

Tom Brady 28 20

Roger Staubach 23 15

Ben Roethlisberger 19 15

Chad Pennington 7 7

Jay Cutler 7 5

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frash.exe Apprentice

frash.exe

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This doesn't mean it's a bogus statistic, just that you need specific criteria to define exactly what a comeback win is. Don't worry though, I'm sure you'll find plenty of other ways to hate on Jake.

uh, no actually because there isn't a truly official definition out there makes it a bogus statistic. Everybody's got their own definition of a 4th quarter comeback, and often that plus "game-winning drives" are often interspersed with one another.

Even teams haven't adopted a formal set of parameters to go by, either because nobody cares that much to change it or they would rather not take some of the luster away from their much heralded QB's legacy.

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frash.exe Apprentice

frash.exe

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Maybe you can start an e-petition to get some formal parameters for this random statistic.

maybe if people didn't display this common misconception of which different sources post different totals for and is only a small part of a QB's entire body of work, and anyway doesn't put the contribution of RBs, WRs, OL, Defense etc into consideration, like it's the ultimate measure of a QB i wouldn't have to make this thread you're getting so butthurt about

I used to think this "stat" was credible until I saw this article, now it's pretty much irrelevant to me when you really think about it.

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KillerKat Grand Master

KillerKat

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This doesn't mean it's a bogus statistic, just that you need specific criteria to define exactly what a comeback win is. Don't worry though, I'm sure you'll find plenty of other ways to hate on Jake.

Which would mean the stat is currently bogus ehh?? There's 12 other QB's mentioned in the list. Delhomme wasn't even in the article. Elway and Favre suffered the greatest according to the new definition that's still under development. It's just showing that come from behind wins are a worthless stat to make a case for a QB right now and many Panther fans use it whenever legit critiques of Delhomme are brought up. Truth hurts.

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frash.exe

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Well get on that KK, break down all the "supposed" 4th quarter comebacks so we know which ones are legit. Lord knows we can't have the abuse of some random statistic.

a lot of people think it's reputable, it's not as random as you'd like to believe.

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KillerKat Grand Master

KillerKat

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Well get on that KK, break down all the "supposed" 4th quarter comebacks so we know which ones are legit. Lord knows we can't have the abuse of some random statistic.

Did you read the article? Seems like all you did was read RB's first sentence and you got your feelings hurt. The new definition has 4 phases and they're just now on phase 1. This stat is still under development.

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KillerKat Grand Master

KillerKat

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Stat is under development LOL

There are parameters that are pretty clear cut (did you read the article?) Go ahead and apply those and post the results so we aren't fooled by any shenanigans.

........

This is how you can begin to answer who’s really the biggest choker in the league. Unfortunately you need solid play-by-play data here, so the number of seasons you can obtain this type of data is greatly limited.

The problem is that we’re still stuck in stage one after all these years. Due to a semantics argument/hiccup/tie-up, no one is able to agree on a consensus definition of what a 4th quarter comeback or game-winning drive in the 4th quarter/overtime is.

If these people are having trouble getting play-by-play data of each QB, how the hell am I going to have it? If you can't use logic to understand that, we don't have anything else to discuss. Go out and get the data and come back with the results if you want them that bad. The whole point of the article was just to show how worthless of a stat it is to rely on.

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